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本帖最後由 霧峰追風者 於 2018-3-7 04:28 編輯
FMS 命名Hola,巔峰上望澳式C2。
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A5 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Mar 061404 UTC.
TROPICAL CYCLONE HOLA CENTRE 994HPA CATEGORY 1 WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.8S
169.0E AT 061200 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON HR HIMAWARI-8 EIR AND
PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT 08
KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT
ABOUT 35 KNOTS.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL MILES IN EAST
SEMICIRCLE AND WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES IN WEST SEMICIRCLE.
DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTENT WITH BANDS TRYING TO WRAP AROUND
LLCC. OVERALL ORGANISATION HAS IMPROVED SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE PAST 24
HOURS. CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDS UP TO 300HPA. SYSTEM LIES UNDER
AN UPPER RIDGE WITH STRONG UPPER DIVERGENCE IN A MODERATE SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT. OUTFLOW GOOD TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. SST AROUND 29
DEGREES CELCIUS. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON 0.6 WRAP YIELDS DT=3.0. PT
AND MET AGREE. THUS YIELDING T3.0/3.0/D1.0/24HRS.
GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND MOVE IT WEST-SOUTHWEST
WITH FURTHER INTENSIFICATION.
FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 070000 UTC 16.3S 167.8E MOV WSW AT 06 KT WITH 40
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 071200 UTC 16.7S 166.8E MOV WSW AT 06 KT WITH 45
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 080000 UTC 17.2S 166.3E MOV SW AT 05 KT WITH 50 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 081200 UTC 17.9S 166.6E MOV S AT 05 KT WITH 50 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TROPICAL CYCLONE HOLA WILL
BE ISSUED AROUND 062000 UTC.
JTWC 12首報，上望三級颶風。WTPS32 PGTW 061500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/051352ZMAR2018//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (TWELVE) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
061200Z --- NEAR 15.9S 168.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.9S 168.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 16.5S 167.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 16.9S 166.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 17.2S 165.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 18.0S 165.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 20.5S 168.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 27.0S 172.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 32.9S 175.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
255 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
061500Z POSITION NEAR 16.1S 168.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 12P (TWELVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 113 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED EIR SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS SLOWLY CONSOLIDATED AS THE CONVECTION REORIENTED
AND DEEPENED CLOSER TO THE LLC. THE INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY
ARE EXTRAPOLATED FROM THE 061036Z PARTIAL ASCAT PASS COVERING THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE LLC THAT INCLUDES 35-KNOT WIND BARBS ALONG THE
NORTHEAST QUADRANT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY THE
DVORAK ESTIMATE OF T2.0 FROM PGTW. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE
SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA OF MODERATE (15-20 KNOT) VWS THAT IS MITIGATED
BY ITS STORM MOTION THAT IS IN-PHASE WITH THE UPPER LEVEL WIND FLOW.
A ROBUST WESTERLY OUTFLOW, EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY,
IS PROVIDING VENTILATION TO THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION. ADDITIONALLY,
ALONG-TRACK SSTS ARE VERY CONDUCIVE AT 30C. THESE OVERALL POSITIVE
DYNAMICS ARE, HOWEVER, TEMPORARILY TEMPERED BY SUBSIDENCE ALONG THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY CAUSED BY A RECEDING MID-LATITUDE LOW. TC 12P IS
TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE STR TO THE SOUTHEAST.
AFTER TAU 36, IT IS EXPECTED TO ROUND THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE STR AND
TRACK SOUTH TO SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD NEW ZEALAND. THE
AFOREMENTIONED FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ALLOWING THE SYSTEM
TO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY, PEAKING AT 100 KNOTS NEAR TAU 72 AFTER IT
MAKES THE RECURVE POLEWARD, ENHANCED BY INCREASED POLEWARD OUTFLOW.
AFTERWARD, INCREASING VWS AND COOLING SSTS WILL GRADUALLY ERODE THE
SYSTEM. BY TAU 120, TC 12P WILL BE REDUCED TO 55 KNOTS WITH AN
EXPANDING WIND FIELD AS IT BEGINS EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION. THE
AVAILABLE NUMERIC GUIDANCE IS IN OVERALL AGREEMENT WITH THE RECURVING
TRACK WITH NOTABLE DIFFERENCES IN TRACK SPEED. THIS, IN ADDITION TO
THE FORMATIVE NATURE OF THE SYSTEM LEND LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL
JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 061200Z IS 8
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 062100Z, 070300Z, 070900Z AND 071500Z.
2. THIS CANCELS AND SUPERSEDES REF A (WTPS21 PGTW 051400).//
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