TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A6 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Feb 091936 UTC.
EX-TROPICAL CYCLONE NEIL, TROPICAL DEPRESSION TD07F CENTRE 996HPA WAS LOCATED
NEAR 20.6S 174.9W AT 091800 UTC. POSITION FAIR BASED ON HIMAWARI-8 AND GOES EIR
AND VIS IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. TD07F MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AT
ABOUT 15 KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT
ABOUT 30 KNOTS.
LLCC EXPOSED WITH DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE EAST. CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
EXTENDS UPTO 500 HPA. SYSTEM LIES IN A HIGH SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. SST AROUND 27
DEGREES CELCIUS. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON SHEAR PATTERN WITH LLCC LESS THAN 75
NAUTICAL MILES FROM STRONG TEMPERATURE GRADIENT YIELDS DT=2.0. MET AND PT AGREE.
FT BASED ON DT. THUS, YIELDING T2.0/2.5/S0.0/24HRS.
GLOBAL MODEL MOVE THE SYSTEM SOUTHEAST WITH GRADUAL WEAKENING.
THE POTENTIAL FOR TD07F TO RE-DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IS LOW.
FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 100600 UTC 23.8S 173.8W MOV SSE AT 17 KT WITH 30 KT CLOSE TO
CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 101800 UTC 27.3S 172.1W MOV SSE AT 18 KT WITH 30 KT CLOSE TO
CENTRE
THIS WILL BE THE LAST TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON EX-TC NEIL.
WTPS31 PGTW 100900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P (NEIL) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P (NEIL) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
100600Z --- NEAR 24.0S 173.9W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 160 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 24.0S 173.9W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 28.5S 171.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
100900Z POSITION NEAR 25.1S 173.4W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P (NEIL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 369 NM
SOUTHWEST OF NIUE, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 15 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON
WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR
SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 100600Z
IS 12 FEET.
//
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