alu

目前所在的海溫低了點，如果繼續往西走泰國附近海溫較高點容易發產起來，最後可能越過泰國進入北印度洋那邊

t02436

JTWC 06Z降評Low

B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 6.4N
108.9E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 6.3N 107.3E, APPROXIMATELY 270 NM SOUTH
OF HO CHI MINH, VIETNAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
(MSI) DEPICTS A FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
WITH DIMINISHING ASSOCIATED CONVECTION. A 220217Z ASCAT PASS SHOWED
A WEAKER WIND FIELD THAT HAS BECOME MORE ELONGATED SINCE THE LAST
PASS. THE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS MARGINAL FOR FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT WITH WEAK DIVERGENT OUTFLOW AND MODERATE TO STRONG (20
TO 30 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). GLOBAL MODELS ARE NO LONGER
DEVELOPING THIS DISTURBANCE INTO A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. DUE TO
THE MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT AND THE WEAKENING IN THE OVERALL WIND
FIELD, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS DOWNGRADED TO LOW.

JMA 12Z維持TD

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1010 HPA AT 07N 104E WNW 10 KT.

甜心

:o中心即將穿越半島地區受環境影響它強度持續減弱當中，未來進入目前風切強勁的孟加拉灣雲系組織可能將逐漸消散。

alu

今天看了衛星雲圖，感覺雲層已經比以往消散不少，覺得JTWC應該在幾天內就會撤編