0908morakot

  熱帶風暴  
編號：11 L
名稱：Julia


  基本資料  
擾動編號日期：2016 年 09 月 08 日 21 時
命名日期　　：2016 年 09 月 14 日 11 時
撤編日期　　：2016 年 09 月 23 日 01 時
登陸地點　　：無

  巔峰時期資料  
近中心最強風速：35  kt ( TS )
海平面最低氣壓：1007 百帕

  過去路徑圖  


  討論帖圖片  
93L.INVEST.25kts.1009mb.17N.57W


NHC:10%

2. A concentrated area of showers and thunderstorms associated with a
broad area of low pressure has developed about 350 miles east of
the Leeward Islands. This activity is expected to move toward the
west-northwest, and additional development, if any, will be slow
to occur during the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

以上資料來自：NHC、颱風論壇整理製作

t02436

03Z直接在佛羅里達州上升格11L並命名Julia。

000
WTNT41 KNHC 140226
TCDAT1

TROPICAL STORM JULIA DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL112016
1100 PM EDT TUE SEP 13 2016

The area of low pressure that has been moving along the Florida
east coast has managed to maintain persistent deep convection,
accompanied by a small area of tropical-storm-force winds, close to
the area of lowest pressure for well over 12 hours now. And while
the winds to the west and south of the center are not more than
about 10 kt, they have defined a closed center for much of the
afternoon and evening. Given this persistent organization, the
system is classifiable as a tropical cyclone and advisories are
being initiated on Tropical Storm Julia, the tenth named storm of
the 2016 Atlantic hurricane season.

The motion of the system has been north-northwestward today, with
the convective asymmetry likely contributing to a track to the right
of much of the objective track guidance.  That trend is forecast to
continue for the next day or so, and the official forecast lies to
the right of the model consensus - leaning in the direction of the
HWRF.  With the center expected to remain over land, and westerly
shear of about 20 kt expected over the next day or so, little change
in strength is expected until the system pushes farther inland and
begins to weaken.  Nevertheless, a small area of
tropical-storm-force winds should continue to push northward along
the coast within the warning area tonight and early Wednesday.

The slow forward speed of Julia is expected to result in locally
heavy rainfall of 3 to 6 inches with isolated maximum amounts near
10 inches along and east of where the center moves. These rains
could result in flash flooding. Also, Doppler weather radar data
during the past few hours indicate a significant improvement in the
curved banding features to the north and east of the center. As a
result, an isolated tornado or two will be possible overnight and on
Wednesday when some of the stronger rainbands move onshore across
northeastern Florida and southeastern Georgia.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  14/0300Z 30.3N  81.6W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
12H  14/1200Z 31.2N  81.9W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
24H  15/0000Z 31.8N  82.2W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
36H  15/1200Z 32.1N  82.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
48H  16/0000Z 32.3N  82.3W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H  17/0000Z...DISSIPATED INLAND

$$
Forecaster Stewart/Franklin

周子堯@FB

中心明顯裸露，型態不佳，即將減弱