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99P 北澳陸上打轉 發展受限

簽到天數: 474 天

[LV.9]以壇為家II

2015-12-20 12:51 | 顯示全部樓層
基本資料     
編號    :99 P
擾動編號日期:2015 12 20 12
撤編日期  :2015 12 27 05
99P.INVEST.15kts.NAmb.15.1S.137.4E


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參與人數 1水氣能量 +10 收起 理由
king111807 + 10 贊一個!

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簽到天數: 474 天

[LV.9]以壇為家II

劉瑞益@FB|2015-12-20 17:55 | 顯示全部樓層
JTWC 0600Z評級為"Low"
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 15.1S 137.4E,
APPROXIMATELY 140 NM NORTHWEST OF MORNINGTON ISLAND, AUSTRALIA.
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 192159Z SSMIS 91 GHZ IMAGE
REVEAL BROAD MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING WITH FLARING DEEP CONVECTION
OVER THE GULF OF CARPENTARIA. A RECENT 200029Z ASCAT PASS SHOWS
SHARP SURFACE TROUGHING AND CONVERGENT WESTERLY FLOW WITH STRONG 25
TO 30 KNOT WINDS ALONG THE EASTERN PERIPHERY. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THE DISTURBANCE IS LOCATED IN A MARGINALLY-FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD DIFFLUENCE AND MODERATE TO STRONG (20 TO 30
KNOTS) VWS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO
15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW



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簽到天數: 241 天

[LV.8]以壇為家I

krichard2011|2015-12-24 18:07 | 顯示全部樓層
BoM 升格熱低 預測出海後仍有機會達到一級熱帶氣旋


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簽到天數: 474 天

[LV.9]以壇為家II

劉瑞益@FB|2015-12-27 01:27 | 顯示全部樓層
熱低壓在澳洲北部繞2圈後
中心即將出海 出海後仍有機會短暫發展


Intensity: tropical low, sustained winds near the centre of 45 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 85 kilometres per hour.
Location: within 75 kilometres of 15.3 degrees South, 133.5 degrees East , 160 kilometres southeast of Katherine and 145 kilometres west southwest of Ngukurr .
Movement: southeast at 5 kilometres per hour .

A tropical low over the central Top End is moving slowly east to southeast and may enter the southwest Gulf of Carpentaria overnight Sunday or Monday morning. It is expected to continue moving slowly east southeast near the southwest Gulf of Carpentaria coast. The low may develop into a tropical cyclone from Monday morning if it remains over water.




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簽到天數: 2259 天

[LV.Master]伴壇終老

alu|2015-12-27 01:46 | 顯示全部樓層
它能在澳洲陸地上打轉那麼久沒有減弱已經不錯了,我還是第一次看見熱帶擾動在陸地上沒有減弱或消失不見的

點評

那邊有個大平原 所以熱帶氣旋還得以保持 前幾年有一個一路從北領地慢慢走到南澳洲  發表於 2015-12-27 15:26
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簽到天數: 2321 天

[LV.Master]伴壇終老

t02436|2015-12-27 10:56 | 顯示全部樓層
JTWC 01Z取消評級
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 14.9S
134.0E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.0S 134.6E, 300NM SOUTHEAST OF DARWIN,
AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED COMPOSITE RADAR FROM TINDAL, AUSTRALIA,
INDICATES THE SYSTEM HAS MOVED FURTHER SOUTHEASTWARD INLAND AND IS
NO LONGER EXPECTED TO EMERGE OVER THE GULF OF CARPENTARIA.
CONSEQUENTLY, THIS DISTURBANCE IS NO LONGER SUSPECT FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

BoM 01Z預測系統不會進入卡奔塔利亞灣,不再上望一級熱帶氣旋
此報為該系統最後一報。

Details of Tropical Low at 9:30 am ACST:

Intensity: tropical low, sustained winds near the centre of 30 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 85 kilometres per hour.
Location: within 75 kilometres of 15.4 degrees South, 134.6 degrees East , 75 kilometres south of Ngukurr and 195 kilometres west northwest of Borroloola .
Movement: east at 10 kilometres per hour .

A tropical low over the western Carpentaria District is expected to move east to southeast and be located near the southwest Gulf of Carpentaria coast during the next few days. The tropical low is no longer expected to spend enough time over water to develop into a tropical cyclone.




Next Issue
There will be no further Forecast Track Maps issued for this system unless it reintensifies.

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簽到天數: 2188 天

[LV.Master]伴壇終老

甜心|2015-12-27 16:28 | 顯示全部樓層
本帖最後由 甜心 於 2015-12-27 16:34 編輯

它天生所在的地理條件不佳使它的中心受到地形破壞結構嚴重受損發展受阻,目前JTWC 已經取消的評價若無法盡快穿越北澳東北角地區進入海洋的話它恐怕將被刪編。
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