霧峰追風者

  四級強烈熱帶氣旋  
編號：16 P ( 11 F )
名稱：Pola

  基本資料  
擾動編號日期：2019 年 02 月 23 日 13 時
升格熱低日期：2019 年 02 月 25 日 02 時
JTWC升格日期:2019 年 02 月 26 日 08 時
命名日期　　：2019 年 02 月 26 日 20 時
　　　　　　　2019 年 03 月 01 日 02 時 - NZKL接續發報
撤編日期　　：2019 年 03 月 03 日 13 時
登陸地點　　：無

  巔峰時期資料  
近中心最強風速
斐濟氣象局 (FMS)：90 kt ( Cat.4 )
紐西蘭氣象局 (NZKL)：85 kt ( Cat.3 )
聯合颱風警報中心(JTWC)：95 kt ( Cat.2 )
海平面最低氣壓 ：950 百帕

  過去路徑圖  

  擾動編號資料  
95P.INVEST.20kts-1002mb-10.9S-175.0W


以上資料來自：FMS、NZKL、JTWC、颱風論壇整理製作

霧峰追風者

FMS 編號熱帶擾動11F。

Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Feb 230923 UTC.

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 11F CENTRE [1002HPA] WAS ANALYSED NEAR 10.5S
175.2W AT 230600 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON HIMAWARI-8 IR IMAGERY
AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE OBSERVATION. TD11F IS SLOW MOVING.

SCATTERED CONVECTION LIES TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE SUPPOSED LLCC WITH
POOR ORGANISATION. SYSTEM LIES TO THE EAST OF AN UPPER OUTFLOW
CENTRE IN DIFFLUENT FLOW AND LOW SHEAR. CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDS
UP TO 700HPA. SST IS AROUND 30 DEGREES CELCIUS.

GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND ARE SLOWLY DEVELOPING IT
WHILE MOVING IT SOUTHWARDS.

THE POTENTIAL FOR THE THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE
IN THE NEXT 12 TO 48 HOURS IS LOW.

霧峰追風者

JTWC 14Z評級LOW。

(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95P) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
10.1S 175.0W, APPROXIMATELY 460 NM NORTHWEST OF PAGO PAGO, AMERICAN
SAMOA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 230901Z
MHS 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOW A VERY BROAD CIRCULATION WITH FLARING
CONVECTION LOCATED TO THE NORTH. A 230937Z ASCAT-C PASS SHOWS A
BROAD AREA OF TURNING WITH PRIMARILY 20 KNOT WINDS AND HIGHER WINDS
DISPLACED TO THE NORTH. THE DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED IN AN
AREA OF GOOD UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE, MODERATE TO HIGH VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (20-30 KNOTS), AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-30
CELSIUS). GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM WILL
INTENSIFY TO WARNING CRITERIA WITHIN THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES SOUTH INTO AN AREA OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS LOW.

jrchang5

JTWC於24/0130Z提升評級至Medium。

(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 10.1S 175.0W, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.5S 174.5W, APPROXIMATELY
360 NM NORTHWEST OF PAGO PAGO, AMERICAN SAMOA. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 232116Z MHS 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE
SHOW A VERY BROAD CIRCULATION WITH FLARING CONVECTION. A 232117Z
ASCAT-B PASS SHOWS A BROAD AREA OF TURNING WITH 25-30 KNOT WINDS TO
THE NORTH ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTH PACIFIC CONVERGENCE ZONE, BUT
WEAKER WINDS AND TROUGHING TO THE SOUTH. THE DISTURBANCE IS
CURRENTLY LOCATED IN AN AREA OF GOOD UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE,
MODERATE (15-20 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), AND WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (28-30 CELSIUS). GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT
THE SYSTEM WILL INTENSIFY TO WARNING CRITERIA WITHIN THE NEXT 36-72
HOURS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES SOUTH INTO AN AREA OF STRONGER UPPER LEVEL
OUTFLOW AND LOWER VWS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE
NEAR 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

jrchang5

FMS判定24/18Z升格為熱帶低壓。

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A1 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
0813 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TD11F CENTRE 1000HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.7S 176.7W AT 241800
UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON HR GOES AND HIMAWARI-8 EIR IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL
SURFACE REPORTS. TD11F MOVING SOUTH SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT 09 KNOTS. MAXIMUM
10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 25 KNOTS.

DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTENT NEAR THE LLCC. ORGANISATION REMAINS POOR.
SYSTEM LIES IN A LOW TO MODERATE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD UPPER DIVERGENCE.
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDS UP TO 500HPA. SST IS AROUND 30-31 DEGREES
CELCIUS.DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON 0.25 WRAP YIELDS DT=1.5. PT AND MET AGREE.
THUS, YIELDING T1.5/1.5/D0.5/24HRS.

GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND MOVE IT SOUTHWARDS WITH FURTHER
INTENSIFICATION.

THE POTENTIAL FOR THE THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT
24 TO 48 HOURS IS MODERATE TO HIGH.

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 250600 UTC 13.1S 175.7W MOV SE AT 09KT WITH 30 KT CLOSE TO
CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 251800 UTC 15.5S 175.2W MOV S AT 10KT WITH 35 KT CLOSE TO
CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 260600 UTC 18.5S 176.0W MOV S AT 13KT WITH 40 KT CLOSE TO
CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 261800 UTC 21.4S 177.6W MOV SSW AT 16KT WITH 45 KT CLOSE TO
CENTRE

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION TD11F WILL BE
ISSUED AROUND 250200 UTC.

老農民版夜神月

JTWC2513Z一報發出TCFA

2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED

NEAR 13.0S 174.9W, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.6S 175.5W, APPROXIMATELY

285 NM WEST OF PAGO PAGO, AMERICAN SAMOA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED

SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 250929Z MHS 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT AN

ELONGATED CIRCULATION WITH SEVERAL PATCHES OF FLARING CONVECTION

LOCATED OVER IT. A 250856Z ASCAT-C PASS SHOWS PRIMARILY 15-20 KNOT

WINDS NEAR THE CENTER OF AN ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH

HIGHER WINDS DISPLACED TO THE NORTH. THE DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY

LOCATED IN AN AREA OF GOOD UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE, MODERATE TO HIGH

(20-25 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES

(28-30 CELSIUS). GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM WILL

TRACK POLEWARD OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH INTENSIFICATION TO

WARNING STATUS LIKELY WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED

SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL

PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE

DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24

HOURS IS HIGH.

jrchang5

JTWC判定26/00Z升格為Tropical Cyclone 16P。

16P INVEST
As of 00:00 UTC Feb 26, 2019:

Location: 14.9°S 175.8°W
Maximum Winds: 35 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 997 mb

WTPS31 PGTW 260300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (SIXTEEN) WARNING NR 001//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (SIXTEEN) WARNING NR 001   
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   260000Z --- NEAR 14.9S 175.8W
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 175 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 14.9S 175.8W
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   261200Z --- 17.2S 175.8W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   270000Z --- 19.4S 176.9W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   271200Z --- 21.6S 177.5W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   280000Z --- 23.6S 177.8W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   010000Z --- 28.0S 176.6W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
260300Z POSITION NEAR 15.5S 175.8W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (SIXTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 194 NM
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF AVATA SAMOA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 10 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
A CONSOLIDATING AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION ORGANIZING AROUND A
DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. A 252037Z ASCAT PASS REVEALS
A SLIGHTLY ELONGATED LLCC WITH 35 KNOT WINDS IN THE SOUTHWEST
QUADRANT, AND GRADIENT ENHANCED 40 KNOT WINDS FURTHER REMOVED FROM
THE CENTER. THE INITIAL POSITION WAS PLACED BASED ON THE PGTW FIX AND
THE AFOREMENTIONED ASCAT PASS WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE INTENSITY WAS
ALSO BASED ON THE ASCAT PASS, AND IS CONSISTENT WITH DVORAK CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T2.5 FROM MULTIPLE AGENCIES. TC 16P IS IN A
HIGH AMPLITUDE STEERING PATTERN WITH A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED TO
THE EAST. OVERALL MOTION SHOULD BE GENERALLY SOUTHERLY THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD, HOWEVER, A SLIGHT WESTWARD DEFLECTION IS EXPECTED
AROUND TAU 24 AS THIS STEERING RIDGE BUILDS. AFTER TAU 48, A SHORT
WAVE TROUGH WILL RESULT IN A DEFLECTION BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST. THIS
DEEP TROUGH WILL INTERACT WITH 16P, LEADING TO EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION (ET) BEGINNING AT TAU 48. THE ET WILL BE COMPLETE BY TAU
72 AS STRONG BAROCLINICITY BECOMES ESTABLISHED. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 260000Z IS 9 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 261500Z AND 270300Z.//
NNNN

