霧峰追風者

00Z直接升"熱帶低壓15號"，有機會在24H內命名。

老農民版夜神月

MFR對熱帶低壓15號(90S)所發出的第一報

WTIO30 FMEE 230125
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 1/15/20182019
1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 15
2.A POSITION 2019/04/23 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 7.0 S / 81.3 E
(SEVEN    DECIMAL ZERO   DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY ONE    DECIMAL THREE   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 7 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.0/2.0/D 1.0/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 998 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 30 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 150
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/04/23 12 UTC: 8.4 S / 82.2 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
24H: 2019/04/24 00 UTC: 9.5 S / 83.1 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2019/04/24 12 UTC: 9.9 S / 83.7 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2019/04/25 00 UTC: 10.7 S / 84.7 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
60H: 2019/04/25 12 UTC: 11.5 S / 85.4 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
72H: 2019/04/26 00 UTC: 12.3 S / 86.2 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2019/04/27 00 UTC: 14.2 S / 88.0 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
120H: 2019/04/28 00 UTC: 16.4 S / 90.2 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
FT=2.0+ CI=2.0+
THE LOW PRESSURE AREA MONITORED SINCE THE LAST 24 TO 36 HOURS EAST OF
THE CHAGOS ARCHIPELAGO HAS STRENGTHENED OVERNIGHT WITH IMPROVING
ORGANISATION IN THE CLOUD PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH VERY COLD CLOUD
TOPS. MW IMAGERY SINCE YESTERDAY EVENING SHOW A CONSOLIDATING LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION, DESPITE SOME MODERATE EASTERLY SHEAR. A PARTIAL
ASCAT-C LAST NIGHT SHOW SOME 30 KT WINDS OVER THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT AND A NEARBY BUOY REPORT FALLING SEA LEVEL PRESSURE.
BASED ON ALL ABOVE, THE FINAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 30 KT.
THE SYSTEM MOVE SOUTH-EASTWARDS OVER THE SOUTH-WESTERN EDGE OF A LOW
TO MID-LEVELS EQUATORIAL RIDGE. OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, THE
EQUATORIAL RIDGE IS EXPECETD TO SHIFT WESTWARDS AND A HIGH TO MID
LEVEL TROUGH IS GRADUALLY EXPECTED TO TAKEN PLACE TO THE SOUTH-WEST
OF THE SYSTEM. THIS PATTERN SHOULD FAVOR A CONTINUING GENERAL
SOUTH-EASTWARDS TRACK OVER THE WHOLE FORECAST PERIOD. SOME MODELS
SUGGEST THAT THE SYSTEM MAY INTERACT WITH A POSSIBLE DEVELOPPING LOW
LOCATED FURTHER EAST. IF IT DOES SO, AN EATWARD SHIFT OF THE TRACK IS
POSSIBLE.
THE EASTERLY CONSTRAINT SHOULD LIMIT SOMEWHAT THE INTENSIFICATION
PROCESS AT LEAST FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS BUT AFTER THAT, THE SYSTEM
MAY BENEFIT FROM IMPROVING ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, WITH A
CLIMATOLOGICAL DEVELOPMENT RATE EXPECTED. LATER IN THE FORECAST
PERIOD, SOME INCREASE IN NORTH-EASTERLY SHEAR MAY STOP THE DEVELOPING
TREND BUT THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME.=

老農民版夜神月

JTWC23/00Z官方分析T2.0,定強亦同時調升至30節

90S INVEST 190423 0000 6.3S 81.4E SHEM 30 1002

TPXS10 PGTW 230008

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 90S (NE OF DIEGO GARCIA)

B. 23/0000Z

C. 6.27S

D. 81.00E

E. FIVE/MET8

F. T2.0/2.0/D1.0/24HRS  STT: S0.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .35 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT OF 2.0. MET AND PT AGREE. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


   VEERKAMP

霧峰追風者

JTWC 分析出T2.5，12Z率先升格"熱帶氣旋25S"。

25S INVEST
As of 12:00 UTC Apr 23, 2019:

Location: 8.6°S 81.9°E
Maximum Winds: 35 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 996 mb

