霧峰追風者

JTWC 分析出T2.5，12Z率先升格"熱帶氣旋25S"。

25S INVEST
As of 12:00 UTC Apr 23, 2019:

Location: 8.6°S 81.9°E
Maximum Winds: 35 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 996 mb

TXXS22 KNES 231211
TCSSIO

A.  TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (90S)
B.  23/1130Z
C.  8.3S
D.  82.1E
E.  THREE/MET-8
F.  T2.5/2.5/D1.0/24HRS
G.  IR/EIR/VIS
H.  REMARKS...SYSTEM IS CHARACTERIZED BY AN IRREGULAR CDO MEASURING
MORE THAN 1.5 DEGREES RESULTING IN A DT OF 3.0. MET IS 2.0 BASED ON
SLOW DEVELOPMENT OVER 24 HOURS. PT IS 2.5. FT IS BASED ON PT DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY IN THE CLOUD FEATURES.
I.  ADDL POSITIONS
NIL

...TURK

老農民版夜神月

JTWC23/00Z官方分析T2.0,定強亦同時調升至30節

90S INVEST 190423 0000 6.3S 81.4E SHEM 30 1002

TPXS10 PGTW 230008

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 90S (NE OF DIEGO GARCIA)

B. 23/0000Z

C. 6.27S

D. 81.00E

E. FIVE/MET8

F. T2.0/2.0/D1.0/24HRS  STT: S0.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .35 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT OF 2.0. MET AND PT AGREE. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


   VEERKAMP

老農民版夜神月

MFR對熱帶低壓15號(90S)所發出的第一報

WTIO30 FMEE 230125
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 1/15/20182019
1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 15
2.A POSITION 2019/04/23 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 7.0 S / 81.3 E
(SEVEN    DECIMAL ZERO   DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY ONE    DECIMAL THREE   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 7 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.0/2.0/D 1.0/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 998 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 30 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 150
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/04/23 12 UTC: 8.4 S / 82.2 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
24H: 2019/04/24 00 UTC: 9.5 S / 83.1 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2019/04/24 12 UTC: 9.9 S / 83.7 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2019/04/25 00 UTC: 10.7 S / 84.7 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
60H: 2019/04/25 12 UTC: 11.5 S / 85.4 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
72H: 2019/04/26 00 UTC: 12.3 S / 86.2 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2019/04/27 00 UTC: 14.2 S / 88.0 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
120H: 2019/04/28 00 UTC: 16.4 S / 90.2 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
FT=2.0+ CI=2.0+
THE LOW PRESSURE AREA MONITORED SINCE THE LAST 24 TO 36 HOURS EAST OF
THE CHAGOS ARCHIPELAGO HAS STRENGTHENED OVERNIGHT WITH IMPROVING
ORGANISATION IN THE CLOUD PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH VERY COLD CLOUD
TOPS. MW IMAGERY SINCE YESTERDAY EVENING SHOW A CONSOLIDATING LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION, DESPITE SOME MODERATE EASTERLY SHEAR. A PARTIAL
ASCAT-C LAST NIGHT SHOW SOME 30 KT WINDS OVER THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT AND A NEARBY BUOY REPORT FALLING SEA LEVEL PRESSURE.
BASED ON ALL ABOVE, THE FINAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 30 KT.
THE SYSTEM MOVE SOUTH-EASTWARDS OVER THE SOUTH-WESTERN EDGE OF A LOW
TO MID-LEVELS EQUATORIAL RIDGE. OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, THE
EQUATORIAL RIDGE IS EXPECETD TO SHIFT WESTWARDS AND A HIGH TO MID
LEVEL TROUGH IS GRADUALLY EXPECTED TO TAKEN PLACE TO THE SOUTH-WEST
OF THE SYSTEM. THIS PATTERN SHOULD FAVOR A CONTINUING GENERAL
SOUTH-EASTWARDS TRACK OVER THE WHOLE FORECAST PERIOD. SOME MODELS
SUGGEST THAT THE SYSTEM MAY INTERACT WITH A POSSIBLE DEVELOPPING LOW
LOCATED FURTHER EAST. IF IT DOES SO, AN EATWARD SHIFT OF THE TRACK IS
POSSIBLE.
THE EASTERLY CONSTRAINT SHOULD LIMIT SOMEWHAT THE INTENSIFICATION
PROCESS AT LEAST FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS BUT AFTER THAT, THE SYSTEM
MAY BENEFIT FROM IMPROVING ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, WITH A
CLIMATOLOGICAL DEVELOPMENT RATE EXPECTED. LATER IN THE FORECAST
PERIOD, SOME INCREASE IN NORTH-EASTERLY SHEAR MAY STOP THE DEVELOPING
TREND BUT THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME.=

