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11P.Winston 巔峰橫掃斐濟-FMS評價150KT南半球史上最強

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krichard2011|2016-2-19 19:47 | 顯示全部樓層
風眼清空 CDO 對流爆發 CDG 甚至已經成環
推測可能已經有猛爆性增強(RI)的情形
這強度發展加上這路徑 斐濟真的要繃緊神經了
ADT 的T值甚至分析出 T7.9 的驚人數字
可見上次 ADT 把頂端修改為T8.5是必要的 XD
20160219.1100.himawari-8.ircolor.11P.WINSTON.125kts.929mb.17.5S.175.9W.100pc.jpg
20160219.1100.himawari-8.irbd.11P.WINSTON.125kts.929mb.17.5S.175.9W.100pc.jpg
11PP.GIF

點評

嗯嗯ci7.9真的高估非常多 尤其眼溫還待加強 不過應該算接近c5邊緣了  發表於 2016-2-20 00:07
按照2016為止.Winston是風王沒錯. Uriah和Ula 都不是對手  發表於 2016-2-19 23:29
其實這隻滿高估的. 外表披著野狼 , 本體只是小狗. CMG+OW = 140Kts / 可能還比不上梅莎 紅霞  發表於 2016-2-19 23:28
最新報老J暫時還是125kts,打平Uriah,可能是滯後性? 照Dvorak C5應該不是問題,畢竟CI都7.9了...  發表於 2016-2-19 22:38
alu
要成為南太風王了嗎?  發表於 2016-2-19 22:27
Patricia之後又要準備破8.0了嗎@@才4個月欸...  發表於 2016-2-19 20:10
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Meow|2016-2-20 00:45 | 顯示全部樓層
CI8.0:lol

2016FEB19 153000  8.0  883.7 170.0  8.0 8.3 8.3  NO LIMIT  OFF  OFF   11.18 -80.65  EYE     18 IR  77.4  -17.35  178.03  COMBO   HIM-8 50.5
11P.GIF
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Meow|2016-2-20 01:33 | 顯示全部樓層
月光看起來不錯
20160219.122429.npp.viirs.Lunar-Reflectance.tc1611PWINSTON_02191200.covg89p0.x.res1km.jpg
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krichard2011|2016-2-20 01:38 | 顯示全部樓層
20160219.1518.f16.x.colorpct_91h_91v.11PWINSTON.125kts-929mb-173S-1775W.57pc.jpg
animated_fij.gif
Winston 風眼已逐漸進入 FMS 的雷達範圍
底層結構算是相當完整
如強度保持不變的話 將可能成為登陸斐濟史上最強的熱帶氣旋
以路徑來看的話 其中心很有機會命中Vanua Balavu (Fiji)
並且該站已測到海平面氣壓 988.4百帕 與每小時74公里十分鐘持續風
從雲圖來看目測已經正中該島嶼
由於該站為每三小時更新 可以等待以下測站18Z 或 21Z 所放出的實測資料
http://ogimet.com/cgi-bin/gsynre ... y=20&hora=17&min=21

有興趣的亦可以追蹤以下測站之實測即時資料
Fiji - Suva
http://www.bom.gov.au/cosppac/rt ... ation_number=200863
Fiji - Lautoka.
http://www.bom.gov.au/cosppac/rt ... ation_number=200856

補充:
JTWC分析 T7.0
不過認為風眼還不夠渾圓
推測下一報有機會給予 135~140KT 左右的評價
TPPS11 PGTW 191511

A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (WINSTON)

B. 19/1453Z

C. 17.16S

D. 178.17W

E. THREE/GOES15

F. T7.0/7.0/D1.5/24HRS  STT: D0.5/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 09A/PBO RAGGED EYE/ANMTN. OW EYE SURROUNDED BY CMG
(ADDED 0.5 EYE ADJUSTMENT) YIELDS A DT OF 7.0. MET AND PT AGREE
WITH DT. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
   19/0928Z  17.27S  176.80W  MMHS


