IDW27600
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0118 UTC 28/01/2016
Name: Tropical Low
Identifier: 08U
Data At: 0000 UTC
Latitude: 15.4S
Longitude: 117.7E
Location Accuracy: within 60 nm [110 km]
Movement Towards: south [189 deg]
Speed of Movement: 6 knots [11 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 25 knots [45 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 45 knots [85 km/h]
Central Pressure: 1001 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds: 90 nm [165 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code:
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1004 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 45 nm [85 km]
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+06: 28/0600: 16.0S 117.6E: 070 [135]: 025 [045]: 1001
+12: 28/1200: 16.6S 117.7E: 085 [155]: 030 [055]: 999
+18: 28/1800: 17.3S 117.9E: 095 [180]: 030 [055]: 996 +24: 29/0000: 18.0S 117.9E: 110 [200]: 040 [075]: 993
+36: 29/1200: 19.2S 118.2E: 130 [240]: 045 [085]: 989
+48: 30/0000: 20.5S 118.4E: 150 [275]: 045 [085]: 989
+60: 30/1200: 22.5S 118.9E: 170 [310]: 025 [045]: 1000
+72: 31/0000: 25.6S 120.4E: 185 [345]: 025 [045]: 1002
+96: 01/0000: 30.1S 127.0E: 230 [430]: 025 [045]: 1002
+120: 02/0000: 34.5S 135.9E: 320 [590]: 025 [045]: 1002
REMARKS:
The low was difficult to locate using visible, infra red and microwave imagery
with uncertainty of 60 nautical miles.
SSTs in the area are 30-32C, decreasing to 28-30C near the Pilbara coast.
Dvorak: Initial T1.0 classification at 270600 UTC. Curved band wrap between 0.2
and 0.3 over the past 6 hours gives a DT of 2.0. FT/CI set to 2.0. Intensity set
to 25 knots [10 minute average].
ASCAT passes overnight showed a tight circulation with 20 to 30 knot winds
removed to the northeast of the low with 10 to 20 knots near the centre.
CIMSS shear at 2100 UTC showed about 20 knots of east to northeast shear.
Most NWP guidance now show a steady southward track towards the Pilbara coast
with a small spread of tracks. Landfall is forecast to occur generally between
291800 UTC to 300400 UTC. The system may intensify into a tropical cyclone
during Friday and could still reach category 2 intensity prior to landfall with
conditions generally favourable for intensification.
Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 28/0700 UTC by Perth TCWC.
(2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 14.9S 118.3E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.0S 117.8E, APPROXIMATELY
430 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS IMPROVED CONSOLIDATION, WITH
CENTRAL CONVECTION BEGINNING TO FORM OVER A WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 280117Z MHS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE
CONFIRMS SHALLOW SPIRAL BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC. RECENT ASCAT
DATA INDICATE WIND SPEEDS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS, CONSISTENT WITH CURRENT
DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T1.0 (25 KNOTS). UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES
AN IMPROVING ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE (20 TO 25 KNOTS) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR BEING OFFSET BY ROBUST OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
NEAR 30 DEGREES CELSIUS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL
MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS DEVELOPMENT INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN
24 TO 36 HOURS, BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL NEAR PORT HEDLAND. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
WTXS21 PGTW 281030
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 16.3S 117.6E TO 19.5S 117.5E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 28 TO 32 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 280920Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 16.9S 117.3E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 10
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 16.0S
117.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.9S 117.3E, APPROXIMATELY 375 NM NORTH-
NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS RAPIDLY IMPROVING SPIRAL BANDING WITH CENTRAL
CONVECTION FORMING OVER A WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER.
A 280856Z SSMIS 91 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS DEEP CONVECTIVE
BANDING ON THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PERIPHERIES. CURRENT DVORAK
ESTIMATES OF T2.0 (30 KNOTS) FROM PGTW AND APRF SUPPORT THE CURRENT
INTENSITY ASSESSMENT OF 28 TO 32 KNOTS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES AN IMPROVING ENVIRONMENT WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE (10 TO 20
KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND ROBUST OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT AT 30 DEGREES CELSIUS.
AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS DEVELOPMENT OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN 24 HOURS. DUE TO THE IMPROVED STRUCTURE AND LOWER VWS THE
POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
291030Z.//
NNNN
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