WTXS31 PGTW 220900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (EMERAUDE) FINAL WARNING RELOCATED//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (EMERAUDE) WARNING NR 014 RELOCATED
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
220600Z --- NEAR 11.1S 86.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 01 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 11.1S 86.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 10.9S 85.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
220900Z POSITION NEAR 11.0S 85.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15S (EMERAUDE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 846 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 01
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD, FULLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) WITH ISOLATED BURSTS OF DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED OVER THE
SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE LLCC. A 220328Z METOP-A 89 GHZ IMAGE
REVEALS WEAKLY-DEFINED SHALLOW BANDING WRAPPING BROADLY INTO THE
LLCC. RECENT SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWS 25 TO 30 KNOT GRADIENT WINDS
OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE WITH 20 TO 25 KNOTS ELSEWHERE. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 30 KNOTS BASED ON THE SCATTEROMETER
DATA AS WELL AS DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 2.0 (30
KNOTS). DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK
GENERALLY WESTWARD THROUGH TAU 48 THEN WILL TURN SHARPLY POLEWARD. OVERALL, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE UNTIL TAU 72 WHEN POLEWARD OUTFLOW IS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE
WITH THE APPROACH OF A DEEP SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THEREFORE, THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR THE SYSTEM TO REGENERATE NEAR TAU 72. THIS IS THE
FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL
HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF
REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 220600Z IS 10 FEET.
JUSTIFICATION FOR RELOCATION: RELOCATED PREVIOUS WARNING LOCATION
BASED ON MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY.//
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