FMS則認定仍為熱帶低壓，但有機會在今日升格命名。

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A6 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
1355 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TD11F CENTRE 996HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.9S 175.9W AT 260000
UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON HR GOES/HIMAWARI-8 EIR AND VIS IMAGERY AND
PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. TD11F MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT 09 KNOTS.
MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 30 KNOTS.

DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTENT NEAR THE LLCC. OVERALL ORGANISATION HAS
IMPROVED IN THE PAST 24 HOURS. SYSTEM LIES IN A LOW TO MODERATE SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD UPPER DIVERGENCE. OUTFLOW GOOD TO THE NORTH AND EAST.
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDS UP TO 500HPA. SST IS AROUND 30 DEGREES CELCIUS.
DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON 0.35-0.4 WRAP YIELDS DT=2.5. PT AND MET AGREE. THUS,
YIELDING T2.5/2.5/D0.5/24HRS.

GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND MOVE IT SOUTHWARDS WITH FURTHER
INTENSIFICATION.

THE POTENTIAL FOR THE THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT
06 TO 12 HOURS IS HIGH.



FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 261200 UTC 17.2S 176.5W MOV SSW AT 12 KT WITH 40 KT CLOSE TO
CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 270000 UTC 19.6S 177.0W MOV SSW AT 12 KT WITH 45 KT CLOSE TO
CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 271200 UTC 21.9S 177.8W MOV SSW AT 12 KT WITH 45 KT CLOSE TO
CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 280000 UTC 24.4S 178.0W MOV S AT 12 KT WITH 45 KT CLOSE TO
CENTRE

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11F WILL BE ISSUED
AROUND 260800 UTC.

jrchang5

FMS判定26/12Z升格為澳式一級熱帶氣旋，並命名為Pola。

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A8 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Feb 261421 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE POLA CENTRE 993HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.4S 176.1W AT 261200 UTC.
POSITION POOR BASED ON HR HIMAWARI IR/EIR IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE
REPORTS. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTH AT ABOUT 6 KNOTS.
MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 40 KNOTS.
EXPECT WINDS ABOVE 33 KNOTS WITHIN 100 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 100 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT.

DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTENT WITH PRIMARY BAND TRYING TO WRAP ONTO LLCC.
OVERALL ORGANISATION HAS IMPROVED IN THE LAST 6 HOURS. SYSTEM
LIES IN A LOW TO MODERATE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD UPPER DIVERGENCE.
OUTFLOW REMAINS GOOD. CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDS UPTO 300HPA.
SST IS AROUND 28 DEGREES CELCIUS. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON 0.6/0.65 WRAP ON LOG
10 SPIRAL YIELDS DT=3.0. MET AND PAT AGREE.
FT BASED ON DT. YIELDING T3.0/3.0/D1.0/24HRS.

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 270000 UTC 18.5S 176.5W MOV S AT 11 KT WITH 45 KT CLOSE TO
CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 271200 UTC 20.3S 177.2W MOV SSW AT 11 KT WITH 50 KT CLOSE TO
CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 280000 UTC 21.9S 177.6W MOV SSW AT 10 KT WITH 50 KT CLOSE TO
CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 281200 UTC 23.7S 177.6W MOV S AT 09 KT WITH 50 KT CLOSE TO
CENTRE

HE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON POLA WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 262000 UTC.