IDW27600
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0059 UTC 22/03/2018
Name: Severe Tropical Cyclone Marcus
Identifier: 20U
Data At: 0000 UTC
Latitude: 15.8S
Longitude: 107.4E
Location Accuracy: within 15 nm [30 km]
Movement Towards: west southwest [245 deg]
Speed of Movement: 12 knots [22 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 125 knots [230 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 175 knots [325 km/h]
Central Pressure: 916 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 120 nm [220 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 150 nm [280 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 130 nm [240 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 110 nm [205 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 60 nm [110 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 60 nm [110 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 60 nm [110 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 60 nm [110 km]
Radius of 64-knot winds: 40 nm [75 km]
Radius of Maximum Winds: 15 nm [30 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: T6.5/7.0/D1.0/24HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1004 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 240 nm [445 km]
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+06: 22/0600: 16.5S 106.6E: 025 [050]: 125 [230]: 916
+12: 22/1200: 17.4S 106.2E: 040 [070]: 115 [215]: 928
+18: 22/1800: 18.5S 105.9E: 050 [095]: 105 [195]: 937
+24: 23/0000: 19.7S 105.9E: 065 [120]: 095 [175]: 947
+36: 23/1200: 22.2S 105.9E: 085 [155]: 075 [140]: 965
+48: 24/0000: 24.6S 106.8E: 105 [190]: 060 [110]: 977
+60: 24/1200: 26.5S 107.6E: 120 [225]: 040 [075]: 990
+72: 25/0000: 27.9S 108.0E: 140 [265]: 035 [065]: 991
+96: 26/0000: 32.0S 113.4E: 185 [345]: 030 [055]: 997
+120: 27/0000: : : :
REMARKS:
Marcus was located using EIR and microwave imagery. Marcus has showed signs of
intensification.
Dvorak: Eye pattern: Surrounding grey shade is W which gives an E no. of 6.0. E
adj is +1.0 based on an WMG eye surrounded by W. Time averaged DT is 6.5 as over
the last 3 hours the eye has more commonly been OW. MET/PAT is 7.0 based on D
trend and CI is 7.0. CIMMS and NESDIS ADT are 7.1 and 7.2 respectively.
Marcus has moved towards the west southwest over the last few hours as the
influence of the mid-level ridge to the south starts to weaken. NWP is in strong
agreement that Marcus will continue to turn towards the southwest during
Thursday and towards the south during Friday.
CIMSS Vertical wind shear is 10 knots from the ENE. The system is still within
an area of low shear however the shear will start to increase steadily as the
system tracks in a more southward direction from later on Thursday. There is
good upper divergence, particularly south of the system with dual outflow
channels [poleward and equatorward].
Ocean Heat Content [OHC] is favourable and SSTs are around 26-28C along the
forecast
track for the next 24 hours. Once Marcus tracks south of 20S, OHC is less
favourable and SSTs decrease below 26/27C.
Marcus is currently near its peak intensity and is expected to start weakening
later on Thursday as an approaching upper level trough helps steer the system
towards the southwest and then towards the south on Friday with increasing
shear.
Decreasing SSTs and further increasing wind shear are expected to cause Marcus
to weaken below tropical cyclone intensity late Saturday.
Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 22/0730 UTC by Perth TCWC.
氣壓估計914百帕，綜合風速已判定是2006年以來本區域最強，但也要開始減弱了。
IDW27600
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0655 UTC 22/03/2018
Name: Severe Tropical Cyclone Marcus
Identifier: 20U
Data At: 0600 UTC
Latitude: 16.6S
Longitude: 106.6E
Location Accuracy: within 15 nm [30 km]
Movement Towards: southwest [224 deg]
Speed of Movement: 11 knots [21 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 125 knots [230 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 175 knots [325 km/h]
Central Pressure: 914 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 150 nm [280 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 150 nm [280 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 130 nm [240 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 130 nm [240 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 70 nm [130 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 70 nm [130 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 70 nm [130 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 70 nm [130 km]
Radius of 64-knot winds: 40 nm [75 km]
Radius of Maximum Winds: 15 nm [30 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: T6.5/7.0/D1.0/24HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1002 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 180 nm [335 km]
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+06: 22/1200: 17.5S 106.1E: 025 [050]: 115 [215]: 928
+12: 22/1800: 18.6S 105.9E: 040 [070]: 105 [195]: 937
+18: 23/0000: 19.8S 105.8E: 050 [095]: 095 [175]: 947
+24: 23/0600: 21.1S 105.7E: 065 [120]: 085 [155]: 956
+36: 23/1800: 23.5S 106.3E: 085 [155]: 065 [120]: 973
+48: 24/0600: 25.8S 107.2E: 105 [190]: 050 [095]: 984
+60: 24/1800: 27.3S 107.7E: 120 [225]: 035 [065]: 991
+72: 25/0600: 28.8S 108.5E: 140 [265]: 030 [055]: 995
+96: 26/0600: 34.0S 116.2E: 185 [345]: 030 [055]: 997
+120: 27/0600: : : :
REMARKS:
Marcus was located using animated vis, EIR and microwave imagery. Marcus has
remained at a steady intensity however is beginning to show signs of weakening
with a decrease in deep convection around the centre.
Dvorak: Eye pattern: Surrounding grey shade is W which gives an E no. of 6.0. E
adj is +0.5 based on an OW eye surrounded by W. Time averaged DT is 6.5 over the
last 3 hours, MET/PAT also 6.5 based on D- 24hr trend. CI has been held at 7.0
while initial weakening trend. CIMMS and NESDIS ADT are both 7.0.
Marcus has moved towards the southwest over the last few hours as the influence
of the mid-level ridge to the south starts to weaken. NWP is in strong agreement
that Marcus will continue towards the southwest for the remainder of Thursday
and then towards the south during Friday as an upper level trough approaches.
CIMSS Vertical wind shear is 9 knots from the ENE. The system is still within an
area of low shear however the shear will start to increase steadily as the
system tracks in a more southward direction from later on Thursday. There is
good upper divergence, particularly south of the system with dual outflow
channels [poleward and equatorward].
Ocean Heat Content [OHC] is favourable and SSTs are around 26-28C along the
forecast
track in the short term. Once Marcus tracks south of 20S, OHC is less favourable
and SSTs decrease below 26/27C.
Marcus is expected to weaken below tropical cyclone intensity late Saturday.
Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 22/1330 UTC by Perth TCWC.
