霧峰追風者

中心登陸，JTWC18Z發出FW。

WTXS31 PGTW 252100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (KENNETH) WARNING NR 012//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (KENNETH) WARNING NR 012   
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   251800Z --- NEAR 12.3S 40.1E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 12.3S 40.1E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   260600Z --- 12.5S 39.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   261800Z --- 12.8S 38.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 01 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   270600Z --- 13.0S 38.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
252100Z POSITION NEAR 12.3S 39.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 24S (KENNETH), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 594 NM
NORTH OF EUROPA ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A DRASTIC WEAKENING, WARMING, AND
SHRINKING OF THE CENTRAL CONVECTION OF TC 24S. THE INITIAL POSITION
IS BASED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE ON TURNING IN THE EIR LOOP, WHICH IS
OBSCURING THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), AND A 251557Z
SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE WHICH REVEALS A SMALL BALL OF REMAINING
DEEP CONVECTION THAT IS OVER LAND. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ASSESSED
AT 75 KNOTS WITH LOW CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE RAPID DISSOLUTION OF
CONVECTION AND STRUCTURE OVER LAND. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A
FAVORABLE ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR, WITH MODERATE BUT WEAKENING DIVERGENCE ALOFT. HOWEVER, LAND
INTERACTION WILL DOMINATE AND QUICKLY WEAKEN TC 24S. TC 24S IS
FORECAST TO MOVE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AND SLOW DOWN ALONG THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO ITS SOUTH THROUGH TAU
24. AFTER TAU 24, THE STR IS FORECAST TO ERODE AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
DEEPENS TO THE SOUTH, WHICH WILL RESULT IN A SLOW SOUTHWESTWARD TO
SOUTHWARD DRIFT WHILE STILL OVER LAND. THERE IS A SLIGHT POSSIBILITY
THAT THE SYSTEM MAY TRACK BACK OVER WATER AFTER TAU 72, HOWEVER, THE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO HAVE WEAKENED SIGNIFICANTLY BY THAT TIME, AND
MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE BEEN WALKING TOWARDS THE WEST, FAVORING THE
REMNANTS OF TC 24S STAYING OVER LAND FOR LONGER. OVERALL, THERE IS
LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK DUE TO THE WEAK STEERING
ENVIRONMENT AND POTENTIAL FOR QUASI-STATIONARY MOTION AFTER TAU 24
AS REFLECTED IN THE LARGE SPREAD OF DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE AFTER TAU
24. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON
WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR
SIGNS OF REGENERATION. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 25S (LORNA)
WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

MFR 判定為陸上低壓，逐漸減弱。

WTIO31 FMEE 260030
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN INDIEN)
0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 14/14/20182019
1.A DEPRESSION SUR TERRE 14 (EX-KENNETH)
2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 26/04/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 12.4 S / 39.6 E
(DOUZE DEGRES QUATRE SUD ET TRENTE NEUF DEGRES SIX EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-SUD-OUEST 5 KT
3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: NON RENSEIGNE
4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 995 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 35 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 28 KM
6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 170 SO: 170 NO: 110
34 KT NE: 40 SE: 60 SO: 60 NO: 40
7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1008 HPA / 200 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: MOYENNE
1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 26/04/2019 12 UTC: 12.7 S / 39.2 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION SUR TERRE
24H: 27/04/2019 00 UTC: 13.0 S / 39.5 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION SUR TERRE
36H: 27/04/2019 12 UTC: 12.7 S / 39.7 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, DEPRESSION SUR TERRE
2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE
2.C COMMENTAIRES:
LE CENTRE DE EX-KENNETH EST A PRESENT ESTIME A PRES DE 110KM A
L'INTERIEUR DES TERRES MOZAMBICAINES. IL VA POURSUIVRE SA TRAJECTOIRE
VERS L'OUEST-SUD-OUEST PUIS REALISER UNE LARGE BOUCLE. PAR LA SUITE, LA
TRAJECTOIRE DU MINIMUM RESIDUEL SUR TERRE RESTE INCERTAINE. SOUS
L'INFLUENCE D'UNE DORSALE SUBTROPICALE QUI SE MET EN PLACE SUR
L'AFRIQUE AUSTRALE, IL POURRAIT REMONTER VERS LE NORD AVANT UN
HYPOTHETIQUE RETOUR SUR MER EN DEBUT DE SEMAINE PROCHAINE.
BIEN QUE LES VENTS VONT CONTINUER A FAIBLIR SIGNIFICATIVEMENT, LES
RESTES DE LA CIRCULATION EX-KENNETH POURRAIENT PERSISTER PLUSIEURS
JOURS SUR LE MOZAMBIQUE. LES FORTES PLUIES ASSOCIEES A EX-KENNETH VONT
CONTINUER ET RISQUENT D'OCCASIONNER DES INONDATIONS SUR LE
MOZAMBIQUE.

蜜露

紀錄以來，史上登陸非洲最強的氣旋肯尼斯，已經登陸了莫三比克（強烈颱風等級）
氣旋肯尼斯登陸了莫三比克奎林巴斯國家公園、彭巴附近


目前造成有６人死亡。


















不過這次登陸人口較少，跟前一個氣旋伊代登陸地方距離也很遠。