krichard2011

不得不說 熱帶氣旋可能真的是有生命的
他們會試著找對自己相當有利的路徑 避開陸地高山等障礙
把對自己的傷害降到最低
觀察了一下雷達 過去路徑西南西偏西
有疑似要鑽海峽的傾向= =
另外就在稍早似乎建立起了外眼牆
有疑似眼牆置換的徵兆 並且已經開始內縮

蜜露

溫士頓老J居然給了 160kts !!!

不過ADT已經有問題產生.  本來T 8.3  CI 8.1
(想說這怎麼可能...)

已經修回來了. 實際上是T 7.3 CI 7.2



不過他影響斐濟,已經確定是紀錄以來,強度最強的了.


底層相當的厚實.

krichard2011

JTWC 阿莎力 直接給了160KT 相當頂級的數字 @@
直接打敗南半球風王 Monica 接下來等待FMS會怎麼報
160個人覺得滿高估的...
如果照這種型態值160的話 那西太大概很多颱風都能給 160 165左右了= =
這標準是否太寬鬆了一些 = =

SH, 11, 2016022000,   , BEST,   0, 172S, 1799W, 160,  903, ST,  34, NEQ,   80,  120,   90,   90, 1000,  170,  12,   0,  15,   P,   0,    ,   0,   0,    WINSTON, D,
SH, 11, 2016022000,   , BEST,   0, 172S, 1799W, 160,  903, ST,  50, NEQ,   50,   70,   60,   60, 1000,  170,  12,   0,  15,   P,   0,    ,   0,   0,    WINSTON, D,
SH, 11, 2016022000,   , BEST,   0, 172S, 1799W, 160,  903, ST,  64, NEQ,   20,   30,   25,   25, 1000,  170,  12,   0,  15,   P,   0,    ,   0,   0,    WINSTON, D,

補充 FMS 上調 125 仍沒有奪下南半球風王寶座

HURRICANE WARNING 047 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Feb 200104 UTC.

SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE WINSTON CENTRE 917HPA CATEGORY 5 WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.0
SOUTH 179.9 EAST AT 200000 UTC.
POSITION GOOD.
REPEAT POSITION 17.0S 179.9E AT 200000 UTC.
CYCLONE MOVING WEST AT 13 KNOTS.
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 125 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE.

EXPECT WINDS OVER 63 KNOTS WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT,            
                                                                                
                                                           
                           WITHIN 160 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT,            
                                                                                
                                      
                           WITHIN 130 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT,            
                                                                              
                       AND WITHIN 100 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT.
  

FORECAST POSITION NEAR 17.1S 178.1E AT 201200 UTC
              AND NEAR 17.3S 176.7E AT 210000 UTC.

ALL VESSELS WITHIN 300 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE ARE REQUESTED TO SEND REPORTS
EVERY THREE HOURS TO RSMC NADI. VOS REPORTING SHIPS USE NORMAL CHANNELS. OTHER
VESSELS FAX PLUS 679 6720190 OR EMAIL NADITCC AT MET DOT GOV DOT FJ

THIS WARNING CANCELS AND REPLACES WARNING 046.

補充JTWC預測圖與報文

WTPS31 PGTW 200300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (WINSTON) WARNING NR 028//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (WINSTON) WARNING NR 028   
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   200000Z --- NEAR 17.2S 179.9W
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
     POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY A COMBINATION OF
     SATELLITE AND RADAR
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 160 KT, GUSTS 195 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 17.2S 179.9W
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   201200Z --- 17.0S 178.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   210000Z --- 17.0S 176.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   211200Z --- 17.3S 175.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   220000Z --- 17.8S 174.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   230000Z --- 19.6S 174.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   240000Z --- 23.5S 175.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   250000Z --- 27.0S 175.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
REMARKS:
200300Z POSITION NEAR 17.1S 179.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (WINSTON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 111 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED HIGH RESOLUTION VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND CURRENT ANIMATED RADAR IMAGERY FROM LABASA, FIJI, DEPICT
A STRONG SYMMETRICAL EYEWALL SURROUNDING A 15 NM EYE, PROVIDING HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
ASSESSED AT 160 KNOTS BASED ON A DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY VALUE OF
T7.5 (155 KNOTS) FROM PGTW AND ANALYSIS OF AVAILABLE OBJECTIVE DATA.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT TC WINSTON REMAINS IN A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH STRONG RADIAL OUTFLOW, LOW (10 TO 15
KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND VERY HIGH SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (SSTS). TC WINSTON CONTINUES TO TRACK WESTWARD ALONG
THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO
THE SOUTH. BY TAU 36, TC WINSTON WILL BEGIN A SLOW TURN TOWARDS THE
SOUTHWEST, ACCELERATING AND TURNING MORE SOUTHWARD AFTER TAU 48 IN
RESPONSE TO DEVELOPMENT OF A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND CUTOFF LOW
TO THE SOUTHWEST. TC WINSTON HAS REACHED ITS PEAK INTENSITY AND WILL
BEGIN TO WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE
TERRAIN FEATURES OF THE FIJI ISLANDS. HOWEVER, THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO RE-INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY BY TAU 36 AFTER IT MOVES INTO OPEN
WATERS WITH VERY HIGH SSTS, WHILE REMAINING IN A RELATIVELY LOW
SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. AFTER TURNING SOUTHWARD AND BY TAU 72, THE SYSTEM
WILL BEGIN WEAKENING AS IT TRACKS OVER COLDER SSTS AND ENCOUNTERS
HIGHER VWS. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEGUN TO DIVERGE SOMEWHAT
AFTER TAU 48 AND THERE IS MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST
TRACK AFTER THIS POINT. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 200000Z
IS 40 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 200900Z, 201500Z, 202100Z AND 210300Z.//
NNNN

