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霧峰追風者|2019-1-24 06:09
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本帖最後由 霧峰追風者 於 2019-1-24 06:14 編輯
JTWC 18Z率先升格熱帶氣旋11S,巔峰暫時上望85kts。
WTXS31 PGTW 232100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (ELEVEN) WARNING NR 001//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (ELEVEN) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
231800Z --- NEAR 16.5S 122.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 220 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.5S 122.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 17.1S 120.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 17.4S 118.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 17.5S 118.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 17.7S 117.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 18.1S 114.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 18.4S 111.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 18.8S 108.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
232100Z POSITION NEAR 16.7S 121.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 11S (ELEVEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 84 NM
NORTH OF BROOME, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS
(KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS CONSOLIDATED, THERE IS DEEP CONVECTION
OVER THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), AND A SIGNIFICANT RAIN
BAND EXTENDS ABOUT 150 NM TO THE WEST OF THE LLCC. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE USING A 231833Z SSMI 85 GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE WHICH SHOWS RAIN BANDS WRAPPING IN FROM THE NORTH
AND SOUTH. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KTS IS CONSISTENT WITH MULTI-
AGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T2.5 (35 KTS). THE
ENVIRONMENT IS VERY FAVORABLE WITH GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW,
EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW, LOW (5-10 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS),
AND WARM (30-31 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE. TC 11S IS TRACKING
ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR), ANCHORED
OVER SOUTHERN AUSTRALIA. THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST, THE STR WILL BUILD
AND TC 11S WILL CONTINUE TRACKING WESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY. THE VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO ALLOW TC
11S TO INTENSIFY FAIRLY RAPIDLY TO 60 KTS BY TAU 36 AND MORE SLOWLY
AFTERWARD AS THE ENVIRONMENT BECOMES LESS FAVORABLE. THE INTENSITY
FORECAST IS ON THE HIGH END OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE AS SEVERAL
MODELS PREDICT THE CYCLONE INTENSITY WILL TAPER OFF AROUND TAU 48-
72. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NAVGEM, DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE HAS GOOD
CROSS-TRACK AGREEMENT WITH THE JTWC FORECAST, HOWEVER, ALONG-TRACK
SPREAD IS FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT DUE TO DIFFERENCES IN THE STR STRENGTH
AMONG THE MODELS. THE SOUTHERN OUTLIER, NAVGEM, DEVELOPS A MID-
LATITUDE TROUGH THAT CREATES A BREAK IN THE STR THAT ALLOWS THE TC
TO TURN SHARPLY SOUTHWARD, TOWARDS LEARMONTH. BASED ON THE NAVGEM
OUTLIER AND HIGH ALONG-TRACK SPREAD AMONG THE OTHER MODELS, THERE IS
LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 231800Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 240300Z, 240900Z,
241500Z AND 242100Z.//
NNNN 
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