霧峰追風者

00Z直接升"熱帶低壓15號"，有機會在24H內命名。

霧峰追風者

JTWC 23Z發佈TCFA。

WTXS22 PGTW 222300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 90S)//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/221421Z APR 19//
AMPN/REF IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW 221430)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 5.0S 80.7E TO 9.3S 84.5E WITHIN
THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE
OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE
AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT
221800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 5.5S
81.1E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD AT 07 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 4.2S
79.5E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 5.5S 81.1E, APPROXIMATELY 525 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH
STRONG CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE SOUTH, AND TWO FRAGMENTED
FORMATIVE BANDS WRAPPING IN FROM THE SOUTH AND NORTH. THE
ENVIRONMENT IS OVERALL FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT, WITH WARM (27-29C)
SSTS AND STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE SLIGHTLY OFFSET BY MODERATE
TO HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (20-30 KTS) THAT DECREASES TO THE SOUTH.
GLOBAL MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON A SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS, WITH SOME SPREAD DUE TO VARYING DEGREES OF INTERACTION
WITH A SMALLER CIRCULATION TO THE EAST. GLOBAL MODEL TIMING FOR
DEVELOPMENT OF 35KT WINDS RANGES FROM APPROXIMATELY 12 TO 36 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO
30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
232300Z.
4. SEE REF A FOR DETAILS ON A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT
LOCATED NEAR 9.7S 51.3E (WTXS21 PGTW 221430).//
NNNN

老農民版夜神月

目前從定位上看過去一日系統略微東進,定強維持,數值預測此系統未來將有一定程度的發展

90S INVEST 190422 1200 5.1S 80.5E SHEM 25 1003

老農民版夜神月

East of Diego Garcia :
The Ascat partial ascat data of this morning show a low level clockwise circulation (LLCC) centred
near 5S/80E with maximal winds near 25 kt within the equatorward feeding. Deep convection is
strong but very fluctuating. The last micro-wave imagery doesn't show any sign of organisation but
data from buoy nr 5601534 show a decrease MSLP. Minimal pressure is estimated at 1004 hPa.
Environmental conditions are favourable for cyclogenesis. Kelvin wave and equatorial Rossby
wave should increase low level convergence. In upper level, the LLCC should take benefit from a
weak vertical windshear while a subtropical jetstreak ondulation should improve polerward upper
level divergence. Model guidance are in good agreement to forecast a significantly deepening from
Wednesday.
For the next five days, the risk of formation of a moderate tropical storm becomes strong
Wednesday east of Diego Garcia.

老農民版夜神月

21/12Z,JTWC升格TD

SH, 90, 2019042100, , BEST, 0, 38S, 786E, 15, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, ,
SH, 90, 2019042106, , BEST, 0, 40S, 791E, 20, 1006, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, ,
SH, 90, 2019042112, , BEST, 0, 42S, 795E, 25, 1004, TD, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, ,
SH, 90, 2019042118, , BEST, 0, 40S, 799E, 25, 1004, TD, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1007, 275, 80, 0, 0, S, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
SH, 90, 2019042200, , BEST, 0, 39S, 802E, 25, 1002, TD, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1005, 150, 80, 0, 0, S, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,