   CHAPPOTIN
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Meow|2016-2-20 02:18 | 顯示全部樓層
CI8.1,超越海燕,直逼Patricia。OW+CMG。

2016FEB19 173000  8.1  880.3 173.0  8.1 8.2 8.2  NO LIMIT  OFF  OFF    1.61 -80.65  EYE     19 IR  77.4  -17.27  178.49  SPRL    HIM-8 50.0
11P.GIF
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Meow|2016-2-20 03:04 | 顯示全部樓層
直上145kt,南半球年度首個SSHWS五級達成。

SH, 11, 2016021918,   , BEST,   0, 172S, 1789W, 145,  914, ST,
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Meow|2016-2-20 03:47 | 顯示全部樓層
系統重新拿GOES-15雲圖分析前半天的,之前的數值都變了。現在真相大白,是CIMSS的ADT處理向日葵8號的規則有問題。一從GOES-15切換到向日葵8號,Adj T和Raw T即開火箭。

2016FEB19 175200  6.9  918.2 137.4  6.7 6.4 4.4  0.5T/hour  ON  OFF  -69.76 -70.15  UNIFRM   N/A   77.4  -17.30  177.50  FCST   GOES15 52.1
2016FEB19 190000  6.9  917.8 137.4  6.9 8.0 8.1  1.3T/6hr  OFF  OFF    9.16 -79.65  EYE     18 IR  77.4  -17.19  178.87  COMBO   HIM-8 49.6
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Meow|2016-2-20 04:33 | 顯示全部樓層
本帖最後由 Meow 於 2016-2-20 04:39 編輯

