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97W Low 與99W互動密切

簽到天數: 2088 天

[LV.Master]伴壇終老

2017-8-23 10:08 | 顯示全部樓層
本帖最後由 周子堯@FB 於 2017-9-16 14:39 編輯

  基本資料  
編號                : 97 W
擾動編號日期:2017 08 23 10
撤編日期  :2017 08 26 10
97W.INVEST.15kts-NAmb-7.0N-166.0E

20170822.2350.himawari8.x.vis2km.97WINVEST.15kts-NAmb-70N-1660E.100pc.jpg

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參與人數 1水氣能量 +15 收起 理由
king111807 + 15

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[LV.Master]伴壇終老

周子堯@FB|2017-8-24 10:47 | 顯示全部樓層
JTWC評級Low
  (2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
10.1N 168.3E, APPROXIMATELY 1025 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB,
GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS LOW LEVEL
BANDING WRAPPING INTO A BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH FLARING
CONVECTION. A 232252 METOP-A MHS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS
FORMATIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A SMALL AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION. THE
DISTURBANCE IS LOCATED IN A MODERATELY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH
GOOD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW, LOW TO MODERATE (15-20 KTS) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR, AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (30-31 C). MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1010 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS LOW.
abpwsair.jpg

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[LV.Master]伴壇終老

周子堯@FB|2017-8-25 08:14 | 顯示全部樓層
JTWC 23Z評級Medium
  (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 10.9N 165.0E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.8N 153.3E, APPROXIMATELY
605 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL BANDING WRAPPING
INTO AN ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH CONVECTION PERSISTING
NEAR THE CENTER. THE DISTURBANCE IS LOCATED IN A MODERATELY
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW, LOW TO MODERATE
(15-20 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
(30-31 CELSIUS). GLOBAL MODELS ARE DIVIDED, NAVGEM SHOWING A
NORTHWARD TRACK AND STRONG INTENSIFICATION, UKMET SHOWING A
NORTHWESTWARD TRACK AND LESS INTENSIFICATION, AND GFS AND ECMWF NOT
SHOWING SIGNIFICANT CONSOLIDATION OR INTENSIFICATION. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1010 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
abpwsair.jpg

點評

以數值預報來說也是圖上這個較高緯的位置發展起來,若是這個位置已慢慢進入秋季的情況下,高壓應該壓不了太久  發表於 2017-8-25 20:46
目前大J現在的定位: 還要在左下方一點,參考一下了 https://metoc.ndbc.noaa.gov/ProductFeeds-portlet/img/jtwc/products/abpwsair.jpg  詳情 回復 發表於 2017-8-25 17:24
怪怪的,圖和文字的緯度有一段落差,反正應該是無害颱,隨便吧  發表於 2017-8-25 16:49
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u777771|2017-8-25 15:12 | 顯示全部樓層
持續觀察(97W)未來的動向

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字數少於20字請用點評功能,提醒一次   發表於 2017-8-26 15:10
假如這97W依舊被副高壓著情況下,朝西行進。超高OHC跟跨赤道水氣不知道來不來得及結合?今年的C5頂級風王還沒出現半個。  發表於 2017-8-25 23:36
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u777771|2017-8-25 17:24 | 顯示全部樓層

目前大J現在的定位: 還要在左下方一點,參考一下了

https://metoc.ndbc.noaa.gov/Prod ... oducts/abpwsair.jpg
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[LV.4]偶爾看看III

Ryan|2017-8-26 10:03 | 顯示全部樓層
可能會合起來

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字數少於20字請用點評功能,提醒一次   發表於 2017-8-26 15:09
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[LV.Master]伴壇終老

alu|2017-8-26 10:55 | 顯示全部樓層
97w是消散了,還是和99w合併了,JTWC已經沒有97w的編號
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