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06P.Ula 跨年熱帶氣旋 二次巔峰後終轉化

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[LV.9]以壇為家II

Meow|2016-1-11 10:30 | 顯示全部樓層
Patricia算啥?:@

  1. WTPS11 NFFN 110000
  2. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A47 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
  3. Jan 110156 UTC.

  4. SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE ULA CENTRE 965HPA CATEGORY 3 WAS LOCATED NEAR
  5. 22.9S 169.9E AT 110000 UTC. POSITION FAIR BASED ON HR MTSAT IR/VIS
  6. IMAGERY. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT 09 KNOTS. EXPECT
  7. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 850 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE.
  8. EXPECT WINDS OVER 63 KNOTS WITHIN 25 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE,      
  9.                                                    
  10.              OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 45 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE,      
  11.                   
  12.              OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 100 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE IN
  13. EAST SEMICIRCLE                       
  14.                        AND WITHIN 70 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE IN WEST
  15. SEMICIRCLE.

  16. DEEP CONVECTION HAS DECREASED WITH CLOUD TOPS WARMING PAST 6 HOURS.
  17. ORGANISATION HAS DECREASED SLIGHTLY PAST 6 HOURS. OUTFLOW GOOD. SST
  18. AROUND 26 TO 27 DEGREES. SYSTEM LIES UNDER A STRONG UPPER DIVERGENCE
  19. REGION IN A LOW TO MODERATE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. ULA IS BEING STEERED
  20. TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST BY THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE
  21. SOUTHEAST. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON EMBEDDED CENTRE PATTERN WITH MG
  22. SURROUND AND EYE ADJUSTMENT YEILDS DT=4.5, MET=5.0 AND PT=4.5. FT
  23. BASED ON DT. THUS YIELDING T4.5/5.0/W1.5/24HRS.

  24. FORECASTS :
  25. AT 12 HRS VALID AT 111200 UTC 25.2S 170.5E MOV SSE AT 12KT WITH 65 KT
  26. CLOSE TO CENTRE
  27. AT 24 HRS VALID AT 120000 UTC 27.5S 172.1E MOV SSE AT 13KT WITH 55 KT
  28. CLOSE TO CENTRE

  29. THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON ULA WILL BE ISSUED AROUND
  30. 110800 UTC.
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點評

是生氣Patricia不成材,175還敢叫板850?  發表於 2016-1-12 21:12
alu
Meow大大 別生氣,想也知道資料多打了個0啊?!沒有校正到而已  發表於 2016-1-11 22:44
這個資料是不是多打了個0啊!?  發表於 2016-1-11 14:27
Ula已成為有記錄以來風力最強的熱帶氣旋中心風力850kts!!!!  發表於 2016-1-11 13:26
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[LV.9]以壇為家II

Meow|2016-1-11 21:29 | 顯示全部樓層
紐西蘭接手發報。

TROPICAL CYCLONE HURRICANE WARNING 107
This affects ocean area: SUBTROPIC
Tropical Cyclone ULA [970hPa] centre was located near 24.9 South 170.4 East at 111200 UTC.
Position Fair.
Repeat position 24.9S 170.4E at 111200 UTC.
Cyclone is moving southsoutheast 14 knots.
Expect sustained winds of 85 knots close to the centre with phenomenal sea.
Expect winds over 63 knots within 25 nautical miles of centre.
Expect winds over 47 knots within 60 nautical miles of centre in the southeast semicircle and within 30 nautical miles of centre in the northwest semicircle with high to very high sea and moderate to heavy swell.
Expect winds over 33 knots within 110 nautical miles of centre in the eastern semicircle and within 80 nautical miles of centre in the western semicircle with very rough sea and moderate to heavy swell.

Forecast position near 26.9S 171.4E at 120000 UTC
and near 28.7S 173.3E at 121200 UTC.
This warning cancels and replaces warning 105.
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[LV.8]以壇為家I

krichard2011|2016-1-12 15:52 | 顯示全部樓層
再補一張 2016.01.10 VIIRS 捕捉到的 Ula
拍攝的時機 角度都抓的剛剛好...
剛好處在 Ula 的CDO最飽滿與風眼最清晰的時刻
相當美麗動人
VIIRS 2016.01.10.jpg

點評

這貨或許有130KT的CAT4氣旋風力吧?  發表於 2016-1-12 15:57
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[LV.9]以壇為家II

蜜露|2016-1-12 21:01 | 顯示全部樓層
本帖最後由 蜜露 於 2016-1-19 11:41 編輯

W環寬度雖然有合格. 型態也是130kts 但是很不穩.且很短暫. 環狀底層也不是特別佳.

假設和杜鵑放在一塊.  Ula 我想125kt.就OK了
可能也比不過2014年的Ian

20160110.0950.himawari-8.ir.06P.ULA.115kts.937mb.20.5S.170.6E.100pc.jpg


20160110.1000.himawari-8.ircolor.06P.ULA.115kts.937mb.20.5S.170.6E.100pc.jpg


20160110.1000.himawari8.x.wv1km.06PULA.115kts-937mb-213S-1703E.100pc.jpg

12400859_1060861393976029_8891955545377655776_n.jpg
NRL水汽圖登錄向日葵-8衛星之後. 好像水汽就一直就樣?

EOSDIS 去年年底也更新了VIIRS的雲圖

但是和NOAA那個網站的比. 感覺EOSDIS的比較亮白.

K.Richard傳的是NOAA的.

而這個我傳的是EOSDIS

image-download (2).jpg




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[LV.9]以壇為家II

Meow|2016-1-12 21:13 | 顯示全部樓層
2016年1月10日索米NPP衛星截取萬那杜東南方的強烈熱帶氣旋Ula。

Ula 2016-01-10 0205Z.jpg
https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Ula_2016-01-10_0205Z.jpg
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