TXXS22 KNES 231211
TCSSIO

A.  TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (90S)
B.  23/1130Z
C.  8.3S
D.  82.1E
E.  THREE/MET-8
F.  T2.5/2.5/D1.0/24HRS
G.  IR/EIR/VIS
H.  REMARKS...SYSTEM IS CHARACTERIZED BY AN IRREGULAR CDO MEASURING
MORE THAN 1.5 DEGREES RESULTING IN A DT OF 3.0. MET IS 2.0 BASED ON
SLOW DEVELOPMENT OVER 24 HOURS. PT IS 2.5. FT IS BASED ON PT DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY IN THE CLOUD FEATURES.
I.  ADDL POSITIONS
NIL

...TURK

老農民版夜神月

JTWC首報上望70節

REMARKS:
231500Z POSITION NEAR 8.9S 82.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (TWENTYFIVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 566 NM EAST
OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 11 KNOTS (KTS) OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED AND THE LAST FEW FRAMES
OF VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEAL A DEVELOPING CENTRAL DENSE
OVERCAST WITH SPIRAL RAIN BANDS WRAPPING INTO THE SYSTEM. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE USING A 231047Z
SSMIS 37 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE WHICH SUGGESTS THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER IS JUST SOUTH OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 35 KTS IS CONSISTENT WITH PGTW AND FMEE DVORAK CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T2.5 (35 KTS). THE ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE
WITH EXCELLENT RADIAL OUTFLOW, LOW (10-15 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS), AND WARM (29-30 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE. FOR THE
DURATION OF THE FORECAST, TC 25S IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ALONG THE
NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) WITH SMALL TRACK
SHIFTS ATTRIBUTABLE TO CHANGES IN THE STR ORIENTATION. THE
ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE THROUGH TAU 72 AND THE INTENSITY
IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 70 KTS OVER THAT TIME PERIOD. AFTER TAU
72, TC 25S IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS THE OUTFLOW DIMINISHES AND VWS
INCREASES. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE HAS GOOD ACROSS-TRACK AGREEMENT
BUT THE MODELS HAVE SIGNIFICANT ALONG-TRACK SPEED DIFFERENCES. THE
JTWC TRACK FORECAST FOLLOWS PERSISTENCE IN THE SHORT TERM AND THE
MODEL CONSENSUS IN THE LONG TERM WITH LOW CONFIDENCE DUE TO THE HIGH
ALONG-TRACK SPREAD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 231200Z IS 12
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 232100Z, 240300Z, 240900Z AND 241500Z. REFER
TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (KENNETH) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR SIX-
HOURLY UPDATES.
2. THIS CANCELS AND SUPERSEDES REF A (WTXS22 PGTW 230600).//
NNNN

