霧峰追風者

  二級熱帶氣旋  
編號：06 U ( 02 S )
名稱：Hilda

  基本資料  
擾動編號日期：2017 年 12 月 22 日 21 時
升格熱低日期：2017 年 12 月 26 日 08 時
命名日期　　：2017 年 12 月 27 日 18 時
撤編日期　　：2018 年 01 月 01 日 12 時
登陸地點　　：澳洲 西澳大利亞洲 布魯姆市

  巔峰時期資料  
澳洲氣象局 (BoM)：50 kt
聯合颱風警報中心 (JTWC)：40 kts ( TS )
海平面最低氣壓：985 百帕

  過去路徑圖  

  擾動編號資料  
92S.INVEST.15kts.1010mb.7.4S.122.1E


以上資料來自：BoM、JTWC、颱風論壇整理製作

霧峰追風者

深入內陸了，環流依舊明顯，可以為當地沙漠帶來一點雨量。

霧峰追風者

BoM 強度事後上修到"二級熱帶氣旋"。

zjk369

霧峰追風者

JTWC 18Z升格"02S"，首報風速40kts

WTXS31 PGTW 272100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (HILDA) WARNING NR 001//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/262251ZDEC2017//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (HILDA) WARNING NR 001   
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   271800Z --- NEAR 18.8S 121.6E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 210 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 18.8S 121.6E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   280600Z --- 20.2S 121.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   281800Z --- 21.5S 122.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
272100Z POSITION NEAR 19.2S 121.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 02S (HILDA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 64 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF BROOME, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS FLARING CONVECTION AROUND THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) ASSOCIATED WITH TC 02S. THE STRONGEST
CONVECTION IS LOCATED TO THE NORTH OF THE LLCC. THE INITIAL POSITION
IS BASED ON A 271810Z HIMAWARI SATELLITE IMAGE SHOWING GOOD
CONVECTIVE BANDING. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KNOTS IS HEDGED
BETWEEN A PGTW DVORAK ESTIMATE OF T3.5 (55 KNOTS) AND A 271226Z OSCAT
IMAGE SHOWING 30 KNOT WINDS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS FAVORABLE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10 TO 15 KNOTS), MODERATE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW
AND GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. TC 02S WILL TRACK SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AS
IT MOVES OVER LAND. TC 02S WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE IN INTENSITY AND
DISSIPATE BY TAU 24 DUE TO CONTINUED LAND INTERACTION. THERE IS GOOD
AGREEMENT AMONG DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE, SO THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
271800Z IS 9 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 280300Z, 280900Z AND 281500Z.
THIS CANCELS AND SUPERSEDES REF A (WTXS21 PGTW 262300).//
NNNN

霧峰追風者

BoM 強度略微提升，即將登陸西北澳陸地，看看等等18Z JTWC會不會升格…

IDW23100
40:3:1:24:19S122E999:11:00
SECURITE

HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH
AT 1824UTC 27 DECEMBER 2017

GALE WARNING

Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the
averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.

SITUATION
At 1800 UTC Tropical Cyclone Hilda was centred within 20 nautical miles of
latitude eighteen decimal nine south (18.9S)
longitude one hundred and twenty one decimal seven east (121.7E)
Recent movement : south southwest at 10 knots
Maximum winds   : 45 knots
Central pressure: 985 hPa

AREA AFFECTED
Within 40 nautical miles of the centre

FORECAST
Maximum winds to 45 knots near the centre easing to 30 knots after 0600 UTC 28
December as the system moves over land.

Winds above 34 knots within 40 nautical miles of the centre with rough seas and
moderate swell.

Forecast positions
At 0600 UTC 28 December: Within 35 nautical miles of 19.8 south 121.3 east
[over land]
                        Central pressure 995 hPa.
                        Winds to 30 knots near centre.
At 1800 UTC 28 December: Over land, within 60 nautical miles of 21.3 south
121.4 east [over land]
                        Central pressure 995 hPa.
                        Winds to 30 knots near centre.

REMARKS
All ships in the area please send weather reports every three hours.
Regular weather observing ships use normal channels.
Other ships please use either email to tcwcwa@bom.gov.au or fax to +61892632261
or satellite using SAC1241 through Land Earth Station Burum 312 [or 212 as
appropriate] via Perth.

