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krichard2011|2016-2-20 08:48
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JTWC 阿莎力 直接給了160KT 相當頂級的數字 @@
直接打敗南半球風王 Monica 接下來等待FMS會怎麼報
160個人覺得滿高估的...
如果照這種型態值160的話 那西太大概很多颱風都能給 160 165左右了= =
這標準是否太寬鬆了一些 = =
SH, 11, 2016022000, , BEST, 0, 172S, 1799W, 160, 903, ST, 34, NEQ, 80, 120, 90, 90, 1000, 170, 12, 0, 15, P, 0, , 0, 0, WINSTON, D,
SH, 11, 2016022000, , BEST, 0, 172S, 1799W, 160, 903, ST, 50, NEQ, 50, 70, 60, 60, 1000, 170, 12, 0, 15, P, 0, , 0, 0, WINSTON, D,
SH, 11, 2016022000, , BEST, 0, 172S, 1799W, 160, 903, ST, 64, NEQ, 20, 30, 25, 25, 1000, 170, 12, 0, 15, P, 0, , 0, 0, WINSTON, D,
補充 FMS 上調 125 仍沒有奪下南半球風王寶座
HURRICANE WARNING 047 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Feb 200104 UTC.
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE WINSTON CENTRE 917HPA CATEGORY 5 WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.0
SOUTH 179.9 EAST AT 200000 UTC.
POSITION GOOD.
REPEAT POSITION 17.0S 179.9E AT 200000 UTC.
CYCLONE MOVING WEST AT 13 KNOTS.
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 125 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 63 KNOTS WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT,
WITHIN 160 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT,
WITHIN 130 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT,
AND WITHIN 100 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT.
FORECAST POSITION NEAR 17.1S 178.1E AT 201200 UTC
AND NEAR 17.3S 176.7E AT 210000 UTC.
ALL VESSELS WITHIN 300 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE ARE REQUESTED TO SEND REPORTS
EVERY THREE HOURS TO RSMC NADI. VOS REPORTING SHIPS USE NORMAL CHANNELS. OTHER
VESSELS FAX PLUS 679 6720190 OR EMAIL NADITCC AT MET DOT GOV DOT FJ
THIS WARNING CANCELS AND REPLACES WARNING 046.
補充JTWC預測圖與報文
WTPS31 PGTW 200300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (WINSTON) WARNING NR 028//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (WINSTON) WARNING NR 028
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
200000Z --- NEAR 17.2S 179.9W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 160 KT, GUSTS 195 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.2S 179.9W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 17.0S 178.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 17.0S 176.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 17.3S 175.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 17.8S 174.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 19.6S 174.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 23.5S 175.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 27.0S 175.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
200300Z POSITION NEAR 17.1S 179.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (WINSTON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 111 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED HIGH RESOLUTION VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND CURRENT ANIMATED RADAR IMAGERY FROM LABASA, FIJI, DEPICT
A STRONG SYMMETRICAL EYEWALL SURROUNDING A 15 NM EYE, PROVIDING HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
ASSESSED AT 160 KNOTS BASED ON A DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY VALUE OF
T7.5 (155 KNOTS) FROM PGTW AND ANALYSIS OF AVAILABLE OBJECTIVE DATA.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT TC WINSTON REMAINS IN A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH STRONG RADIAL OUTFLOW, LOW (10 TO 15
KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND VERY HIGH SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (SSTS). TC WINSTON CONTINUES TO TRACK WESTWARD ALONG
THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO
THE SOUTH. BY TAU 36, TC WINSTON WILL BEGIN A SLOW TURN TOWARDS THE
SOUTHWEST, ACCELERATING AND TURNING MORE SOUTHWARD AFTER TAU 48 IN
RESPONSE TO DEVELOPMENT OF A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND CUTOFF LOW
TO THE SOUTHWEST. TC WINSTON HAS REACHED ITS PEAK INTENSITY AND WILL
BEGIN TO WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE
TERRAIN FEATURES OF THE FIJI ISLANDS. HOWEVER, THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO RE-INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY BY TAU 36 AFTER IT MOVES INTO OPEN
WATERS WITH VERY HIGH SSTS, WHILE REMAINING IN A RELATIVELY LOW
SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. AFTER TURNING SOUTHWARD AND BY TAU 72, THE SYSTEM
WILL BEGIN WEAKENING AS IT TRACKS OVER COLDER SSTS AND ENCOUNTERS
HIGHER VWS. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEGUN TO DIVERGE SOMEWHAT
AFTER TAU 48 AND THERE IS MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST
TRACK AFTER THIS POINT. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 200000Z
IS 40 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 200900Z, 201500Z, 202100Z AND 210300Z.//
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