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Patricia算啥？:@
- WTPS11 NFFN 110000
- TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A47 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
- Jan 110156 UTC.
- SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE ULA CENTRE 965HPA CATEGORY 3 WAS LOCATED NEAR
- 22.9S 169.9E AT 110000 UTC. POSITION FAIR BASED ON HR MTSAT IR/VIS
- IMAGERY. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT 09 KNOTS. EXPECT
- SUSTAINED WINDS OF 850 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE.
- EXPECT WINDS OVER 63 KNOTS WITHIN 25 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE,
-
- OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 45 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE,
-
- OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 100 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE IN
- EAST SEMICIRCLE
- AND WITHIN 70 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE IN WEST
- SEMICIRCLE.
- DEEP CONVECTION HAS DECREASED WITH CLOUD TOPS WARMING PAST 6 HOURS.
- ORGANISATION HAS DECREASED SLIGHTLY PAST 6 HOURS. OUTFLOW GOOD. SST
- AROUND 26 TO 27 DEGREES. SYSTEM LIES UNDER A STRONG UPPER DIVERGENCE
- REGION IN A LOW TO MODERATE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. ULA IS BEING STEERED
- TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST BY THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE
- SOUTHEAST. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON EMBEDDED CENTRE PATTERN WITH MG
- SURROUND AND EYE ADJUSTMENT YEILDS DT=4.5, MET=5.0 AND PT=4.5. FT
- BASED ON DT. THUS YIELDING T4.5/5.0/W1.5/24HRS.
- FORECASTS :
- AT 12 HRS VALID AT 111200 UTC 25.2S 170.5E MOV SSE AT 12KT WITH 65 KT
- CLOSE TO CENTRE
- AT 24 HRS VALID AT 120000 UTC 27.5S 172.1E MOV SSE AT 13KT WITH 55 KT
- CLOSE TO CENTRE
- THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON ULA WILL BE ISSUED AROUND
- 110800 UTC.
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