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霧峰追風者|2017-10-12 04:50
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顯示全部樓層
JTWC 20Z發佈了TCFA,將與90W進一步整合。
WTPN21 PGTW 112000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
170 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 16.3N 128.7E TO 18.7N 121.3E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 17 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 111800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 16.9N 127.9E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 16.9N
129.2E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 127.9E, APPROXIMATELY 423NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD AREA OF RELATIVELY DISORGANIZED
CONVECTION WITH SUBSTANTIAL MID-LEVEL TURNING. A 111144Z OSCAT IMAGE
SHOWS A SLIGHTLY ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
ASSOCIATED WITH INVEST AREA 90W, AND POSITIONED APPROXIMATELY 170NM
TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OF INVEST 98W WITH A DISTINCT TROUGH FEATURE
PROTRUDING TO THE EAST. DESPITE THE ABSENCE OF A DEFINED LLCC AT THE
SURFACE, 850MB VORTICITY APPEARS TO BE WELL DEVELOPED AND
INCREASING. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A POINT SOURCE JUST TO
THE EAST OF THE SYSTEM. THIS COUPLED WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
AND SSTS NEAR 29 CELSIUS INDICATE A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
CYCLOGENESIS. AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE SYSTEM CONTINUING
ON ITS WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK WITH GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION AS THE
SYSTEM INTERACTS AND MERGES WITH INVEST AREA 90W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 17 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
122000Z.//
NNNN 
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