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11P.Winston 巔峰橫掃斐濟-FMS評價150KT南半球史上最強

簽到天數: 3856 天

[LV.Master]伴壇終老

alu|2016-2-22 18:56 | 顯示全部樓層
斐濟超強暴風過境 死亡人數已上達17 人
2016-02-22 15:03:44 nownews
         記者黃日暉/綜合報導


太平洋島國斐濟20日晚間遭受南半球有紀錄以來,最強大的暴風溫斯頓(Winston)侵襲,死亡人數已達17人。

根據慈善組織「澳洲關懷」(Care Australia)引述斐濟首都蘇瓦(Suva)官員的說法證實,死亡人數已從先前的6人增加到17人,且數字可能持續增加,目前罹難者的的詳細資料尚待進一步確認。

據當地新聞廣播稍早報導,罹難者多是在遭受重創的西部地區,有7名漁民在海上失聯。時速325公里的強烈暴風氣旋摧毀了許多房屋,甚至一度癱瘓交通,切斷通訊、水電,居民紛紛到避難中心避難。

受災害影響關閉的納迪(Nadi)國際機場,已在關閉2天後重新開啟,遊客已陸續搭乘班機離境。

據悉,這是斐濟首度遭受5級的超級風暴來襲,總理巴依尼馬拉馬(Frank Bainimarama)已宣布進入1個月的緊急狀態。


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[LV.9]以壇為家II

蜜露|2016-2-22 20:16 | 顯示全部樓層
本帖最後由 蜜露 於 2016-2-22 20:39 編輯

斐濟這次多處地方風毀慘重. .
最新有罹難20人左右.

7187748-3x2-700x467.jpg


160221124215-06-fiji-winston-exlarge-169.jpg


Screen-shot-2016-02-21-at-4.08.18-PM.png


Screen-shot-2016-02-21-at-4.09.11-PM.png


o-FIJI-CYCLONE-570.jpg


Winston在斐濟災後的空拍.
Fiji-REUT.jpg


1456119757960.jpg
full_fiji3.jpg

12747329_1106867542679513_359981158325026580_o.jpg



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[LV.9]以壇為家II

蜜露|2016-2-24 17:57 | 顯示全部樓層
本帖最後由 蜜露 於 2016-2-24 18:00 編輯


斐濟死亡罹難人數已經攀升至42人.

過去南太平洋很少罹難超過40人.
所以該國, 溫斯頓除名機會很大

(東半球西太平洋和北印度洋,這數字還算小兒科)
(對於南太平洋這塊區域而言,40人已經很多了)

溫斯頓的巔峰美圖
20160220.0210.himawari-8.ir.11P.WINSTON.160kts.903mb.17.2S.179.9W.100pc.jpg

20160220.0230.himawari-8.ircolor.11P.WINSTON.160kts.903mb.17.2S.179.9W.100pc.jpg

20160220.0300.himawari8.x.wv1km.11PWINSTON.160kts-903mb-172S-1799W.100pc.jpg



bandicam 2016-02-20 12-08-22-175.jpg


或許有人想問,為什麼我每次都要發Cat.4以上巔峰美圖呢?
因為FNMOC保存只有一年時間. 而Real圖 只有三天保存.
RAMMB的向日葵衛星圖也只有一個月保存
北半球還會多增向日葵衛星美圖. 南半球看衛星位置而定.
像今年這幾個.都算邊緣的. 就沒有加入向日葵衛星美圖了


上面的災難圖-空拍照 也是如此

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[LV.9]以壇為家II

Meow|2016-2-25 09:28 | 顯示全部樓層
本帖最後由 Meow 於 2016-2-25 17:03 編輯

紐西蘭宣布降格熱帶低壓。

Tropical Cylone Winston was re-classified as a tropical low at 25/0000UTC (1pm today local time, Thursday) and lies southeast of New Caledonia.

字拼錯了。

實際上應該已經判為轉化,還附有路徑圖。
25_feb_blog_Metservice_track.png
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[LV.9]以壇為家II