附近及未來行進路線附近的海溫較低,一定程度會成為發展上的問題

霧峰追風者

18Z命名“Lorna”，巔峰上望熱帶氣旋(75KT)。

WTIO31 FMEE 231845
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN INDIEN)
0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 4/15/20182019
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 15 (LORNA)
2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 23/04/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 9.6 S / 82.9 E
(NEUF DEGRES SIX SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT DEUX DEGRES NEUF EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-SUD-EST 10 KT
3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.0/3.0/D 1.0/18 H
4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 995 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 40 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 46 KM
6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 150 SO: NO: 200
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 90 SO: NO: 110
7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1008 HPA / 900 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE
1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 24/04/2019 06 UTC: 10.3 S / 83.1 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE TROPICALE
MODEREE
24H: 24/04/2019 18 UTC: 11.1 S / 83.6 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE TEMPETE
TROPICALE
36H: 25/04/2019 06 UTC: 11.8 S / 84.2 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE TEMPETE
TROPICALE
48H: 25/04/2019 18 UTC: 12.5 S / 84.8 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, CYCLONE TROPICAL
60H: 26/04/2019 06 UTC: 13.1 S / 85.6 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, CYCLONE TROPICAL
72H: 26/04/2019 18 UTC: 13.7 S / 86.7 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, CYCLONE TROPICAL
2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 27/04/2019 18 UTC: 15.4 S / 89.3 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE TEMPETE
TROPICALE
120H: 28/04/2019 18 UTC: 19.2 S / 90.5 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE TEMPETE
TROPICALE
2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=3.0- CI=3.0-
AU COURS DES DERNIERES 6 HEURES, DES BURSTS DE CONVECTION SE SONT PRODUITES PRES DU CENTRE. LA PASSE ASCAT DE 1523Z MONTRE UNE STRUCTURE
ASSEZ ALLONGEE ET TRES DISSYMÉTRIQUE AVEC LES VENTS LES PLUS FORTS
DANS LE QUADRANT NORD-EST. LA PASSE ASCAT PERMET D'ESTIMER LES VENTS
MAXIMAUX A 40 KT. AUSSI, LE SYSTEME A DONC ETE BAPTISÉ LORNA PAR LE
SERVICE METEOROLIQUE MAURICIEN.
LE SYSTEME SE DEPLACE VERS LE SUD-EST SOUS L'INFLUENCE DE LA DORSALE
PROCHE EQUATORIALE DE BASSE A MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE. AU COURS DES
PROCHAINS JOURS, CETTE DORSALE SE DECALE VERS L'OUEST ALORS QU'UN
TALWEG DE HAUTE A MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE S'INSTALLE GRADUELLEMENT AU
SUD-OUEST DU SYSTEME. CETTE CONFIGURATION EST ALORS FAVORABLE A LA
POURSUITE D'UNE TRAJECTOIRE GLOBALE VERS LE SUD-EST AU COURS DES
PROCHAINS JOURS. CETTE ORIENTATION EST EN BONNE ACCORD AVEC LES
MODELES MAIS L'INCERTITUDE PORTE PLUTOT SUR LA VITESSE DE DEPLACEMENT
DU SYSTEME. CERTAINS MODELES SUGGERENT AUSSI QUE LE SYSTEME POURRAIT
INTERAGIR AVEC UN SYSTEME SE DEVELOPPANT PLUS A L'EST. DANS CE CAS, UN
REAJUSTEMENT DE LA TRAJECTOIRE VERS L'EST POURRAIT ETRE POSSIBLE.
SUR CETTE TRAJECTOIRE, LES CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES SONT
FAVORABLES A LA POURSUITE DE L'INTENSIFICATION. LE CISAILLEMENT VERTICAL
EST PREVU RESTER FAIBLE A MODERÉ AVEC UNE EXCELLENTE DIVERGENCE
D'ALTITUDE CÔTÉ POLAIRE. A PARTIR DE VENDREDI, LE CISAILLEMENT DE
SECTEUR NORD-EST EST PREVU SE RENFORCER CONDUISANT A UN
AFFAIBLISSEMENT PROGRESSIF DU SYSTEME. IL EXISTE ENCORE UNE INCERTITUDE
SUR CE POINT EN LIEN AVEC LA VITESSE DE DEPLACEMENT, AMENANT LE SYSTEME
PLUS OU MOINS RAPIDEMENT DANS UN ENVIRONNEMENT CISAILLE.

老農民版夜神月

ASCAT在昨晚15Z~17Z左右分別掃到Lorna中心附近有部分40kt的風場,18Z一報在T值不變的情形下JTWC將定強上調至40節

25S TWENTYFIVE 190423 1800 9.5S 82.7E SHEM 40 998

20190423   2330   -10.3  -83.6   T2.5/2.5       25S  NONAME         
20190423   1730    -9.4   -82.4   T2.5/2.5       25S  NONAME         
20190423   1130    -8.4   -82.0   T2.5/2.5       90S  90S            

老農民版夜神月

MFR12Z一報暫時調降強度,JTWC則持續維持在40節

WTIO30 FMEE 241219
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 7/15/20182019
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 15 (LORNA)
2.A POSITION 2019/04/24 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 25 NM RADIUS OF POINT 10.7 S / 84.6 E
(TEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY FOUR DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 5 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/2.5/S 0.0/6 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 998 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 35 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 37 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 330 SE: 160 SW: 120 NW: 330
34 KT NE: 80 SE: 60 SW: NW: 80
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/04/25 00 UTC: 11.3 S / 85.1 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2019/04/25 12 UTC: 12.0 S / 85.6 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2019/04/26 00 UTC: 12.8 S / 86.0 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2019/04/26 12 UTC: 13.8 S / 87.0 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
60H: 2019/04/27 00 UTC: 15.0 S / 88.5 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
72H: 2019/04/27 12 UTC: 16.3 S / 89.2 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2019/04/28 12 UTC: 18.5 S / 90.0 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
120H: 2019/04/29 12 UTC: 21.6 S / 89.2 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=2.5+

WTXS32 PGTW 241500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (LORNA) WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (LORNA) WARNING NR 005
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
241200Z --- NEAR 10.7S 84.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 120 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 10.7S 84.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 11.3S 85.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 12.0S 85.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 12.7S 86.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 13.5S 87.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 15.6S 89.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 08 KTS