老農民版夜神月

  基本資料  
編號　　　　：91 W
擾動編號日期：2019 年 05 月 05 日 08 時
撤編日期　　：2019 年 05 月 06 日 14 時
91W INVEST 190505 0000 3.0N 160.7E WPAC 15 1010

老農民版夜神月

JTWC0600Z一報評級91W為Low,GFS主觀模式預測及部分系集成員看好此系統未來的發展

(2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
, APPROXIMATELY 670 NM EAST-SOUTHWEST OF CHUUK. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A POORLY ORGANIZED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION WITH PERSISTENT, SCATTERED CONVECTION. RECENT ASCAT
IMAGE SHOWS A BROAD CIRCULATION WITH A SWATH OF 15-20 KNOT WINDS IN
THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS 91W BORDERING
AN AREA OF LOW TO MODERATE (15-25 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WITH
EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (30-31 CELSIUS)
IN THE SURROUNDING WATERS SUPPORT FUTURE DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL MODELS
INDICATE A NORTHWARD TRAJECTORY WITH GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION OVER
THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 12 TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE
NEAR 1010 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.