B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12.7S
165.3W, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.2S 165.3W, APPROXIMATELY 319 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF PAGO PAGO, AMERICAN SAMOA. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS BETTER CONSOLIDATED DEEP CONVECTION. A 140109Z 19GHZ
AMSU PASS DEPICTS DEEP CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) FROM THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY. A 132050Z
ASCAT PASS SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED LLCC WITH 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS
WRAPPING AROUND THE CENTER AND ISOLATED 30 KNOT WINDS WITHIN THE
CONVECTION TO THE NORTHEAST. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE (15-20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
OFFSET BY STRONG DIVERGENT OUTFLOW. IN ADDITION, SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ARE NEAR 30 CELSIUS. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW SIGNIFICANT
DEVELOPMENT AS IT TRACKS TO THE SOUTH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1001 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.
FMS 18Z已升格熱帶低壓，00Z預測36小時內命名
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A3 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Jan 140153 UTC.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08F CENTRE 999HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.2S 165.3W
AT 140000 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON HR GOES IR IMAGERY. DEPRESSION
SLOW MOVING. MAXIMUM 10 MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE
ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 25 KNOTS.
DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTENT BUT DETACHED FROM SUPPOSED LLCC.
ORGANISATION HAS IMPROVED PAST 24 HOURS. OUTFLOW GOOD TO THE SOUTH
AND EAST. SST AROUND 30 DEGREES CELCIUS. SYSTEM LIES UNDER A MODERATE
UPPER DIVERGENCE REGION IN A LOW TO MODERATE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT.
DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON 0.25 WRAP YEILDS DT=1.5, MET AND PT AGREE.
FT BASED ON DT. THUS YIELDING T1.5/1.5/D0.5/24HRS.
GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND SLOWLY MOVE IT
SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD WITH FURTHER INTENSIFICATION.
POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE
NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS MODERATE TO HIGH.
FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 141200 UTC 14.0S 164.4W MOV SE AT 06KT WITH 30 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 150000 UTC 15.2S 164.4W MOV SSE AT 05KT WITH 30 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
OUTLOOK
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 151200 UTC 16.1S 163.9W MOV SSE AT 05KT WITH 35 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 160000 UTC 17.1S 163.3W MOV SSE AT 05KT WITH 40 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TD08F WILL BE ISSUED AROUND
140800 UTC.
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A7 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Jan 150207 UTC.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08F CENTRE 996HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.1S 165.0W
AT 150000 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON HR GOES IR IMAGERY. DEPRESSION
MOVING SOUTH AT 5 KTS. MAXIMUM 10 MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE
CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 30 KNOTS.
DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTENT WITH CONVECTIVE BANDS TRYING TO
WRAP AROUND LLCC. ORGANISATION HAS HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH IN PAST 6
HOURS. OUTFLOW GOOD. SST AROUND 30 DEGREES CELCIUS. SYSTEM LIES UNDER
A STRONG UPPER DIVERGENCE REGION AND IN A LOW TO MODERATE SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON 0.55 WRAP YEILDS DT=2.5, MET
AND PT AGREE. FT BASED ON DT. THUS YIELDING T2.5/2.5/D1.0/24HRS.
GLOBAL MODELS MAINTAIN A SOUTHWARD TRACK WITH FURTHER
INTENSIFICATION.
POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE
NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
FORECASTS : AT 12 HRS VALID AT 151200 UTC 15.6S 165.6W MOV SW AT 04KT WITH 40 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 160000 UTC 16.0S 166.1W MOV SW AT 03KT WITH 45 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
OUTLOOK
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 161200 UTC 16.4S 166.4W MOV SW AT 03KT WITH 50 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 170000 UTC 17.3S 166.3W MOV SSW AT 03KT WITH 55 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TD08F WILL BE ISSUED AROUND
150800 UTC.
** WTPS11 NFFN 150600 ***
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A8 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Jan 150730 UTC.
TROPICAL CYCLONE VICTOR CENTRE 995HPA CATEGORY 1 WAS LOCATED NEAR
14.7S 166.3W AT 150600 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON HR GOES IR
IMAGERY. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 08 KTS. MAXIMUM 10 MINUTE
AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 35 KNOTS.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 130 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT,
WITHIN 130 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT,
WITHIN 100 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT,
AND WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT.
