0908morakot

  二級颶風  
編號：01 C
名稱：Pali


  基本資料  
擾動編號日期：2016 年 01 月 06 日 08 時
命名日期　　：2016 年 01 月 08 日 05 時
撤編日期　　：2016 年 01 月 16 日 11 時
登陸地點　　：無

  巔峰時期資料  
近中心最強風速 ：85  kt ( CAT.2 )
海平面最低氣壓 ：977 百帕

  過去路徑圖  


  討論帖圖片  
90C.INVEST.25kts-1006mb-2.0N-171.7W


以上資料來自：CPHC、颱風論壇整理製作

alu

這個擾動是去年那個從西太編號99 W 改中太 90 C的那個擾動還是新的擾動呢:dizzy:，怎麼還是同一個編號，我記得編號是往上加一號不重複

蜜露

這應該是之前09C那次時.減弱後中間很長一段時間的熱帶雲團. 本來GFS數值是多天後逐漸發展
跟這個反應相似.

但是不同的是路徑了. 之前是支持進入西太增強.存活至1月中. 現在GFS數值改成慢慢轉北移動.
強度支持發展.

這個就是GFS和EC最大的差別 , GFS前陣還預報大溪地附近會有一個猛貨. 結果09C出現後. 又有變局了







這個比09C好多了

蜜露

90C 這幾個對流對流猛爆,已經到爆表的位置.
RAMMB能顯示白的. 未來數直持續調強. 有機會獲得中太最早命名的紀錄

去年09C是中太最晚編號+中太緯度最低.

而這個90C有機會獲得中太最早編號,甚至命名.



EC也反應了09C. 而且有調強些. 也有機會跨越180度進入西太的可能性.

輻合 輻散 海溫都有相當好的條件.

陳約禮@FB

WTPN21 PHNC 062030
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 3.0N 171.4W TO 7.2N 172.0W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 061800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 3.3N 171.4W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING EASTWARD AT 06 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 3.3N 171.4W,
APPROXIMATELY 808 NM SOUTH OF JOHNSTON ATOLL. RECENT ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 061747Z SSMIS 91 GHZ IMAGE
DEPICT A BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP
CONVECTIVE BANDING BEGINNING TO CONSOLIDATE. RECENT SCATTEROMETRY
DATA INDICATE 20 KNOT WINDS IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE SYSTEM WITH
ISOLATED 25 KNOT OBSERVATIONS ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS THE SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA FAVORABLE FOR
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT, WITH MODERATE-STRONG (25 TO 30 KNOTS) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (VWS) OFFSET BY NEAR RADIAL OUTFLOW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. DUE TO INCREASING
CONSOLIDATION OF THE LLCC AND FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT, THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
072030Z.//
NNNN

JTWC於1/6 2030Z發布TCFA
螺旋型態看來還不錯

螺旋型態看來還不錯

jwpk9899

升格01C   罕見的中太1月TC也是最早生成的中太TC

t02436

CPHC初報上望45節，預計12小時內命名，短期內暫時沒有進入西太的可能

WTPA41 PHFO 071459
TCDCP1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-C DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   CP012016
500 AM HST THU JAN 07 2016

THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE FAR
SOUTHWEST CORNER OF THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE AREA OF
RESPONSIBILITY HAVE PERSISTED SUFFICIENTLY LONG TO CLASSIFY THE
SYSTEM AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE. THIS LOW-LATITUDE OUT-OF-SEASON SYSTEM
HAS TAPPED INTO SIGNIFICANT DIRECTIONAL SHEAR OF THE LOW-LEVEL
WINDS...WITH AN EL-NINO RELATED WESTERLY WIND BURST SOUTH OF THE
SYSTEM...AND PREVAILING EASTERLY TRADE WINDS TO THE NORTH PROVIDING
THE LARGE SCALE CONDITIONS CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT. SUBJECTIVE
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGE FROM 1.5/25 KT FROM PHFO/SAB TO
2.0/30 KT FROM PGTW...AND THE INTENSITY FOR THIS INITIAL ADVISORY IS
ESTIMATED TO BE 30 KT.

THE CYCLONE IS IN AN AREA OF WEAK STEERING FLOW...HAS BEEN
DRIFTING GENERALLY NORTHWARD OVER THE PAST DAY OR SO...AND THE
INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE FOR THIS ADVISORY IS 350/04 KT. TRACK
GUIDANCE IS SPLIT INTO TWO FAIRLY DISTINCT CAMPS...WITH THE
DIFFERENCES MOST SIGNIFICANT AFTER 72 HOURS. A SLOW MOTION TOWARD
THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST IS ANTICIPATED FOR THE NEXT TWO TO THREE
DAYS...TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE CENTERED TO THE
NORTHWEST. AFTER THIS TIME...THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD EASTWARD
WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE...BUT A TROUGH UNDERCUTTING THE
RIDGE IS WHERE MODEL DIFFERENCES ARISE. THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
TROUGH FIRST INDUCES A REDUCTION IN FORWARD SPEED...AND THEN AN EAST
TO SOUTHEASTWARD MOTION IN THE GFS/HWRF/GFDL/TVCN SOLUTIONS. THE
ECMWF/NAVGEM/CMC ON THE OTHER HAND DEPICT A WEAKER TROUGH...AND
MAINTAIN A MOTION TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AS THE CYCLONE IS
STEERED BY THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LIES CLOSE
TO THE BULK OF THE GUIDANCE AND TVCN CONSENSUS THROUGH 72
HOURS...AND THEN FAVORS THE SOLUTION OFFERED BY THE
GFS/HWRF/GFDL/TVCN...FORECASTING A TURN TOWARD THE EAST AND
SOUTHEAST.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS IVCN AND SHIPS GUIDANCE...
ANTICIPATING A RELATIVELY SMALL WINDOW FOR STRENGTHENING OVER THE
NEXT DAY OR SO...WITH LITTLE CHANGE UNTIL DAYS 4 AND 5. DESPITE THE
SEASON...SSTS ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK ARE SUFFICIENTLY WARM TO
SUPPORT A STRONG TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE LIMITING FACTOR IS EXPECTED
TO BE INCREASING EASTERLY SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRENGTHENING
RIDGE TO THE NORTH...AND THE DEVELOPING TROUGH ALOFT IN WHICH THE
CYCLONE MAY BECOME EMBEDDED.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  07/1500Z  4.0N 171.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
12H  08/0000Z  4.8N 171.6W   40 KT  45 MPH
24H  08/1200Z  5.7N 172.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
36H  09/0000Z  6.6N 172.8W   45 KT  50 MPH
48H  09/1200Z  7.0N 173.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
72H  10/1200Z  7.5N 173.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
96H  11/1200Z  7.5N 172.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
120H  12/1200Z  7.0N 171.5W   35 KT  40 MPH

$$

FORECASTER BIRCHARD