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25S.Lorna 加速南下 逐漸轉化

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2019-4-21 03:27 | 顯示全部樓層
基本資料  
編號              90 S
動編號日期2019 04 21 03

撤編日期  :20190430 21
90S INVEST 190420 1800 5.0S 79.0E SHEM 15 0
20190420.1800.msg1.x.ir1km_bw.90SINVEST.15kts-50S-790E.100pc.jpg




MAX MFR 80 JTWC 75

評分

參與人數 1水氣能量 +15 2019擾動搶樓 +1 收起 理由
s6815711 + 15 + 1

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簽到天數: 593 天

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霧峰追風者|2019-4-21 07:54 | 顯示全部樓層
The basin is in a near-equatorial trough (NET) pattern axed near 5S, with westerly winds at the
equator. Near 65E, the NET is broken into two branches, probably because of the passage of a dry
phase of a mixed Rossby-Gravity wave. A moderate convective activity is concentrated within these
two branches of NET : to the North-East of Madagasar and East of Diego Garcia. The development
of two suspect areas within both NET branches is suggested by the available guidance.

North of Madagascar :
From tomorrow, the upper divergence becomes excellent over the western NET branch. Monday, a
weak clockwise circulation could appear and gradually develop from Tuesday. Both the Euro and
American deterministic models are suggesting the formation of a significant tropical low from
Wednesday, North of the Mozambique Channel. This cyclogenesis risk is also shown within the
ensemble members of the last probabilistic runs. However, the lack of equatorward low-level
convergence could slow down the development of the system and keep it at a moderate intensity at
first.
For the next five days, the risk of formation of a moderate tropical storm becomes low
Thursday north of the Comoros archipelago.

East of Diego Garcia :
Benefiting from conducive environmental conditions aloft and from a good low-level convergence,
a clockwise circulation should emerge within the Eastern NET branch by the end of the week-end.
From Tuesday, the strengthening upper divergence should allow the development of the system. The
available guidance is in good agreement to forecast a moderate cyclogenesis risk for the second half
of next week.
For the next five days, the risk of formation of a moderate tropical storm becomes low
Wednesday then moderate from Thursday east of Diego Garcia.
The strengthening of the cyclonic activity expected next week over the basin is probably linked to
the combined passages of a Kelvin and an Equatorial Rossby waves.
79_105061_3a3107528d02238.png

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不要只丟報文或圖片上來(會被當洗版文懲處),可以打上自己的看法  發表於 2019-4-25 16:26
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霧峰追風者|2019-4-21 22:25 | 顯示全部樓層
JTWC 14Z評級LOW
   (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 4.2S
79.5E, APPROXIMATELY 460 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA.  
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 211208Z SSMIS 91GHZ
COLOR COMPOSITE MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOW FLARING AND DISORGANIZED
DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD, SLOWLY-EVOLVING
DISTURBANCE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WITH
LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (5-10 KNOTS) AND STRONG DIFFLUENCE. SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORABLE AT 29-30C. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE
A SOUTHEASTWARD TO SOUTHWARD TRACK OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH THE
SYSTEM REACHING TROPICAL STORM STATUS IN 60-84 HOURS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
abpwsair.jpg

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霧峰追風者|2019-4-22 06:22 | 顯示全部樓層
本帖最後由 霧峰追風者 於 2019-4-22 06:32 編輯

JTWC 17Z評級提升至Medium
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 4.2S 79.5E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 4.0S 80.2E, APPROXIMATELY 509
NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. A 211538Z ASCAT PASS REVEALS AN
AREA OF 25-30 KNOTS WINDS TO THE NORTHEAST. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 211606Z MHS 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE
DEPICT A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH CONVECTION
AROUND THE CENTER.  UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (5-10 KNOTS) AND A POINT SOURCE ALOFT IS
ENHANCING OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-29 CELSIUS) WILL
HELP FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE SOUTHEASTWARD
INITIAL MOTION OVER THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS WITH GRADUAL
INTENSIFICATION TO TROPICAL CYCLONE STRENGTH, WITH VARYING TIME
FRAMES AND INTENSITY. IT IS POSSIBLE 90S WILL INTERACT WITH AND
ABSORB A CIRCULATION TO THE SOUTHEAST BEFORE CONSOLIDATING. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
abpwsair.jpg 20190421.2150.himawari-8.ir.90S.INVEST.25kts.1004mb.4S.80.2E.100pc.jpg 90S_gefs_latest.png
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老農民版夜神月|2019-4-22 10:01 | 顯示全部樓層
21/12Z,JTWC升格TD
SH, 90, 2019042100, , BEST, 0, 38S, 786E, 15, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, ,
SH, 90, 2019042106, , BEST, 0, 40S, 791E, 20, 1006, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, ,
SH, 90, 2019042112, , BEST, 0, 42S, 795E, 25, 1004, TD, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, ,
SH, 90, 2019042118, , BEST, 0, 40S, 799E, 25, 1004, TD, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1007, 275, 80, 0, 0, S, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
SH, 90, 2019042200, , BEST, 0, 39S, 802E, 25, 1002, TD, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1005, 150, 80, 0, 0, S, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
20190422.0120.himawari-8.ir.90S.INVEST.25kts.1002mb.3.9S.80.2E.100pc.jpg 20190422.0120.himawari-8.vis.90S.INVEST.25kts.1002mb.3.9S.80.2E.100pc.jpg
20190421.2005.Aqua.wv.modwv.INVEST.1KM.jpg

