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06P.Ula 跨年熱帶氣旋 二次巔峰後終轉化

簽到天數: 3279 天

[LV.Master]伴壇終老

t02436|2016-1-9 00:54 | 顯示全部樓層
命名後第十天,前幾天通過斐濟南方海域之後二度增強,12Z重回三級強烈熱帶氣旋
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A38 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Jan 081347 UTC.

SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE ULA CENTRE 975HPA CATERGORY 3 WAS LOCATED
NEAR 18.5S 174.0E AT 081200 UTC. POSITION FAIR BASED ON HR MTSAT IR
IMAGERY. CYCLONE MOVING NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 02 KNOTS. EXPECT SUSTAINED
WINDS OF 65 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE.

EXPECT WINDS OVER 63 KNOTS WITHIN 15 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE,      
      
             OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE,      
      
             OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE.

DEEP CONVECTION HAS INCREASED WITH PRIMARY BANDS WRAPPING AROUND
LLCC. EYE VISIBLE IN IR IMAGERY IN PAST 5 HOURS. ORGANISATION REMAINS
GOOD. OUTFLOW GOOD. SST AROUND 28 DEGREES. SYSTEM LIES UNDER AN UPPER
RIDGE IN A LOW TO MODERATE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. SYSTEM IS TRACKING
NORTHWEST DUE TO THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE SOUTH. DVORAK
ANALYSIS BASED ON EYE PATTERN WITH 0W EYE IN LG SURROUND YIELDS
DT=4.5, MET AND PT AGREE. FT BASED ON DT. THUS YIELDING
T4.5/4.5/D1.5/24HRS.


FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 090000 UTC 18.7S 173.3E MOV WSW AT 03KT WITH 65 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 091200 UTC 19.1S 172.4E MOV WSW AT 04KT WITH 65 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 100000 UTC 19.8S 171.4E MOV WSW AT 05KT WITH 60 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 101200 UTC 20.9S 170.6E MOV lSW AT 05KT WITH 55 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON ULA WILL BE ISSUED AT OR
AROUND 082000 UTC.

65660.gif

JTWC 12Z評價65節,一樣重新回到C1
sh0616.gif

20160108.1511.noaa19.89rgb.06P.ULA.65kts.974mb.18.5S.174E.67pc.jpg

rbtop-animated.gif
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[LV.9]以壇為家II

蜜露|2016-1-9 11:58 | 顯示全部樓層


Ula的強度重新增強. 就是之前GFS報的二次巔峰

幾個小時前底層是好的.
GMI的最近顯示一張破的

20160108.2216.gpm.x.colorpct_89h_89v.06PULA.80kts-963mb-186S-1737E.47pc.jpg


2016SH06_4KMIRIMG_201601090300.GIF


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[LV.Master]伴壇終老

alu|2016-1-9 17:07 | 顯示全部樓層
這個旋風生命力也太強了,兩度減弱後又增強,還有超越之前的趨勢就算在西太也是難得有一個這種形式的颱風:funk:

點評

嘿對還有天鵝  發表於 2016-1-9 23:05
茉莉呢  發表於 2016-1-9 21:53
茉莉呢?  發表於 2016-1-9 21:53
阿阿抱歉哈洛拉只有一次@@應該說06年的伊歐佳~  發表於 2016-1-9 19:22
去年的跨洋颱哈洛拉?  發表於 2016-1-9 19:21
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[LV.9]以壇為家II

Meow|2016-1-9 17:36 | 顯示全部樓層
2016年1月9日斐濟西方的強烈熱帶氣旋Ula

Ula 2016-01-09 0230Z.jpg
https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Ula_2016-01-09_0230Z.jpg
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[LV.8]以壇為家I

krichard2011|2016-1-9 18:12 | 顯示全部樓層
這次的巔峰 FMS 認定比上一次的巔峰還要強
強度來到 80KT 對流雖然顯得稍弱
但風眼清晰 也算是一個小鋼炮系統
20160109.0800.himawari8.x.ir1km.06PULA.90kts-956mb-189S-1729E.100pc.jpg
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A41 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Jan 090724 UTC.

SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE ULA CENTRE 965HPA CATEGORY 3 WAS LOCATED NEAR
18.7S 172.9E AT 090600 UTC. POSITION GOOD BASED ON HR MTSAT IR
IMAGERY. CYCLONE MOVING WEST-SOUTHWEST  AT ABOUT 03 KNOTS. EXPECT
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 80 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 63 KNOTS WITHIN 15 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE,      
                                    
             OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE,      
     
         AND OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 80 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE.


EYE WELL DEFINED IN PAST 6 HOURS WITH CLOUD TOPS COOLING. DEEP
CONVECTION HAS INCREASED WITH CLOUD TOPS COOLING PAST 3 HOURS.
ORGANISATION REMAINS GOOD. OUTFLOW GOOD. SST AROUND 27 TO 28 DEGREES.
SYSTEM LIES UNDER A STRONG UPPER DIVERGENCE REGION IN A LOW TO
MODERATE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. SYSTEM IS TRACKING WEST-SOUTHWEST DUE
TO THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE SOUTHEAST. DVORAK ANALYSIS
BASED ON EYE PATTERN WITH OW EYE IN LG SURROUND YIELDS DT=5.0, MET
AND PT AGREE. FT BASED ON DT. THUS YIELDING T5.0/5.0/D1.5/24HRS.
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[LV.9]以壇為家II

劉瑞益@FB|2016-1-10 09:14 | 顯示全部樓層
提示: 作者被禁止或刪除 內容自動屏蔽
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[LV.9]以壇為家II

Meow|2016-1-10 13:44 | 顯示全部樓層
當地2016年1月10日萬那杜以東強烈熱帶氣旋Ula

Ula 2016-01-09 2250Z.jpg
https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Ula_2016-01-09_2250Z.jpg
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[LV.8]以壇為家I

krichard2011|2016-1-10 14:08 | 顯示全部樓層
01.10.0130 UTC 的CDO覺得比較均勻一些
可惜Aqua的影像是被切到的 因此擷取向日葵8號的影像 = =
會爆到C4個人也覺得滿驚喜的
HIMAWARI8_2015.01.10.jpg
更正 圖片的時間是錯的 應改為 2016
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