krichard2011

底層結構很扎實 稍早雷達缺了一角
推測是LABASA雷達站陣亡了
再補一張稍早台灣時間6:40的可見光影像
形態上算是相當不錯 但希望不要對當地造成太嚴重的災情

Meow

JTWC竟然上望160kt了，南半球還沒有這種記錄。:lol

1. WTPS31 PGTW 192100
   
2. MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
   
3. SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
   
4. RMKS/
   
5. 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (WINSTON) WARNING NR 027   
   
6.    01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   
7.    MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   
8.    WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   
9.     ---
   
10.    WARNING POSITION:
    
11.    191800Z --- NEAR 17.2S 178.9W
    
12.      MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
    
13.      POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
    
14.      POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
    
15.    PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
    
16.    MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 145 KT, GUSTS 175 KT
    
17.    WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    
18.    RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
    
19.                             020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
    
20.                             035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
    
21.                             035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    
22.    RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
    
23.                             060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
    
24.                             075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
    
25.                             075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    
26.    RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
    
27.                             150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
    
28.                             160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
    
29.                             140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    
30.    REPEAT POSIT: 17.2S 178.9W
    
31.     ---
    
32.    FORECASTS:
    
33.    12 HRS, VALID AT:
    
34.    200600Z --- 17.0S 178.8E
    
35.    MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 160 KT, GUSTS 195 KT
    
36.    WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    
37.    RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
    
38.                             020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
    
39.                             020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
    
40.                             020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    
41.    RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
    
42.                             050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
    
43.                             040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
    
44.                             040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    
45.    RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
    
46.                             130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
    
47.                             120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
    
48.                             120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    
49.    VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 08 KTS
    
50.     ---
    
51.    24 HRS, VALID AT:
    
52.    201800Z --- 17.1S 177.2E
    
53.    MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
    
54.    WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    
55.    RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
    
56.                             020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
    
57.                             020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
    
58.                             020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    
59.    RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
    
60.                             050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
    
61.                             040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
    
62.                             040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    
63.    RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
    
64.                             130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
    
65.                             120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
    
66.                             120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    
67.    VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 07 KTS
    
68.     ---
    
69.    36 HRS, VALID AT:
    
70.    210600Z --- 17.4S 175.8E
    
71.    MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
    
72.    WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    
73.    RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
    
74.                             020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
    
75.                             020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
    
76.                             020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    
77.    RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
    
78.                             050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
    
79.                             040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
    
80.                             040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    
81.    RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
    
82.                             130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
    
83.                             120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
    
84.                             120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    
85.    VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 04 KTS
    
86.     ---
    
87.    EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
    
88.    48 HRS, VALID AT:
    
89.    211800Z --- 17.7S 175.0E
    
90.    MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
    
91.    WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    
92.    RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
    
93.                             025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
    
94.                             025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
    
95.                             025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    
96.    RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
    
97.                             060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
    
98.                             050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
    
99.                             050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    
100.    RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
     
101.                             140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
     
102.                             130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
     
103.                             130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
     
104.    VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 03 KTS
     
105.     ---
     
106.    72 HRS, VALID AT:
     
107.    221800Z --- 18.9S 174.8E
     
108.    MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
     
109.    WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
     
110.    RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
     
111.                             030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
     
112.                             030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
     
113.                             030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
     
114.    RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
     
115.                             070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
     
116.                             070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
     
117.                             060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
     
118.    RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
     
119.                             150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
     
120.                             150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
     
121.                             130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
     
122.    VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 09 KTS
     
123.     ---
     
124.    LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
     
125.     ---
     
126.    96 HRS, VALID AT:
     
127.    231800Z --- 22.4S 175.9E
     
128.    MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
     
129.    WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
     
130.    VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 09 KTS
     
131.     ---
     
132.    120 HRS, VALID AT:
     
133.    241800Z --- 25.8S 176.7E
     
134.    MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
     
135.    WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
     
136.     ---
     
137. REMARKS:
     
138. 192100Z POSITION NEAR 17.1S 179.5W.
     
139. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (WINSTON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 164 NM
     
140. EAST-NORTHEAST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS
     
141. OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
     
142. IMAGERY, CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY FROM LABASA, FIJI AND A 191815Z SSMIS
     
143. 91 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE CONTINUE TO REVEAL A SYMMETRIC EYEWALL
     
144. SURROUNDING A 15 NM EYE AND THE MAINTENANCE OF DEEP CONVECTION OVER
     
145. THE PAST 6-HOURS, PROVIDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION.
     
146. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 145 KNOTS BASED ON ANALYSIS OF
     
147. ALL AVAILABLE SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES.
     
148. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT TC WINSTON REMAINS IN A FAVORABLE
     
149. ENVIRONMENT WITH STRONG RADIAL OUTFLOW, LOW (10 TO 15 KNOTS)
     
150. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND VERY HIGH SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
     
151. (SSTS) OVER 31 CELSIUS. TC 11P IS CURRENTLY TRACKING WESTWARD UNDER
     
152. THE INFLUENCE OF A DEEP-LAYER SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTH.
     
153. BY TAU 36, TC WINSTON WILL BEGIN SLOWING, BECOMING NEARLY QUASI-
     
154. STATIONARY BEFORE TURNING MORE SHARPLY TOWARDS THE SOUTH AFTER TAU
     
155. 48 IN RESPONSE TO WEAKENING OF THE STEERING RIDGE AND CONCURRENT
     
156. DEVELOPMENT OF AN UPPER-LEVEL CUTOFF LOW TO THE SOUTHWEST. TC
     
157. WINSTON IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS
     
158. AS UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS AND SSTS REMAIN EXTREMELY FAVORABLE,
     
159. PEAKING AT 160 KNOTS JUST PRIOR TO MAKING LANDFALL ALONG THE EAST
     
160. COAST OF THE NORTHERN FIJI ISLANDS. AFTER TAU 12, TC WINSTON WILL
     
161. WEAKEN SOMEWHAT AFTER LANDFALL DUE TO LAND INTERACTION. ONCE OVER
     
162. OPEN WATERS BY TAU 36, TC WINSTON WILL MAINTAIN INTENSITY AS A
     
163. SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE, BEFORE BEGINNING A SLOW WEAKENING
     
164. TREND AFTER TAU 96 AS IT TRACKS OVER COLDER SSTS AND ENCOUNTERS
     
165. HIGHER VWS AS IT BECOMES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE TROUGH. DYNAMIC MODEL
     
166. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO CONSOLIDATE ON THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC STEERING
     
167. PATTERN AND IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 72, LEADING TO HIGH
     
168. CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
     
169. HEIGHT AT 191800Z IS 40 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 200300Z, 200900Z,
     
170. 201500Z AND 202100Z.//
     
171. NNNN

複製代碼

Meow

系統重新拿GOES-15雲圖分析前半天的，之前的數值都變了。現在真相大白，是CIMSS的ADT處理向日葵8號的規則有問題。一從GOES-15切換到向日葵8號，Adj T和Raw T即開火箭。

2016FEB19 175200  6.9  918.2 137.4  6.7 6.4 4.4  0.5T/hour  ON  OFF  -69.76 -70.15  UNIFRM   N/A   77.4  -17.30  177.50  FCST   GOES15 52.1
2016FEB19 190000  6.9  917.8 137.4  6.9 8.0 8.1  1.3T/6hr  OFF  OFF    9.16 -79.65  EYE     18 IR  77.4  -17.19  178.87  COMBO   HIM-8 49.6

Meow

直上145kt，南半球年度首個SSHWS五級達成。

SH, 11, 2016021918,   , BEST,   0, 172S, 1789W, 145,  914, ST,

Meow

CI8.1，超越海燕，直逼Patricia。OW+CMG。

2016FEB19 173000  8.1  880.3 173.0  8.1 8.2 8.2  NO LIMIT  OFF  OFF    1.61 -80.65  EYE     19 IR  77.4  -17.27  178.49  SPRL    HIM-8 50.0