JTWC竟然上望160kt了,南半球還沒有這種記錄。:lol

sh1116.gif

  1. WTPS31 PGTW 192100
  2. MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
  3. SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
  4. RMKS/
  5. 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (WINSTON) WARNING NR 027   
  6.    01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
  7.    MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
  8.    WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
  9.     ---
  10.    WARNING POSITION:
  11.    191800Z --- NEAR 17.2S 178.9W
  12.      MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
  13.      POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
  14.      POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
  15.    PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
  16.    MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 145 KT, GUSTS 175 KT
  17.    WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
  18.    RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
  19.                             020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
  20.                             035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
  21.                             035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
  22.    RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
  23.                             060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
  24.                             075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
  25.                             075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
  26.    RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
  27.                             150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
  28.                             160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
  29.                             140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
  30.    REPEAT POSIT: 17.2S 178.9W
  31.     ---
  32.    FORECASTS:
  33.    12 HRS, VALID AT:
  34.    200600Z --- 17.0S 178.8E
  35.    MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 160 KT, GUSTS 195 KT
  36.    WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
  37.    RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
  38.                             020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
  39.                             020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
  40.                             020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
  41.    RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
  42.                             050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
  43.                             040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
  44.                             040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
  45.    RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
  46.                             130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
  47.                             120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
  48.                             120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
  49.    VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 08 KTS
  50.     ---
  51.    24 HRS, VALID AT:
  52.    201800Z --- 17.1S 177.2E
  53.    MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
  54.    WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
  55.    RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
  56.                             020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
  57.                             020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
  58.                             020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
  59.    RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
  60.                             050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
  61.                             040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
  62.                             040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
  63.    RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
  64.                             130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
  65.                             120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
  66.                             120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
  67.    VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 07 KTS
  68.     ---
  69.    36 HRS, VALID AT:
  70.    210600Z --- 17.4S 175.8E
  71.    MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
  72.    WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
  73.    RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
  74.                             020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
  75.                             020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
  76.                             020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
  77.    RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
  78.                             050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
  79.                             040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
  80.                             040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
  81.    RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
  82.                             130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
  83.                             120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
  84.                             120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
  85.    VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 04 KTS
  86.     ---
  87.    EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
  88.    48 HRS, VALID AT:
  89.    211800Z --- 17.7S 175.0E
  90.    MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
  91.    WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
  92.    RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
  93.                             025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
  94.                             025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
  95.                             025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
  96.    RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
  97.                             060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
  98.                             050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
  99.                             050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
  100.    RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
  101.                             140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
  102.                             130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
  103.                             130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
  104.    VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 03 KTS
  105.     ---
  106.    72 HRS, VALID AT:
  107.    221800Z --- 18.9S 174.8E
  108.    MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
  109.    WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
  110.    RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
  111.                             030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
  112.                             030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
  113.                             030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
  114.    RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
  115.                             070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
  116.                             070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
  117.                             060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
  118.    RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
  119.                             150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
  120.                             150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
  121.                             130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
  122.    VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 09 KTS
  123.     ---
  124.    LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
  125.     ---
  126.    96 HRS, VALID AT:
  127.    231800Z --- 22.4S 175.9E
  128.    MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
  129.    WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
  130.    VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 09 KTS
  131.     ---
  132.    120 HRS, VALID AT:
  133.    241800Z --- 25.8S 176.7E
  134.    MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
  135.    WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
  136.     ---
  137. REMARKS:
  138. 192100Z POSITION NEAR 17.1S 179.5W.
  139. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (WINSTON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 164 NM
  140. EAST-NORTHEAST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS
  141. OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
  142. IMAGERY, CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY FROM LABASA, FIJI AND A 191815Z SSMIS
  143. 91 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE CONTINUE TO REVEAL A SYMMETRIC EYEWALL
  144. SURROUNDING A 15 NM EYE AND THE MAINTENANCE OF DEEP CONVECTION OVER
  145. THE PAST 6-HOURS, PROVIDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION.
  146. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 145 KNOTS BASED ON ANALYSIS OF
  147. ALL AVAILABLE SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES.
  148. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT TC WINSTON REMAINS IN A FAVORABLE
  149. ENVIRONMENT WITH STRONG RADIAL OUTFLOW, LOW (10 TO 15 KNOTS)
  150. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND VERY HIGH SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
  151. (SSTS) OVER 31 CELSIUS. TC 11P IS CURRENTLY TRACKING WESTWARD UNDER
  152. THE INFLUENCE OF A DEEP-LAYER SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTH.
  153. BY TAU 36, TC WINSTON WILL BEGIN SLOWING, BECOMING NEARLY QUASI-
  154. STATIONARY BEFORE TURNING MORE SHARPLY TOWARDS THE SOUTH AFTER TAU
  155. 48 IN RESPONSE TO WEAKENING OF THE STEERING RIDGE AND CONCURRENT
  156. DEVELOPMENT OF AN UPPER-LEVEL CUTOFF LOW TO THE SOUTHWEST. TC
  157. WINSTON IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS
  158. AS UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS AND SSTS REMAIN EXTREMELY FAVORABLE,
  159. PEAKING AT 160 KNOTS JUST PRIOR TO MAKING LANDFALL ALONG THE EAST
  160. COAST OF THE NORTHERN FIJI ISLANDS. AFTER TAU 12, TC WINSTON WILL
  161. WEAKEN SOMEWHAT AFTER LANDFALL DUE TO LAND INTERACTION. ONCE OVER
  162. OPEN WATERS BY TAU 36, TC WINSTON WILL MAINTAIN INTENSITY AS A
  163. SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE, BEFORE BEGINNING A SLOW WEAKENING
  164. TREND AFTER TAU 96 AS IT TRACKS OVER COLDER SSTS AND ENCOUNTERS
  165. HIGHER VWS AS IT BECOMES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE TROUGH. DYNAMIC MODEL
  166. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO CONSOLIDATE ON THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC STEERING
  167. PATTERN AND IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 72, LEADING TO HIGH
  168. CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
  169. HEIGHT AT 191800Z IS 40 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 200300Z, 200900Z,
  170. 201500Z AND 202100Z.//
  171. NNNN
複製代碼

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這幾年的颱風和颶風太誇張了  發表於 2016-2-20 06:28
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