THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 13.0S 159.0E [1], IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 21.0S 175.7E [2], APPROXIMATELY 210 NM SOUTH- SOUTHWEST OF NADI, FIJI. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER HAS BECOME FULLY EXPOSED AND DECOUPLED FROM THE MAIN CONVECTION BY OVER 200 NM. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE CYCLONE HAS DRIFTED FURTHER SOUTH FROM THE RIDGE AXIS INTO AN AREA OF MODERATE TO STRONG (20-25 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK FURTHER POLEWARD INTO AN AREA OF EVEN GREATER VWS. ADDITIONALLY, ALONG-TRACK SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE DECREASING TO BELOW 27 DEGREES CELSIUS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. IN VIEW OF THE DETERIORATING ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS DOWNGRADED TO LOW. 93P降為LOW, 但是... [1]明明就是95P的位置, 怎麼突然走這麼遠變成[2] 93P的位置啊? |
本帖最後由 mustang 於 2012-3-29 17:23 編輯 Medium!! 螺旋性發展中! |