TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A25 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Feb 161354 UTC.
TROPICAL CYCLONE WINSTON CENTRE 975HPA CATEGORY 2 WAS LOCATED NEAR
18.0 SOUTH 173.7 WEST AT 161200 UTC. POSITION FAIR BASED ON HR MTSAT
IR IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. CYCLONE MOVING EAST-NORTHEAST AT
ABOUT 12 KTS. MAXIMUM 10 MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE
ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 60 KNOTS.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE
QUADRANT,
WITHIN 150 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT,
WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL MILES IN W
SEMICIRCLE.
DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTENT WITH CONVECTIVE BAND WRAPPING
AROUND LLCC. ORGANIZATION REMAINS GOOD. SST AROUND 30 DEGREES
CELSIUS. SYSTEM LIES UNDER A MODERATE UPPER DIVERGENCE REGION AND IN
LOW TO MODERATE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. OUTFLOW GOOD TO THE EAST. SYSTEM
IS BEING STEERED TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST BY THE WEST-SOUTHWEST DEEP
LAYER MEAN WIND FLOW. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON 1.0 WRAP WITH WHITE
BAND YIELDS DT=4.0, MET AND PT AGREE. FT BASED ON DT. THUS YIELDING
T4.0/4.0/D1.5/24HRS.
FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 170000 UTC 17.5S 172.0W MOV ENE AT 08KT WITH 65KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 171200 UTC 17.3S 170.9W MOV ENE AT 06KT WITH 70KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.
OUTLOOK:
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 180000 UTC 17.2S 170.4W MOV E AT 03KT WITH 75KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 181200 UTC 17.4S 170.7W MOV SE AT 02KT WITH 80KT
CLOSE TO
CENTRE.
THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TROPICAL CYCLONE WINSTON
WILL BE ISSUED AT OR AROUND 162000 UTC.
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A30 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Feb 172234 UTC.
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE WINSTON CENTRE 953HPA CATEGORY 4 WAS LOCATED
NEAR 17.0 SOUTH 170.9 WEST AT 172100 UTC. POSITION FAIR BASED ON HR
GOES EIR AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. CYCLONE MOVING
NORTH-NORTHWEST AT 02 KNOTS. EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 90 KNOTS CLOSE
TO THE CENTRE.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 63 KNOTS WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 50 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE.
OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT,
WITHIN 150 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT,
WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT,
AND WITHIN 100 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT.
DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTENT WITH EYE DISCERNIBLE ON VIS
IMAGERY.ORGANIZATION REMAINS GOOD. SST AROUND 30 DEGREES CELSIUS.
SYSTEM LIES UNDER A MODERATE UPPER DIVERGENCE REGION IN LOW TO
MODERATE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. OUTFLOW GOOD TO THE EAST. DVORAK
ANALYSIS BASED ON B EYE IN CMG SURROUND WITH EYE ADJUSTMENT YEILDS
DT=6.0, MET=5.5, PT=5.5. FT BASED ON MET. THUS YIELDING
T5.5/5.5/D1.5/24HRS.
FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 180900 UTC 17.1S 171.4W SLOW MOV W AT 02KT WITH
95KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 182100 UTC 17.3S 172.5W MOV WSW AT 05KT WITH 100
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 190900 UTC 17.7S 174.0W MOV WSW AT 08KT WITH 110
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 192100 UTC 18.2S 175.7W MOV WSW AT 08KT WITH 105
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON WINSTON WILL BE ISSUED
AROUND 180200 UTC.
HURRICANE WARNING 044 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Feb 190711 UTC.
TROPICAL CYCLONE WINSTON CENTRE 930HPA CATEGORY 5 WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.5 SOUTH
176.1 WEST AT 190600 UTC.
POSITION GOOD.
REPEAT POSITION 17.5S 176.1W at 190600 UTC.
CYCLONE MOVING WEST AT 11 KNOTS. CYCLONE INTENSIFYING.
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 110 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE INCREASING TO 115 KNOTS
BY 191800 UTC.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 63 KNOTS WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE,
EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT,
WITHIN 170 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT,
WITHIN 150 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT,
AND WITHIN 100 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT.
FORECAST POSITION NEAR 17.5S 178.3W AT 191800 UTC
AND NEAR 17.7S 179.7E AT 200600 UTC.
ALL VESSELS WITHIN 300 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE ARE REQUESTED TO SEND REPORTS
EVERY THREE HOURS TO RSMC NADI. VOS REPORTING SHIPS USE NORMAL CHANNELS. OTHER
VESSELS FAX PLUS 679 6720190 OR EMAIL NADITCC AT MET DOT GOV DOT FJ
