老農民版夜神月

發展不如預期,MFR25/12Z定強45KT.而前兩天的預報此時強度應已達60~70KT,MFR亦因此調低巔峰預測為60KT

WTIO30 FMEE 251224
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 11/15/20182019
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 15 (LORNA)
2.A POSITION 2019/04/25 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 10.7 S / 85.9 E
(TEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY FIVE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 4 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/3.5/D 1.0/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 988 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 45 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 69 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 490 SE: 220 SW: 220 NW: 620
34 KT NE: 190 SE: 0 SW: 150 NW: 220
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/04/26 00 UTC: 11.8 S / 86.9 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2019/04/26 12 UTC: 13.3 S / 87.9 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2019/04/27 00 UTC: 14.9 S / 88.6 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2019/04/27 12 UTC: 16.4 S / 89.1 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
60H: 2019/04/28 00 UTC: 18.0 S / 89.7 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
72H: 2019/04/28 12 UTC: 19.7 S / 90.3 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
STORM
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2019/04/29 12 UTC: 22.7 S / 89.7 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, POST-TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
120H: 2019/04/30 12 UTC: 27.8 S / 90.5 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, REMNANT LOW
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=3.5-
LORNA'S CLOUD PATTERN SHOWN SOME SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT THIS AFTERNOON
WITH A MORE SYMMETRICAL AND EXPANDING CDO THAT IS STILL ASSOCIATED
WITH VERY COLD CLOUD TOPS. MW IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON ALSO DEPICTED
AN IMPROVING LOW LEVEL STRUCTURE. HOWEVER MOST OF THE SUBJECTIVE AND
OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE FOR THE INTENSITY ANALYSIS HAS CHANGED LITTLE AND
THE INTENSITY IS HOLD AT 45 KT.
LORNA IS MOVING SLOWLY AND THE LATEST FIX SUGGEST THAT A
SOUTH-EASTWARDS TRACK WAS FOLLOWED RECENTLY. AS THE TRACK OF LORNA
WAS IRREGULAR OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS, AN EASTWARDS SHIFT IS STILL
POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT. LORNA SHOULD BE STEERED WITHIN THE NEXT FEW
DAYS BY A HIGH TO MID-LEVELS TROUGH LOCATED TO THE SOUTH-WEST OF THE
SYSTEM AND A BUILDING LOW TO MID-LEVELS RIDGE TO ITS EAST. THIS SHOULD
ALLOW A GENERAL SOUTH-EASTWARDS TRACK THAT COULD BEND MORE
SOUTHWARDS AFTER DAY 2. SOME ALONG TRACK DIFFERENCES ARE STILL NOTED
AMONGST THE GUIDANCE REFLECTING SOME UNCERTAINTY ON THE FORWARD
SPEED OF LORNA.
TODAY LORNA BENEFIT FROM THE EXCELLENT MONSOON FEEDING AND SOME
GOOD POLEWARDS UPPER DIVERGENCE. THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT
LEAST LOW TO MODERATE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AND BE A NEGATIVE
FACTOR. THE INTENSIFICATION RATE FOLLOWS THE ICNW GUIDANCE THAT LIES IN
BETWEEN THE DYNAMICAL-STAT MODELS ON THE LOW SIDE AND THE MORE
AGRESSIVE REGIONAL MODELS. AFTER 24/30 HOURS, A GRADUAL WEAKENING
TREND WITH INCREASING SHEAR, MID-LEVEL DRY AIR AND A DECREASING
OCEANIC POTENTIAL SOUTH OF 18S, IS ANTICIPATED.

