老農民版夜神月

JTWC發布TCFA

WTPN21 PHNC 141830
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 94E)//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/132051Z AUG 20//
AMPN/REF A IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 11.8N 116.4W TO 18.3N 117.0W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 141200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 12.5N 116.5W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 02
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94E) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
12.5N 116.5W, APPROXIMATELY 488 NM SOUTHWEST OF SOCORRO, MEXICO.
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS PERSISTENT DEEP
CONVECTION OVERHEAD AN ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). A
141717Z METOP-B MHS 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS DEEP CONVECTION
DIRECTLY OVERHEAD THE LLC WITH FORMATIVE BANDING EXTENDING ALONG THE
SOUTHERN EDGE. A 141602Z METOP-A ASCAT PASS SHOWS THE SW-NE
ORIENTED, HIGHLY ELONGATED LLC WITH A SMALL SWATH OF 30 KNOT WINDS
EMBEDDED IN 20 KNOT WINDS EXTENDING ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE. 94E IS
CURRENTLY IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW,
LOW (5 TO 10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (28 TO 29 CELSIUS)
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
94E WILL TRACK GENERALLY NORTHWARD WHILE INTENSIFYING BEFORE
BEGINNING TO INTERACT WITH ANOTHER CIRCULATION TO THE NORTHEAST.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
151830Z.
4. SEE REF A (WTPN22 PHNC) FOR DETAILS ON A TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION ALERT LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 107.9W.//
NNNN

老農民版夜神月

NHC評級提升至High,展望70%

2. Another area of disturbed weather associated with a trough of low
pressure is located nearly 1000 miles southwest of the southern tip
of the Baja California peninsula. Environmental conditions are
expected to be favorable for the development of this system and it
will likely become a tropical depression while it moves slowly
northward during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.