krichard2011

Winston 風眼已逐漸進入 FMS 的雷達範圍
底層結構算是相當完整
如強度保持不變的話 將可能成為登陸斐濟史上最強的熱帶氣旋
以路徑來看的話 其中心很有機會命中Vanua Balavu (Fiji)
並且該站已測到海平面氣壓 988.4百帕 與每小時74公里十分鐘持續風
從雲圖來看目測已經正中該島嶼
由於該站為每三小時更新 可以等待以下測站18Z 或 21Z 所放出的實測資料
http://ogimet.com/cgi-bin/gsynre ... y=20&hora=17&min=21

有興趣的亦可以追蹤以下測站之實測即時資料
Fiji - Suva
http://www.bom.gov.au/cosppac/rt ... ation_number=200863
Fiji - Lautoka.
http://www.bom.gov.au/cosppac/rt ... ation_number=200856

補充:
JTWC分析 T7.0
不過認為風眼還不夠渾圓
推測下一報有機會給予 135~140KT 左右的評價

TPPS11 PGTW 191511

A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11P (WINSTON)

B. 19/1453Z

C. 17.16S

D. 178.17W

E. THREE/GOES15

F. T7.0/7.0/D1.5/24HRS  STT: D0.5/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 09A/PBO RAGGED EYE/ANMTN. OW EYE SURROUNDED BY CMG
(ADDED 0.5 EYE ADJUSTMENT) YIELDS A DT OF 7.0. MET AND PT AGREE
WITH DT. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
   19/0928Z  17.27S  176.80W  MMHS


   CHAPPOTIN

Meow

月光看起來不錯

Meow

CI8.0:lol

2016FEB19 153000  8.0  883.7 170.0  8.0 8.3 8.3  NO LIMIT  OFF  OFF   11.18 -80.65  EYE     18 IR  77.4  -17.35  178.03  COMBO   HIM-8 50.5

krichard2011

風眼清空 CDO 對流爆發 CDG 甚至已經成環
推測可能已經有猛爆性增強(RI)的情形
這強度發展加上這路徑 斐濟真的要繃緊神經了
ADT 的T值甚至分析出 T7.9 的驚人數字
可見上次 ADT 把頂端修改為T8.5是必要的 XD

t02436

FMS 06Z評價110節，強度達到五級強烈熱帶氣旋，未來將以高強度直襲斐濟

HURRICANE WARNING 044 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Feb 190711 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE WINSTON CENTRE 930HPA CATEGORY 5 WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.5 SOUTH
176.1 WEST AT 190600 UTC.
POSITION GOOD.
REPEAT POSITION 17.5S 176.1W at 190600 UTC.
CYCLONE MOVING WEST AT 11 KNOTS. CYCLONE INTENSIFYING.
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 110 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE INCREASING TO 115 KNOTS
BY 191800 UTC.

EXPECT WINDS OVER 63 KNOTS WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE,
EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT,            
                                                                                
                  
                           WITHIN 170 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT,            
                                                                                
           
                           WITHIN 150 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT,            
                                                        
                       AND WITHIN 100 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT.
  

FORECAST POSITION NEAR 17.5S 178.3W AT 191800 UTC
              AND NEAR 17.7S 179.7E AT 200600 UTC.

ALL VESSELS WITHIN 300 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE ARE REQUESTED TO SEND REPORTS
EVERY THREE HOURS TO RSMC NADI. VOS REPORTING SHIPS USE NORMAL CHANNELS. OTHER
VESSELS FAX PLUS 679 6720190 OR EMAIL NADITCC AT MET DOT GOV DOT FJ

THIS WARNING CANCELS AND REPLACES WARNING 043.

JTWC預測巔峰將達到135節

蜜露

底層來看是個環狀結構, 其實環狀底層已經有一天了吧. 只是高層一直都在調整.

週遭的環境都很好. 包含OHC , 風切低.













海溫都有25~30左右

Meow

超越Ula，達到四級強烈熱帶氣旋上限，預測巔峰接近斐濟。

1. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A36 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
   
2. Feb 190113 UTC.
   
3. 
   
4. SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE WINSTON CENTRE 937HPA CATEGORY 4 WAS LOCATED
   
5. NEAR 17.3S 174.7W AT 190000 UTC.  POSITION FAIR BASED ON HR GOES EIR
   
6. AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS.  CYCLONE MOVING WEST AT ABOUT 09
   
7. KNOTS.  MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT
   
8. ABOUT 105 KNOTS.  
   
9. 
   
10. 
    
11. EXPECT WINDS ABOVE 63 KNOTS WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE.
    
12. EXPECT WINDS ABOVE 47 KNOTS WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE.
    
13. ABOVE 33 KNOTS WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
    
14.            AND WITHIN 150 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
    
15.            AND WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
    
16.            AND WITHIN 100 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT.
    
17. 
    
18. WELL DEFINED EYE VISIBLE ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. DEEP CONVECTION
    
19. REMAINS PERSISTENT. ORGANIZATION REMAINS GOOD. SST AROUND 30 DEGREES
    
20. CELSIUS. SYSTEM LIES IN LOW SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. OUTFLOW GOOD TO THE
    
21. SOUTH. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON OW EYE IN B SURROUND WITH W RING
    
22. DT=6.0, MET AND PT AGREE, FT BASED ON MET. THUS YIELDING
    
23. T6.0/6.0/D0.5/24HRS.
    
24. 
    
25. 
    
26. FORECASTS :
    
27. AT 12 HRS VALID AT 191200 UTC 17.8S 176.3W MOV WSW AT 08KT WITH 105
    
28. KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
    
29. AT 24 HRS VALID AT 200000 UTC 18.1S 178.1W MOV WSW AT 09KT WITH 105
    
30. KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
    
31. 
    
32. OUTLOOK :
    
33. AT 36 HRS VALID AT 201200 UTC 18.3S 179.9W MOV W AT 09KT WITH 105 KT
    
34. CLOSE TO CENTRE
    
35. AT 48 HRS VALID AT 210000 UTC 18.5S 178.6W MOV W AT 07KT WITH 105 KT
    
36. CLOSE TO CENTRE
    
37. 
    
38. THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE
    
39. WINSTON WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 190800 UTC.

複製代碼

t02436

FMS 18Z評價90節，重回四級強烈熱帶氣旋，巔峰更上望澳式C5

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A30 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Feb 172234 UTC.

SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE WINSTON CENTRE 953HPA CATEGORY 4 WAS LOCATED
NEAR 17.0 SOUTH 170.9 WEST AT 172100 UTC. POSITION FAIR BASED ON HR
GOES EIR AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. CYCLONE MOVING
NORTH-NORTHWEST AT 02 KNOTS. EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 90 KNOTS CLOSE
TO THE CENTRE.

EXPECT WINDS OVER 63 KNOTS WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 50 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE.
             OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT,
                           WITHIN 150 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT,
                           WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT,
                       AND WITHIN 100 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT.

DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTENT WITH EYE DISCERNIBLE ON VIS
IMAGERY.ORGANIZATION REMAINS GOOD. SST AROUND 30 DEGREES CELSIUS.
SYSTEM LIES UNDER A MODERATE UPPER DIVERGENCE REGION IN LOW TO
MODERATE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. OUTFLOW GOOD TO THE EAST. DVORAK
ANALYSIS BASED ON B EYE IN CMG SURROUND WITH EYE ADJUSTMENT YEILDS
DT=6.0, MET=5.5, PT=5.5. FT BASED ON MET. THUS YIELDING
T5.5/5.5/D1.5/24HRS.


FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 180900 UTC 17.1S 171.4W SLOW MOV W AT 02KT WITH
95KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 182100 UTC 17.3S 172.5W MOV WSW AT 05KT WITH 100
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 190900 UTC 17.7S 174.0W MOV WSW AT 08KT WITH 110
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 192100 UTC 18.2S 175.7W MOV WSW AT 08KT WITH 105
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON WINSTON WILL BE ISSUED
AROUND 180200 UTC.

底層大致弄好了 風眼準備開出