JTWC此時定強則為50KT,預測的巔峰強度較MFR高些,仍上望75KT

1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (LORNA) WARNING NR 009
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
251200Z --- NEAR 10.8S 85.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 110 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 10.8S 85.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 11.6S 86.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 12.8S 87.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 14.2S 88.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 15.8S 88.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 19.1S 90.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
300 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 22.7S 90.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
350 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 26.2S 91.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
251500Z POSITION NEAR 11.0S 86.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 25S (LORNA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 824 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 05
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 251200Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 252100Z, 260300Z, 260900Z AND 261500Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
2519042118 40S 790E 25
2519042200 43S 794E 25
2519042206 47S 799E 25
2519042212 51S 805E 25
2519042218 55S 811E 25
2519042300 63S 814E 30
2519042306 75S 817E 30
2519042312 86S 820E 35
2519042318 95S 828E 40
2519042400 101S 836E 40
2519042406 102S 839E 40
2519042412 103S 843E 40
2519042418 104S 846E 40
2519042500 105S 848E 45
2519042506 106S 854E 45
2519042512 108S 859E 50

T值緩慢上升中

20190425   1130   -10.4   -85.2     T3.0/3.0       25S  LORNA           
20190425   0530   -10.2   -85.3     T3.0/3.0       25S  LORNA           
20190424   2330   -11.5   -84.9     T3.0/3.0       25S  LORNA           
20190424   1730   -10.3   -84.3     T2.5/3.0       25S  LORNA      

TPXS10 PGTW 251504

A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (LORNA)

B. 25/1430Z

C. 10.52S

D. 86.11E

E. FIVE/MET8

F. T3.5/3.5/D0.5/24HRS  STT: D0.5/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .80 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT OF 3.5. MET/PT AGREE. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
   25/1020Z  10.70S  85.63E  SSMS


   MARTIN

jrchang5

MFR 28/06Z升格為熱帶氣旋，近中心最大風速升至70kts，中心氣壓974hpa。

ZCZC 489
WTIO30 FMEE 280639 RRA
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 22/15/20182019
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 15 (LORNA)
2.A POSITION 2019/04/28 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.8 S / 89.5 E
(SIXTEEN    DECIMAL EIGHT   DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY NINE    DECIMAL FIVE   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH 10 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.5/4.5/D 0.5/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 974 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 70 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 37 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 370 SE: 370 SW: 480 NW: 370
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 170 SW: 170 NW: 90
48 KT NE: 40 SE: 90 SW: 90 NW: 40
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 1700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/04/28 18 UTC: 18.8 S / 89.4 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
24H: 2019/04/29 06 UTC: 20.6 S / 89.0 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
36H: 2019/04/29 18 UTC: 22.3 S / 88.7 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
48H: 2019/04/30 06 UTC: 24.3 S / 89.0 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
60H: 2019/04/30 18 UTC: 26.7 S / 90.2 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=4.5+
NNNN

另JTWC亦認同一時間近中心最大風速升至75kts，中心氣壓975hpa，強度已近巔峰。

25S LORNA
As of 06:00 UTC Apr 28, 2019:

Location: 16.8°S 89.7°E
Maximum Winds: 75 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 975 mb