DEEP CONVECTION HAS INCREASED WITH CONVECTIVE BANDS WRAPPING AROUND
LLCC. ORGANISATION HAS IMPROVED IN THE PAST 24 HOURS. OUTFLOW GOOD.
SST AROUND 29 TO 30 DEGREES CELCIUS. SYSTEM LIES UNDER A STRONG UPPER
DIVERGENCE REGION AND IN A LOW SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. DVORAK ANALYSIS
BASED ON 0.65 WRAP YEILDS DT=3.0, MET AND PT AGREE. FT BASED ON DT.
THUS YIELDING T3.0/3.0/D1.0/24HRS.
GLOBAL MODELS MAINTAIN A SOUTHWARD TRACK WITH FURTHER
INTENSIFICATION.
FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 151800 UTC 15.2S 167.0W MOV SW AT 04KT WITH 45 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 160600 UTC 15.4S 167.6W MOV WSW AT 04KT WITH 45 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
OUTLOOK
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 161800 UTC 16.0S 167.7W MOV SW AT 03KT WITH 50 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 170600 UTC 17.2S 167.4W MOV SS AT 06KT WITH 55 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON VICTOR WILL BE ISSUED
AROUND 151400 UTC.
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A9 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Jan 151321 UTC.
TROPICAL CYCLONE VICTOR CENTRE 985HPA CATEGORY 2 WAS LOCATED NEAR
14.4S 166.2W AT 151200 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON HR GOES IR
IMAGERY. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 05 KTS. MAXIMUM 10 MINUTE
AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 50 KNOTS.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 40 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 130 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT,
WITHIN 130 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT,
WITHIN 100 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT,
AND WITHIN 100 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT.
DEEP CONVECTION HAS INCREASED WITH CONVECTIVE BANDS WRAPPING AROUND
LLCC. ORGANISATION HAS IMPROVED IN THE PAST 24 HOURS. OUTFLOW GOOD.
SST AROUND 30 DEGREES CELCIUS. SYSTEM LIES UNDER A STRONG UPPER
DIVERGENCE REGION AND IN A LOW SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. DVORAK ANALYSIS
BASED ON 0.95 WRAP YEILDS DT=3.5, MET AND PT AGREE. FT BASED ON DT.
THUS YIELDING T3.5/3.5/D1.5/24HRS.
GLOBAL MODELS MAINTAIN A SOUTHWARD TRACK WITH FURTHER
INTENSIFICATION.
FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 160000 UTC 14.6S 166.6W MOV WSW AT 02KT WITH 60 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 161200 UTC 15.1S 166.9W MOV SW AT 02KT WITH 60 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
OUTLOOK
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 170000 UTC 15.9S 166.9W MOV S AT 04KT WITH 70 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 171200 UTC 17.1S 166.7W MOV S AT 06KT WITH 75 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON VICTOR WILL BE ISSUED
AROUND 152000 UTC.
HURRICANE WARNING 076 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Jan 160418 UTC.
TROPICAL CYCLONE VICTOR CENTRE 975HPA CATEGORY 3 WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.0 SOUTH
165.9 WEST AT 160300 UTC.POSITION FAIR.
REPEAT POSITION 15.0S 165.9W AT 160300 UTC.
CYCLONE MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AT 02 KNOTS. CYCLONE INTENSIFYING.
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 65 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE INCREASING TO 90 KNOTS BY
170000 UTC.
EXPECT WNDS OVER 63 KNOTS WITHIN 20 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE,
OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 40 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE,
OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 130 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT,
WITHIN 130 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT,
WITHIN 180 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT,
AND WITHIN 180 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT.
FORECAST POSITION NEAR 15.5S 166.1W AT 161500 UTC
AND NEAR 16.5S 166.2W AT 170300 UTC.
ALL VESSELS WITHIN 300 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE ARE REQUESTED TO SEND REPORTS
EVERY THREE HOURS TO RSMC NADI. VOS REPORTING SHIPS USE NORMAL CHANNELS. OTHER
VESSELS FAX PLUS 679 6720190 OR EMAIL NADITCC AT MET DOT GOV DOT FJ
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