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老農民版夜神月|2019-4-23 00:23 | 顯示全部樓層
East of Diego Garcia :
The Ascat partial ascat data of this morning show a low level clockwise circulation (LLCC) centred
near 5S/80E with maximal winds near 25 kt within the equatorward feeding. Deep convection is
strong but very fluctuating. The last micro-wave imagery doesn't show any sign of organisation but
data from buoy nr 5601534 show a decrease MSLP. Minimal pressure is estimated at 1004 hPa.
Environmental conditions are favourable for cyclogenesis. Kelvin wave and equatorial Rossby
wave should increase low level convergence. In upper level, the LLCC should take benefit from a
weak vertical windshear while a subtropical jetstreak ondulation should improve polerward upper
level divergence. Model guidance are in good agreement to forecast a significantly deepening from
Wednesday.
For the next five days, the risk of formation of a moderate tropical storm becomes strong
Wednesday east of Diego Garcia.
79_105061_9c29efebd1dde5c.png

點評

以為就算不看內文圖也標示的很明確了,但忘記論壇裡進來看帖的人有些是新人,有些甚至以前沒接觸過類似的東西,也的確忽略了這個帖子內容質量較低  發表於 2019-4-25 20:59
以前的回帖也一定都有附上說明,有時還會分段講述自己對該系統的見解,這次確實有些大意  發表於 2019-4-25 20:51
好的,下次若有疑問或可能觸犯到規則的地方會先詢問管理人員,另外發文的質量方面我都有在控制,例如一天會注意,不發太多帖怕搶走別人的討論空間  發表於 2019-4-25 20:46
畢竟論壇很多人在看,會讓人家以為怎麼都是在貼報文的想法,以上說明  發表於 2019-4-25 16:54
要貼報文不是不行,至少也要說明貼這則報文是要告訴大家什麼資訊或亮點一來可以讓新手了解,二來也可以增加討論區文章的品質,  發表於 2019-4-25 16:53
假設今天西太有一個颱風,就會有人每個機構的報文+雲圖JMA、KMA、CMA、CWB...等通通貼上來那不就亂了,  發表於 2019-4-25 16:53
如果不知道怎樣才是標準沒違規的帖,可以翻翻以前參照管理員所發的帖,例:t02436  發表於 2019-4-25 16:37
至少也要說明,報文內容,或是你的想法,畢竟這是熱帶氣旋討論區,不是機構報文區,如果有說明也可以讓新手了解,讓大家互相交流  發表於 2019-4-25 16:34
任何規則設置都有他意義存在,早期就是有人狂貼報文,要不然就是貼一張雲圖上來,來洗版  發表於 2019-4-25 16:30
如果有不懂規則的地方,任何管理員都可以詢問,不要看到2樓那樣貼,也跟著有樣學樣  發表於 2019-4-25 16:28
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老農民版夜神月|2019-4-23 00:38 | 顯示全部樓層
本帖最後由 老農民版夜神月 於 2019-4-23 15:19 編輯

目前從定位上看過去一日系統略微東進,定強維持,數值預測此系統未來將有一定程度的發展
90S INVEST 190422 1200 5.1S 80.5E SHEM 25 1003

79_104874_63e4c9d72669a26.png 79_104874_1bf6d2f2849959b.gif
vis0-422lalo.gif 90S_tracks_latest.png
90S_gefs_latest.png

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霧峰追風者|2019-4-23 07:58 | 顯示全部樓層
本帖最後由 霧峰追風者 於 2019-4-23 08:05 編輯

JTWC 23Z發佈TCFA。
WTXS22 PGTW 222300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 90S)//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/221421Z APR 19//
AMPN/REF IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW 221430)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 5.0S 80.7E TO 9.3S 84.5E WITHIN
THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE
OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE
AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT
221800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 5.5S
81.1E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD AT 07 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 4.2S
79.5E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 5.5S 81.1E, APPROXIMATELY 525 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH
STRONG CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE SOUTH, AND TWO FRAGMENTED
FORMATIVE BANDS WRAPPING IN FROM THE SOUTH AND NORTH. THE
ENVIRONMENT IS OVERALL FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT, WITH WARM (27-29C)
SSTS AND STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE SLIGHTLY OFFSET BY MODERATE
TO HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (20-30 KTS) THAT DECREASES TO THE SOUTH.
GLOBAL MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON A SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS, WITH SOME SPREAD DUE TO VARYING DEGREES OF INTERACTION
WITH A SMALLER CIRCULATION TO THE EAST. GLOBAL MODEL TIMING FOR
DEVELOPMENT OF 35KT WINDS RANGES FROM APPROXIMATELY 12 TO 36 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO
30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
232300Z.
4. SEE REF A FOR DETAILS ON A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT
LOCATED NEAR 9.7S 51.3E (WTXS21 PGTW 221430).//
NNNN
sh9019.gif 90S_222300sair.jpg 20190422.2330.himawari-8.ircolor.90S.INVEST.25kts.1003mb.5.5S.81.1E.100pc.jpg
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