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JTWC評級low
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91P) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
14.5S 146.5E, APPROXIMATELY 154 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF CAIRNS,
AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A
DISORGANIZED CIRCULATION WITH FLARING CONVECTION WITHIN THE SOUTHERN
SEMICIRCLE. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT INVEST 91P IS IN A
GENERALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE
(15-20 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, GOOD OUTFLOW ALOFT, AND WARM (29-
30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS VARY ON THE DEVELOPMENT
OF INVEST 91P WITH NAVGEM DEPICTING THE SYSTEM INTENSIFYING AND
TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE AUSTRALIAN COAST. THE ECMWF GLOBAL
MODEL PREDICTS MODEST INTENSIFICATION AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS SOUTHWARD
BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL, WHILE GFS DOES NOT DEPICT INTENSIFICATION.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW. 
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