霧峰追風者

JTWC 00Z升格24S。

24S TWENTYFOUR
As of 00:00 UTC Apr 23, 2019:

Location: 10.0°S 50.7°E
Maximum Winds: 30 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1002 mb

霧峰追風者

JTWC 分析T2.0

TPXS11 PGTW 221829
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 91S (NE OF MADAGASCAR)
B. 22/1800Z
C. 9.75S
D. 50.96E
E. FIVE/MET8
F. T2.0/2.0  STT: D0.5/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .35 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT OF 2.0. MET AND PT AGREE. DBO DT. BROKE
CONSTRAINT OF 0.5 T NUMBER CHANGE OVER 6 HOURS.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
   VEERKAMP

老農民版夜神月

JTWC在發出TCFA的同時將定強上調30節
路徑的部分目前GFS主觀預測及系集預測尚在是否登陸及後期路徑上有些分歧

91S INVEST 190422 1200 9.7S 51.3E SHEM 30 1002

老農民版夜神月

Tropical Disturbance in North-East of Madagascar :
Geostationary satellite animation satellite imagery shows a LLCC centred near 9.1S/51.5E at 0600
Z. The circulation is partially exposed with deep convection within the southwestern area. Deep
convection remains fluctuating but with sign of curvature showing organization gain. Minimal
pressure is estimated at 1006 hPa. Maximal winds are estimated at 15 kt and locally 20/25 kt within
20/250kt over the southern quadrant.
Environmental conditions are marginally favourable for significantly deepening. Low level
convergence is good poleward but weak equatorward. In upper level, easterlies due to the Kelvin
wave should maintain a moderate eastern vertical windshearThe vertical windshear is forescasted to
weaken from to the second part of the week. The LLCC is forescasted to move westward over the
northern edge of a a low/mid level ridge that should strenghen from Tuesday.
For the next five days, the risk of formation of a moderate tropical storm becomes strong
Wednesday north of the Comoros archipelago.

霧峰追風者

JTWC 12Z發布TCFA。

sh9119.kmz        22-Apr-2019 13:26        306K

TPXS11 PGTW 221214
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 91S (NE OF MADAGASCAR)
B. 22/1145Z
C. 9.42S
D. 51.62E
E. FIVE/HMWRI8
F. T1.0/1.0  STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .25 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT OF 1.0. MET/PT AGREE. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE

   MARTIN

TXXS23 KNES 221236
TCSSIO
A.  TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (91S)
B.  22/1130Z
C.  9.4S
D.  51.3E
E.  FIVE/MET-8
F.  T1.0/1.0/D1.0/24HRS
G.  IR/EIR/VIS
H.  REMARKS...DT OF 1.0 IS BASED ON GT 0.2 CURVED BANDING. MET AND PT
ARE 1.0. FT IS BASED ON DT.
I.  ADDL POSITIONS
    NIL

...RAMIREZ

霧峰追風者

WTIO30 FMEE 221257
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 1/14/20182019
1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 14
2.A POSITION 2019/04/22 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 9.4 S / 50.5 E
(NINE    DECIMAL FOUR   DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY    DECIMAL FIVE   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST 6 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 1.5/1.5/D 0.5/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1006 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 20 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
NIL
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/04/23 00 UTC: 9.5 S / 49.2 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE
24H: 2019/04/23 12 UTC: 9.8 S / 48.1 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE
36H: 2019/04/24 00 UTC: 10.2 S / 46.7 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE
48H: 2019/04/24 12 UTC: 10.5 S / 45.0 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
60H: 2019/04/25 00 UTC: 10.9 S / 42.7 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
72H: 2019/04/25 12 UTC: 11.2 S / 41.0 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2019/04/26 12 UTC: 11.8 S / 40.1 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
120H: 2019/04/27 12 UTC: 13.0 S / 40.7 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
THE CIRCULATION IS PARTIALLY EXPOSED WITH DEEP CONVECTION WITHIN THE
SOUTHWESTERN AREA. DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS FLUCTUATING BUT WITH SIGN
OF CURVATURE SHOWING ORGANIZATION GAIN. MINIMAL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
AT 1006 HPA. MAXIMAL WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 KT AND LOCALLY 20/25
KT WITHIN 20/250KT OVER THE SOUTHERN QUADRANT.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE MARGINALLY FAVOURABLE FOR SIGNIFICANTLY
DEEPENING. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS GOOD POLEWARD BUT WEAK
EQUATORWARD. IN UPPER LEVEL, EASTERLIES DUE TO THE KELVIN WAVE SHOULD
MAINTAIN A MODERATE EASTERN VERTICAL WINDSHEARTHE VERTICAL WINDSHEAR
IS FORESCASTED TO WEAKEN FROM TO THE SECOND PART OF THE WEEK. THE
LLCC IS FORESCASTED TO MOVE WESTWARD OVER THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A A
LOW/MID LEVEL RIDGE THAT SHOULD STRENGHEN FROM TUESDAY.
NEXT ADVISORY TOMORROW AT 0600Z.=

老農民版夜神月

22/00Z,JTWC升格TD

SH, 91, 2019042112, , BEST, 0, 91S, 540E, 20, 1004, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, ,
SH, 91, 2019042118, , BEST, 0, 97S, 530E, 20, 1005, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1008, 170, 40, 0, 0, S, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
SH, 91, 2019042200, , BEST, 0, 94S, 522E, 25, 1004, TD, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1007, 170, 40, 0, 0, S, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,

霧峰追風者

JTWC 17Z評級提升至Medium

(2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 8.9S 54.4E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.7S 53.0E, APPROXIMATELY 711
NM NORTH OF LA REUNION. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND A PARTIAL 211551Z GMI 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOW FRAGMENTED,
FORMATIVE BANDING ASSOCIATED WITH THE BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION.
UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS DEPICTS LOW TO MODERATE (10-25 KNOTS) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (5-10 KNOTS) WITH POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO THE UPPER LEVEL
WESTERLIES TO THE SOUTH. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-29 CELSIUS) IN
THE SURROUNDING WATERS REMAIN SUPPORTIVE FOR FUTURE DEVELOPMENT.  
GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE A WESTWARD TO SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK WITH
GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION IN 48-72 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO
MEDIUM.