jrchang5

MFR 28/18Z再將近中心最大風速提升至80kts，中心氣壓降至964hpa；JTWC定強則維持與前二報相同，強度已達巔峰。
MFR：

ZCZC 326

WTIO30 FMEE 281804
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 24/15/20182019
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 15 (LORNA)
2.A POSITION 2019/04/28 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.9 S / 90.0 E
(EIGHTEEN    DECIMAL NINE   DEGREES SOUTH AND
NINETY    DECIMAL ZERO   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH 10 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.0/5.0/D 1.0/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 964 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 80 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 37 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 370 SE: 740 SW: 650 NW: 370
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 370 SW: 370 NW: 150
48 KT NE: 90 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 90
64 KT NE: 70 SE: 70 SW: 70 NW: 70
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 1900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/04/29 06 UTC: 20.9 S / 89.7 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
24H: 2019/04/29 18 UTC: 23.1 S / 89.5 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
36H: 2019/04/30 06 UTC: 25.5 S / 89.8 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
48H: 2019/04/30 18 UTC: 29.0 S / 91.1 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
60H: 2019/05/01 06 UTC: 33.6 S / 95.1 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=5.0
OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, EYE HAS BECOME PROGRESSIVELY BETTER DEFINED.
IN THE SAME TIME, TOP CLOUD TEMPERATURES HAS REMAINED VERY COLD. AS A
CONSEQUENCE, RAW T NUMBERS HAVE RAISED AT 6.0 BETWEEN 1500Z AND
1700Z. PARTIAL 1121Z ASCAT SWATH ANNOUNCED THIS IMPROVEMENT SHOWING A
RING OF CONVECTION VERY INTENSE. BUT GMI IMAGERIES SHOWED ALSO A TILT
BETWEEN THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION AND THE MID LEVEL CIRCULATION DUE
TO THE INCREASING WESTERN VERTICAL WINDSHEAR. BY THE WAY, 89 GHZ
1517Z AMSU MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS AN ERODED EYEWALL WITHIN THE
NORTHERN QUADRANT ANNOUNCING A WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM.
DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS, LORNA SHOULD KEEP ON ITS SOUTHWARD TRACK,
NEAR 90AOEAST, STEERING BY THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE MID LEVEL RIDGE.
FROM TOMORROW, A MID LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM THAT
LIMITED A FASTER EVACUATION TO THE SOUTH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EASTWARD
WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COMING FROM THE
SOUTH-WEST. SO LORNA SHOULD ACCELERATE TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST AHEAD
THE TROUGH.
THE TIME WINDOW FOR CONDUCIVE CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED TO END SHORTLY,
WITH A FORECAST INCREASE OF THE NORTH-WESTERLY SHEAR, INDUCING DRY
AIR INTRUSIONS IN MID TROPOSPHERE.THE WEAKENING OCEANIC HEAT
POTENTIAL SOUTH OF 18S SHOULD ACCELERATE THAT WEAKENING. TOMORROW,
LORNA SHOULD START TO LOOSE ITS PURELY TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AS
THE SYSTEM INTERACTS WITH THE SUBTROPICAL JET, BEFORE FILLING UP MORE
CLEARLY FROM TUESDAY.=
NNNN

JTWC：

WTXS32 PGTW 282100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (LORNA) WARNING NR 022//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (LORNA) WARNING NR 022   
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   281800Z --- NEAR 19.4S 90.5E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 160 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 19.4S 90.5E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   290600Z --- 21.3S 90.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            005 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 250 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            300 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   291800Z --- 23.3S 90.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            270 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   300600Z --- 25.5S 90.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 16 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   301800Z --- 28.5S 91.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
282100Z POSITION NEAR 19.9S 90.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 25S (LORNA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 565 NM
SOUTHWEST OF COCOS ISLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM CONTINUED TO ELONGATE ALONG THE
SOUTHERN FLANK, AN INDICATION OF STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. CENTRAL
CLOUD TOPS ALSO CONTINUE TO WARM. HOWEVER, POLEWARD OUTFLOW REMAINS
STRONG AND RAIN BANDS REMAIN TIGHTLY WRAPPED INTO THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION (LLC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS EXTRAPOLATED FROM AN EYE
FEATURE IN THE EIR LOOP THAT HAS SINCE BECOME OBSCURED. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE DVORAK ESTIMATE OF T4.5/75KTS FROM PGTW.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA OF HIGH (25
KNOTS PLUS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). HOWEVER, STRONG POLEWARD
OUTFLOW CONTINUES TO PROVIDE VENTILATION TO THE ASSOCIATED
CONVECTION. ALONG TRACK SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE BECOMING LESS
CONDUCIVE AT 26C. TC 25S WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST.
THE STR IS EXPECTED TO BUILD SLIGHTLY AND STEER THE CYCLONE ON A MORE
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK OVER THE NEXT DAY. AFTERWARD, A MIDLATITUDE
TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL WEAKEN THE STR AND ALLOW A
MORE SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK. BY TAU 48, TC LORNA WILL BEGIN
EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION AND BY TAU 48, WILL TRANSFORM INTO A
STORM-FORCE COLD-CORE LOW. INCREASING VWS AND COOLING SSTS WILL ALSO
TRIGGER A GRADUAL WEAKENING PHASE, ERODING THE CYCLONE TO 35 KNOTS BY
TAU 48, POSSIBLY DISSIPATION. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN TIGHT AGREEMENT,
LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 281800Z IS 27 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
290300Z, 290900Z, 291500Z AND 292100Z.//
NNNN