Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI 2103 UTC.
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 05F [1004HPA] WAS ANALYSED NEAR 10.1S 164.2E AT
260600UTC. TD05F SLOW MOVING. POSITION POOR BASED ON MTSAT IR IMAGERY
AND PERIPHERAL REPORTS.
CONVECTION HAS INCREASED IN THE PAST 24 HOURS. ORGANISATION REMAINS
POOR. SYSTEM LIES UNDER AN UPPER RIDGE IN A MODERATE TO HIGH SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT. CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDS TO 700HPA. SST AROUND 30
DEGREE CELCIUS.
GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND SLOWLY MOVE IT EASTWARDS
WITH SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION.
POTENTIAL FOR TD05F TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24
TO 48 HOURS IS LOW.
NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ANALYSED OR FORECAST IN THE
AREA.
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 9.6S
165.9E, HAS DISSIPATED AND IS NO LONGER SUSPECT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
FMS 21Z另外編號07F
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 07F [999HPA] WAS ANALYSED NEAR 10.1S 160.2E AT
282100UTC. TD07F SLOW MOVING. POSITION POOR BASED ON MTSAT IR IMAGERY
AND PERIPHERAL REPORTS.
CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTANT. ORGANISATION POOR. SYSTEM LIES JUST TO
THE SOUTH OF AN UPPER RIDGE IN A MODERATE TO HIGH SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT. CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDS TO 700HPA. SST AROUND 30
DEGREE CELCIUS.
GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND SLOWLY MOVE IT EASTWARDS
WITH SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION.
POTENTIAL FOR TD07F TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24
TO 48 HOURS IS MODERATE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 11.7S 176.3E,
APPROXIMATELY 370 NM NORTH OF NADI, FIJI. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A SYMMETRIC AREA OF DEEP
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC). A 301026Z METOP-B 89GHZ IMAGE SHOWS FORMATIVE BANDING OVER
THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE OF THE LLCC. A 300932Z ASCAT IMAGE DEPICTS
AN ELONGATED CIRCULATION WITH STRONG (30 TO 35 KNOT) WESTERLY WINDS
OVER THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND 10 TO 15 KNOT WINDS OVER THE
SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE
SYSTEM IS LOCATED WITHIN A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT ALONG THE LEADING
EDGE OF A DEEP SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITH MODERATE TO STRONG VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR OFFSET BY ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 999 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS LOW.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TD07F [998HPA] ANALYSED NEAR 17.8S 177.9E AT
010600UTC MOVING SOUTH AT 10 KNOTS. POSITION POOR BASED ON MTSAT IR
IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL REPORTS.
CONVECTION HAS SLIGHTLY DECREASED. SYSTEM LIES UNDER AN UPPER RIDGE
IN A MODERATE TO HIGH SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
EXTENDS TO 500HPA. SST AROUND 29 DEGREE CELSIUS.
GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND SLOWLY MOVE IT
SOUTHEASTWARDS WITH SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION.
POTENTIAL FOR TD07F TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24
TO 48 HOURS IS LOW TO MODERATE.
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