霧峰追風者

  強烈熱帶氣旋  
編號：14-20182019 ( 24 S )
名稱：Kenneth

  基本資料  
擾動編號日期：2019 年 04 月 21 日 05 時
JTWC升格日期:2019 年 04 月 23 日 08 時
命名日期　　：2019 年 04 月 23 日 20 時
撤編日期　　：2019 年 04 月 28 日 00 時
登陸地點　　：莫三比克

  巔峰時期資料  
近中心最大風速：
法國留尼旺氣象局 ( MFR )：115 kt
聯合颱風警報中心 (JTWC)：125 kts ( Cat.4 )
海平面最低氣壓：934 百帕

  過去路徑圖  
無

  擾動編號資料  
91S.INVEST.15kts-1008mp-9.0S-58.0E


以上資料來自：MFR、JTWC、颱風論壇整理製作

霧峰追風者

The basin is in a near-equatorial trough (NET) pattern axed near 5S, with westerly winds at the
equator. Near 65E, the NET is broken into two branches, probably because of the passage of a dry
phase of a mixed Rossby-Gravity wave. A moderate convective activity is concentrated within these
two branches of NET : to the North-East of Madagasar and East of Diego Garcia. The development
of two suspect areas within both NET branches is suggested by the available guidance.

North of Madagascar :
From tomorrow, the upper divergence becomes excellent over the western NET branch. Monday, a
weak clockwise circulation could appear and gradually develop from Tuesday. Both the Euro and
American deterministic models are suggesting the formation of a significant tropical low from
Wednesday, North of the Mozambique Channel. This cyclogenesis risk is also shown within the
ensemble members of the last probabilistic runs. However, the lack of equatorward low-level
convergence could slow down the development of the system and keep it at a moderate intensity at
first.
For the next five days, the risk of formation of a moderate tropical storm becomes low
Thursday north of the Comoros archipelago.

East of Diego Garcia :
Benefiting from conducive environmental conditions aloft and from a good low-level convergence,
a clockwise circulation should emerge within the Eastern NET branch by the end of the week-end.
From Tuesday, the strengthening upper divergence should allow the development of the system. The
available guidance is in good agreement to forecast a moderate cyclogenesis risk for the second half
of next week.
For the next five days, the risk of formation of a moderate tropical storm becomes low
Wednesday then moderate from Thursday east of Diego Garcia.
The strengthening of the cyclonic activity expected next week over the basin is probably linked to
the combined passages of a Kelvin and an Equatorial Rossby waves.

霧峰追風者

JTWC 14Z評級LOW

    (2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 8.9S
54.4E, APPROXIMATELY 740 NM NORTH OF LA REUNION. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A PARTIAL 211254Z SSMIS 91GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOW FRAGMENTED CONVECTIVE BANDS WRAPPING INTO AN
ELONGATED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION. THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT
IS FAVORABLE WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (5-10 KNOTS) AND STRONG
POLEWARD OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORABLE AT 28-29C.
GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE A WESTWARD TRACK AND SHOW THE SYSTEM REACHING
TROPICAL STORM STATUS IN 48-72 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

霧峰追風者

JTWC 17Z評級提升至Medium

(2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 8.9S 54.4E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.7S 53.0E, APPROXIMATELY 711
NM NORTH OF LA REUNION. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND A PARTIAL 211551Z GMI 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOW FRAGMENTED,
FORMATIVE BANDING ASSOCIATED WITH THE BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION.
UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS DEPICTS LOW TO MODERATE (10-25 KNOTS) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (5-10 KNOTS) WITH POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO THE UPPER LEVEL
WESTERLIES TO THE SOUTH. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-29 CELSIUS) IN
THE SURROUNDING WATERS REMAIN SUPPORTIVE FOR FUTURE DEVELOPMENT.  
GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE A WESTWARD TO SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK WITH
GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION IN 48-72 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO
MEDIUM.

