霧峰追風者

  基本資料  
編號　　　　：99 P
擾動編號日期：2019 年 01 月 01 日 09 時
撤編日期　　：2019 年 01 月 02 日 15 時
99P.INVEST.15kts-1010mb-9.0S-171.0E

霧峰追風者

FMS 編號熱帶擾動05F。

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 05F CENTRE 999HPA WAS ANALYSED NEAR 9.8S 171.1E
AT 312100 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON HIMAWARI-8 VIS IMAGERY AND
PERIPEHRAL SURFACE REPORTS. TD04F IS MOVING EAST AT ABOUT 05 KNOTS.

DEEP CONVECTION LIES TO THE NORTH OF THE SUPPOSED LLCC AND REMAINS
PERSISTENT WITH GOOD ORGANISATION. SYSTEM LIES IN A DIFFLUENT REGION
WITH GOOD OUTFLOW TO THE EAST IN A LOW-MODERATE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT.
SST IS AROUND 29 DEGREES CELCIUS.

GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND GRADUALLY MOVE IT
EASTWARDS AND THEN IN A SOUTHEAST DIRECTION WITH SOME
INTENSIFICATION.

POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE
NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS LOW TO MODERATE.

霧峰追風者

JTWC 06Z評級Low

(3) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99P) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 9.5S
170.5E, APPROXIMATELY 513 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF PORT VILLA, VANAUTU.
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 010445Z SSMIS F-16
91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS FLARING CONVECTION WITH LIMITED
CIRCULATION. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS INVEST 99P IS LOCATED WITHIN
FAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-20 KTS) AND GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW.
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN WARM (28-30 CELSIUS) AND CONDUCIVE
FOR FUTURE DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL MODELS GENERALLY AGREE WITH A
SOUTHEASTERN TRAJECTORY WITH A POSSIBLE MERGER WITH INVEST 98P IN 24-
48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

霧峰追風者

JTWC 06Z取消評級。

(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 18.7S 175.6E, HAS DISSIPATED AND IS NO LONGER SUSPECT FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.