阿隆

frintezza

既然已撒編, 我就貼一張說好的路徑圖 (12/27 12 UTC 至 1/21 06 UTC), 兩點之間相隔6小時

不懂怎樣+地圖, 但在廣闊海洋上沒差吧
可是用NRL定位畫出來怪怪的, 特別是TS的時候

阿隆

昨天大概這時的對流幾乎已經散架,顯然尚未近馬達加斯加就不支了~終是該到撤編之際了?(自編號到今日的生命期25天)

Typhoon

這個擾動創了一個路徑最怪異同時強度來回呈現的記錄,
:D

阿隆

對流再度爆發底層又重新建立中:funk:...
從低壓到TD-->TC-->TD再降為現低壓已經過3星期,不可否認的是:這隻都一直都還活著!

但現是:我將再起?或只是死貓跳?我也不知了~
因為,過去3週一直也都沒有很好過但也不會掛掉:lol,酷吧!

frintezza

外遊後回來了

Emang還沒撤編喔, 而且不知在哪個時候, 再次被評為LOW

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (REMNANTS OF TC 09S) LOCATED NEAR15.2S 74.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.6S 70.9E, APPROXIMATELY 510 NMSOUTH OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWSA FULLY EXPOSED, POORLY DEFINED, AND WEAK LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER(LLCC) WITH SCATTERED SHALLOW CONVECTION MOSTLY TO THE NORTH OF THELLCC. THIS IS READILY EVIDENT ON A 181337Z SSMIS MICROWAVE PASS.RECENT SCATTEROMETRY DATA SHOWS WEAK (05-10 KNOT) WINDS OVER THENORTHERN PORTION OF THE LLCC AND 20 TO 25 KNOT GRADIENT WINDS FEEDINGINTO THE SOUTHERN HALF. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS MODERATEVERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-20 KNOTS) WITH MINIMAL OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACETEMPERATURES IN THE AREA ARE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE AT 26 TO 27 DEGREESCELSIUS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB.DUE TO THE MARGINAL ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, THE POTENTIAL FORREDEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24HOURS REMAINS LOW.

大致上就說Emang LLCC外露, 對流鬆散並集中在LLCC北面, 風切中等, 輻散微弱

看它還能撐多久

開梅

也實在是很誇張，西太平洋我找到醞釀期最長者，目前也才6天，這個遠遠超越這項紀錄了

阿隆

麻友飯

老J的預測:
  FORECAST DATA

Time		Position		Strength		Wind Probabilities		Wind Model
GMT	Lead	Lat	Long	Peak Wind	Cat	TS	Cat 1 or Above	Wind Field
16 Jan, 6:00	12 hrs	14.9 S	78.4 E	35 kts	TS	To 12 hrs	To 12 hrs	N/A
16 Jan, 18:00	24 hrs	15.2 S	76.8 E	40 kts	TS	To 24 hrs	To 24 hrs	N/A
17 Jan, 6:00	36 hrs	15.6 S	74.6 E	45 kts	TS	To 36 hrs	To 36 hrs	N/A
17 Jan, 18:00	48 hrs	16.0 S	72.7 E	50 kts	TS	To 48 hrs	To 48 hrs	N/A
18 Jan, 18:00	72 hrs	16.4 S	69.3 E	50 kts	TS	To 72 hrs	To 72 hrs	N/A
19 Jan, 18:00	96 hrs	16.8 S	66.6 E	50 kts	TS	To 96 hrs	To 96 hrs	N/A
20 Jan, 18:00	120 hrs	17.4 S	64.0 E	50 kts	TS	To 120 hrs	To 120 hrs	N/

強度一直停在50KNOTS 未能升至CAT1水平 增強停滯
可能沒撐到馬達加斯加就掰掰了.....