Next warning will be issued by 0100 UTC 28 December 2017.

WEATHER PERTH

霧峰追風者

BoM 近岸命名"Hilda"，預估明天再次登陸澳洲西北部。

Details of Tropical Cyclone Hilda at 5:00 pm AWST:

Intensity: category 1, sustained winds near the centre of 75 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 100 kilometres per hour.
Location: within 9 kilometres of 17.8 degrees South, 122.2 degrees East , 15 kilometres north northwest of Broome and 105 kilometres north northeast of Bidyadanga .
Movement: south southwest at 12 kilometres per hour .

Tropical Cyclone Hilda has formed on the coast just to the north of Broome. The centre should pass near Broome between 6pm and 7pm WST, before tracking in a south to southwesterly direction towards Bidyadanga overnight. Hilda should then move over land during Thursday and gradually weaken.

霧峰追風者

BoM 編號06U，有機會出海後升格命名。

IDW27600
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0121 UTC 27/12/2017
Name: Tropical Low   
Identifier: 06U
Data At: 0000 UTC
Latitude: 17.0S
Longitude: 122.6E
Location Accuracy: within 20 nm [35 km]
Movement Towards: south southwest [206 deg]
Speed of Movement: 7 knots [12 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 30 knots [55 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 45 knots [85 km/h]
Central Pressure: 988 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant:     
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant:     
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant:     
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant:     
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:     
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:     
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:     
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:     
Radius of 64-knot winds:     
Radius of Maximum Winds:     
Dvorak Intensity Code: N/A
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1002 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 70 nm [130 km]
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time    : Location    : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind   : Central Pressure
[UTC]        : degrees     :      nm  [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+06:  27/0600: 17.7S 122.1E:     035 [065]:  030  [055]:  990
+12:  27/1200: 18.2S 121.7E:     045 [085]:  035  [065]:  988
+18:  27/1800: 18.5S 121.6E:     050 [095]:  040  [075]:  986
+24:  28/0000: 19.0S 121.4E:     060 [110]:  040  [075]:  986
+36:  28/1200: 20.2S 121.7E:     080 [150]:  030  [055]:  990
+48:  29/0000: 21.6S 122.0E:     100 [185]:  030  [055]:  994
+60:  29/1200: 22.8S 122.3E:     120 [220]:  025  [045]:  998
+72:  30/0000: 23.7S 122.5E:     150 [280]:  025  [045]: 1002
+96:  31/0000: 24.8S 123.7E:     190 [350]:  025  [045]: 1006
+120: 01/0000: 26.0S 123.1E:     260 [480]:  025  [045]: 1006
REMARKS:
Low centre located using Broome radar. The system centre went over Lombadina
earlier this morning with a marked lull in winds followed by a change in wind
direction. Minimum pressure was around 986hPa. 135.8mm of rainfall was recorded
from 0900 Tuesday to 0809 Wednesday [AWST].

Model guidance is consistent in indicating a south southwest track, but with the
oblique angle of approach to the coastline a small deviation will make a
signficant difference to the amount of time spent over water. SSTs and shear are
favourable and the limiting factor is likely to be time over water.   

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 27/0730 UTC by Perth TCWC.

霧峰追風者

JTWC 23Z發佈TCFA

WTXS21 PGTW 262300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
155 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 15.5S 123.3E TO 19.8S 119.2E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 28 TO 33 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 261200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 15.7S 123.2E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHWARD AT 06 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 16.5S
122.4E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.7S 123.2E, APPROXIMATELY 645 NM
NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
WITH FORMATIVE BANDING OVER THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. A 261135Z AMSU
89GHZ IMAGE SHOWS CURVED, DEEP BANDING OVER THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY
WRAPPING INTO A LLCC IN THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF THE LLCC. A
261307Z ASCAT PASS SHOWS AN AREA OF 25-30 KNOT WINDS LOCATED IN THE
NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT. THE UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE (10-15 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
AND RADIAL OUTFLOW. DYNAMIC MODELS INDICATE GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION
OVER THE 24-36 HRS AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS TO THE SOUTHWEST. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 998 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
272300Z.  
//
NNNN