老農民版夜神月

22/00Z,JTWC升格TD

SH, 91, 2019042112, , BEST, 0, 91S, 540E, 20, 1004, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, ,
SH, 91, 2019042118, , BEST, 0, 97S, 530E, 20, 1005, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1008, 170, 40, 0, 0, S, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
SH, 91, 2019042200, , BEST, 0, 94S, 522E, 25, 1004, TD, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1007, 170, 40, 0, 0, S, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,

霧峰追風者

WTIO30 FMEE 221257
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 1/14/20182019
1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 14
2.A POSITION 2019/04/22 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 9.4 S / 50.5 E
(NINE    DECIMAL FOUR   DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY    DECIMAL FIVE   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST 6 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 1.5/1.5/D 0.5/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1006 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 20 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
NIL
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/04/23 00 UTC: 9.5 S / 49.2 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE
24H: 2019/04/23 12 UTC: 9.8 S / 48.1 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE
36H: 2019/04/24 00 UTC: 10.2 S / 46.7 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE
48H: 2019/04/24 12 UTC: 10.5 S / 45.0 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
60H: 2019/04/25 00 UTC: 10.9 S / 42.7 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
72H: 2019/04/25 12 UTC: 11.2 S / 41.0 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2019/04/26 12 UTC: 11.8 S / 40.1 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
120H: 2019/04/27 12 UTC: 13.0 S / 40.7 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
THE CIRCULATION IS PARTIALLY EXPOSED WITH DEEP CONVECTION WITHIN THE
SOUTHWESTERN AREA. DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS FLUCTUATING BUT WITH SIGN
OF CURVATURE SHOWING ORGANIZATION GAIN. MINIMAL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
AT 1006 HPA. MAXIMAL WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 KT AND LOCALLY 20/25
KT WITHIN 20/250KT OVER THE SOUTHERN QUADRANT.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE MARGINALLY FAVOURABLE FOR SIGNIFICANTLY
DEEPENING. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS GOOD POLEWARD BUT WEAK
EQUATORWARD. IN UPPER LEVEL, EASTERLIES DUE TO THE KELVIN WAVE SHOULD
MAINTAIN A MODERATE EASTERN VERTICAL WINDSHEARTHE VERTICAL WINDSHEAR
IS FORESCASTED TO WEAKEN FROM TO THE SECOND PART OF THE WEEK. THE
LLCC IS FORESCASTED TO MOVE WESTWARD OVER THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A A
LOW/MID LEVEL RIDGE THAT SHOULD STRENGHEN FROM TUESDAY.
NEXT ADVISORY TOMORROW AT 0600Z.=

霧峰追風者

JTWC 12Z發布TCFA。

sh9119.kmz        22-Apr-2019 13:26        306K

TPXS11 PGTW 221214
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 91S (NE OF MADAGASCAR)
B. 22/1145Z
C. 9.42S
D. 51.62E
E. FIVE/HMWRI8
F. T1.0/1.0  STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .25 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT OF 1.0. MET/PT AGREE. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE

   MARTIN

TXXS23 KNES 221236
TCSSIO
A.  TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (91S)
B.  22/1130Z
C.  9.4S
D.  51.3E
E.  FIVE/MET-8
F.  T1.0/1.0/D1.0/24HRS
G.  IR/EIR/VIS
H.  REMARKS...DT OF 1.0 IS BASED ON GT 0.2 CURVED BANDING. MET AND PT
ARE 1.0. FT IS BASED ON DT.
I.  ADDL POSITIONS
    NIL

...RAMIREZ

老農民版夜神月

Tropical Disturbance in North-East of Madagascar :
Geostationary satellite animation satellite imagery shows a LLCC centred near 9.1S/51.5E at 0600
Z. The circulation is partially exposed with deep convection within the southwestern area. Deep
convection remains fluctuating but with sign of curvature showing organization gain. Minimal
pressure is estimated at 1006 hPa. Maximal winds are estimated at 15 kt and locally 20/25 kt within
20/250kt over the southern quadrant.
Environmental conditions are marginally favourable for significantly deepening. Low level
convergence is good poleward but weak equatorward. In upper level, easterlies due to the Kelvin
wave should maintain a moderate eastern vertical windshearThe vertical windshear is forescasted to
weaken from to the second part of the week. The LLCC is forescasted to move westward over the
northern edge of a a low/mid level ridge that should strenghen from Tuesday.
For the next five days, the risk of formation of a moderate tropical storm becomes strong
Wednesday north of the Comoros archipelago.