Meow|2016-2-26 09:30 | 顯示全部樓層
除了對流很弱以外實在不像是溫帶氣旋,而且美國把之前的強度上調了。

  1. SH, 11, 2016022418,   , BEST,   0, 252S, 1728E,  40,  993, SS,
  2. SH, 11, 2016022500,   , BEST,   0, 256S, 1714E,  40,  993, SS,
  3. SH, 11, 2016022506,   , BEST,   0, 264S, 1695E,  35,  996, SS,
  4. SH, 11, 2016022512,   , BEST,   0, 269S, 1680E,  40,  993, SS,
  5. SH, 11, 2016022518,   , BEST,   0, 274S, 1656E,  40,  993, SS,
  6. SH, 11, 2016022600,   , BEST,   0, 274S, 1631E,  40,  993, SS,
複製代碼
20160226.0040.himawari-8.vis.11P.WINSTON.40kts.993mb.27.4S.163.1E.100pc.jpg
20160226.0040.himawari-8.ircolor.11P.WINSTON.40kts.993mb.27.4S.163.1E.100pc.jpg
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[LV.Master]伴壇終老

t02436|2016-2-26 12:51 | 顯示全部樓層
JTWC重新評級Low
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (REMNANTS OF TC 11P (WINSTON))
PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 27.1S 167.6E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 27.6S
165.3E, APPROXIMATELY 300 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW
CALEDONIA. THIS SYSTEM IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A DEEP LAYER TROUGH AND IS
BEING ASSESSED AS SUBTROPICAL IN NATURE. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD AND ELONGATED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER WITH CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE NORTHWEST. THE
251909Z 37GHZ WINDSAT AND 251946Z 91GHZ SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGES
INDICATE SHALLOW CONVECTION CONSOLIDATED ON THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OF THE LLCC. THE MOST RECENT WINDSAT PASS INDICATES 35 TO 40 KNOT
WINDS WRAPPING AROUND THE LLCC. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SUGGESTS
MODERATE (20 TO 30 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WEAK DIFFLUENCE
ALOFT. 26 DEGREE CELSIUS SSTS ARE NOT CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 35 TO 40 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 993 MB. DUE TO
THE SUBTROPICAL NATURE OF THE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED POOR
ENVIRONMENT, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

abpwsair.jpg

紐西蘭持續判定為副熱帶
WWNZ40 NZKL 260005
GALE WARNING 409
THIS AFFECTS OCEAN AREA: SUBTROPIC
AT 260000UTC
OVER WATERS EAST OF 160E AND SOUTH OF 25S.
LOW 990HPA, FORMER CYCLONE WINSTON, NEAR 27S 163E MOVING
WESTNORTHWEST 10KT.
1. WITHIN 180 NAUTICAL MILES OF LOW IN SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE:
CLOCKWISE 35KT EASING NEXT 6-12 HOURS.
2. WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES OF LOW IN NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE:
CLOCKWISE 35KT DEVELOPING NEXT 6 HOURS.
GALE AREAS MOVING WITH LOW.
THIS WARNING CANCELS AND REPLACES WARNING 403.

20160226.0400.himawari-8.ircolor.11P.WINSTON.40kts.993mb.27.4S.163.1E.100pc.jpg

BoM展望
Potential Cyclones:

Ex-tropical cyclone Winston is currently a vigorous extra-tropical system situated almost 2000km offshore from Queensland in the South Pacific Ocean. The system is expected to take a general westerly movement over the coming days, bringing it into the Bureau of Meteorology's Eastern Region of responsibility late Friday or early Saturday.

Ex-TC Winston will remain under strong wind shear on Friday, severely limiting its potential to redevelop into a tropical cyclone. During Saturday the system will encounter a more favourable environment over the southern Coral Sea (well offshore of the Queensland coast), allowing it a small window of opportunity to regain tropical cyclone structure. On Sunday the shear is forecast to increase again over the system.

The system is forecast to generate large and powerful surf along the southern Queensland coast until at least Sunday.


Likelihood of a tropical cyclone in the Eastern Region on:
Friday:Very Low
Saturday: Low
Sunday:Very Low



NOTES: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of each system being a tropical cyclone in the Region for each day.
Very Low:less than 5%Low:5% to 20%
Moderate:20 to 50%High:Over 50%



20160225.2246.mta.ASCAT.wind.11P.WINSTON.40kts-993mb.274S.1631E.25km.jpg

11P_gefs_latest.png

vis-animated.gif

點評

那個SUBTROPIC是指分區,紐西蘭氣象四大海洋分區有副熱帶、太平洋、四十度、南方。  發表於 2016-2-27 22:26
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[LV.Master]伴壇終老

ben811018|2016-2-27 15:30 | 顯示全部樓層

擷取.PNG

深層對流雖然都消失殆盡
但低層環流中心還是相當明顯呢!
真的很頑強XD~

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[LV.9]以壇為家II

Meow|2016-2-27 22:27 | 顯示全部樓層
2月27日昆士蘭以東「前熱帶氣旋」溫斯頓,或是副熱帶氣旋。

Winston 2016-02-27 0310Z.jpg
https://commons.wikimedia.org/wi ... 016-02-27_0310Z.jpg
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