簽到天數: 868 天 [LV.10]以壇為家III
|
jrchang5|2019-4-25 11:30
|
顯示全部樓層
MFR 25/00Z升格為強烈熱帶氣旋，近中心最大風速達105kts，中心氣壓950hpa。
ZCZC 211
WTIO30 FMEE 250057 RRA
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 10/14/20182019
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 14 (KENNETH)
2.A POSITION 2019/04/25 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 11.4 S / 42.7 E
(ELEVEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY TWO DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST 8 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 6.0/6.0/D 1.5/12 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 950 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 105 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 9 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 170 SW: 190 NW: 170
34 KT NE: 90 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 60
64 KT NE: 30 SE: 30 SW: 30 NW: 30
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/04/25 12 UTC: 11.7 S / 41.3 E, VENT MAX= 115 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H: 2019/04/26 00 UTC: 12.0 S / 40.3 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
36H: 2019/04/26 12 UTC: 12.4 S / 40.0 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
48H: 2019/04/27 00 UTC: 12.9 S / 40.2 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=6.0+
NNNN 
JTWC亦判定同一時間近中心最大風速升至115kts，中心氣壓937hpa，已達辛普森颶風等級的C4。
24S KENNETH
As of 00:00 UTC Apr 25, 2019:
Location: 11.3°S 42.7°E
Maximum Winds: 115 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 937 mb WTXS31 PGTW 250300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (KENNETH) WARNING NR 009//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (KENNETH) WARNING NR 009
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
250000Z --- NEAR 11.3S 42.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.3S 42.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 11.6S 41.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 11.8S 40.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 12.2S 39.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 12.7S 39.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
250300Z POSITION NEAR 11.4S 42.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (KENNETH), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 44 NM
NORTHWEST OF COMOROS ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 06
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A PERSISTENT PINHOLE EYE AND STRONG
CONVECTION SURROUNDING THE EYEWALL. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED
WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE ON THE EYE IN THE EIR IMAGERY. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 115 KTS IS BASED ON THE 242345Z AUTOMATED DVORAK
TECHNIQUE ESTIMATE OF T6.0 (115 KTS), IN AGREEMENT WITH THE FMEE
DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T6.0, BUT BELOW THE PGTW AND
KNES ESTIMATES OF T6.5 (127 KTS). A 242231Z SATCON ESTIMATE IS 120
KTS. WIND RADII HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED TO REFLECT THE COMPACT NATURE OF
THE SYSTEM. THE 250000Z OBSERVATION FROM HAHAYA INTERNATIONAL
AIRPORT ON COMOROS ISLAND, 30 NM TO THE SOUTH, REPORTED A PEAK
SUSTAINED WIND OF 41 KTS AND LOWEST PRESSURE OF 998MB AT 242000Z.
THE 250000Z OBSERVATION HAS WEAKENED TO 26 KTS SUSTAINED WIND AND
1002MB. LOW TO MODERATE (15-20 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, WARM (29-30
CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE, AND WELL-DEFINED WESTWARD AND
POLEWARD OUTFLOW ARE VERY SUPPORTIVE OF FURTHER INTENSIFICATION IN
THE NEAR TERM. FOR THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST, TC 24S WILL TRACK
ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. TC
24S IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN SLOWLY WEAKENING AS IT BEGINS TO FEEL
FRICTIONAL EFFECTS FROM LAND AND DIVERGENCE ALOFT WEAKENS. THE
CURRENT FORECAST HAS TC 24S DISSIPATING OVER LAND AFTER TAU 48.
HOWEVER, THE FLAT TERRAIN OF NORTHERN MOZAMBIQUE AND CONTINUED LOW
VWS MAY ALLOW THE CIRCULATION TO REMAIN ORGANIZED OVER LAND. A
MIDLATITUDE TROUGH WILL PASS BY TO THE SOUTH AND CAUSE THE CURRENT
DOMINANT STEERING STR TO RE-ORIENT AND ALLOW ANOTHER STR TO BUILD IN
FROM THE SOUTHWEST, BRINGING LOW-LEVEL SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW THAT MAY PUSH THE REMNANTS OF TC 24S BACK OVER WATER AROUND TAU
96-120. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT IN THE
NEAR TERM, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.
GUIDANCE AFTER THE FORECAST PERIOD DIVERGES SIGNIFICANTLY, WITH SOME
MODELS LOOPING THEN RECURVING TC 24S TO THE NORTHEAST AND RE-
EMERGING OVER WATER, SOME MODELS MOVING TC 24S NORTHWARD BUT
REMAINING OVER LAND, AND UKMET AND GALWEM TURNING TC 24S TO THE
SOUTH BACK OVER WATER. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 250000Z IS
25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 250900Z, 251500Z, 252100Z AND 260300Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (LORNA) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN 
|
評分
-
查看全部評分
|
