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jrchang5|2019-1-20 10:15
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本帖最後由 jrchang5 於 2019-1-20 10:19 編輯
JTWC於01200300Z發報升格為Tropical Cyclone 10S。
WTXS31 PGTW 200300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (TEN) WARNING NR 001//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/
190351ZJAN2019//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (TEN) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
200000Z --- NEAR 23.7S 38.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 010 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 23.7S 38.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 22.3S 38.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 20.3S 38.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 18.9S 37.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 17.9S 37.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 16.8S 35.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
200300Z POSITION NEAR 23.3S 38.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 10S (TEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 134 NM
SOUTHWEST OF EUROPA ISLAND, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 05 KNOTS (KTS)
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY REVEALS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) ON
THE NORTH SIDE OF DEEP CONVECTION. THERE IS LIMITED CONVECTION AND
SHALLOW BANDING EQUATORWARD OF THE LLC. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE BASED ON BANDING FEATURES IN A 192301Z
AMSR2 36 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KTS IS
HEDGED ABOVE A PGTW DVORAK CURRENT ESTIMATE OF T2.0 (30 KTS) BASED
ON A PARTIAL 191932Z METOP-A ASCAT IMAGE WHICH SHOWED A LARGE REGION
OF 35-40 KT WINDS TO THE WEST OF THE INITIAL POSITION. THE
ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE WITH MODERATE (10-20 KT) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS), EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW, AND WARM (28-29 CELSIUS)
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE. FOR THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST, TC 10S
WILL TRACK ALONG THE EASTERN TO NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR). THROUGH TAU 24, A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH TO
THE SOUTH WILL SIMULTANEOUSLY WEAKEN THE STR AND ENHANCE THE
POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL, LIMITING THE FORWARD SPEED AND ALLOWING
FOR INTENSIFICATION. AFTER TAU 24, THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH WILL HAVE
MOVED EASTWARD ENOUGH TO NO LONGER ENHANCE THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW
CHANNEL. AS A RESULT, FURTHER INTENSIFICATION WILL BE HAMPERED AND
TC 10S SHOULD ACCELERATE SLIGHTLY AS IT ROUNDS THE STR ON A
NORTHWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD TRACK. AROUND TAU 48, TC 10S IS EXPECTED
TO MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE MOZAMBIQUE COAST AND DISSIPATE BY TAU 72
AS IT MOVES INLAND. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT
THROUGH TAU 36 BUT THE SPREAD INCREASES SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER TAU 36.
THIS SPREAD MAY BE DUE TO A COMBINATION OF THE STR WEAKENING, AN
APPROACHING CYCLONIC CIRCULATION FROM THE NORTHEAST, AND DIFFICULTY
TRACKING THE CIRCULATION AS TC 10S WEAKENS. BASED ON THE INCREASED
UNCERTAINTY BEYOND TAU 36, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK
FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 200000Z IS 15 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 200900Z, 201500Z, 202100Z AND 210300Z. THIS
CANCELS AND SUPERSEDES REF A (WTXS21 PGTW 190400).//
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