霧峰追風者

  強烈熱帶氣旋  
編號：10-20182019 ( 17 S )
名稱：Haleh

  基本資料  
擾動編號日期：2019 年 02 月 27 日 20 時
JTWC升格日期:2019 年 03 月 02 日 14 時
命名日期　　：2019 年 03 月 02 日 15 時
撤編日期　　：2019 年 03 月 08 日 08 時
登陸地點　　：無

  巔峰時期資料  
近中心最大風速：
法國留尼旺氣象局 ( MFR )：95 kt
聯合颱風警報中心 (JTWC)：115 kts ( Cat.4 )
海平面最低氣壓：937 百帕

  過去路徑圖  

  擾動編號資料  
96S.INVEST.15kts-1010mb-5.7S-79.9E


以上資料來自：MFR、JTWC、颱風論壇整理製作

霧峰追風者

Suspect area East of Diego-Garcia :
A wide clockwise circulation is visible on the sat animations between Diego Garcia and the 90th
meridian, but the ASCAT swath did not cover the central area of circulation this morning.
Convection is strong all over this wide area but currently remains ill-organized. OMM buoy nb
1501515 is monitoring a 3-hPa decrease over the last 24 hours. Over the next days, with
strengthening trade winds, a more meridian monsoon flow and a clear improvement in the upper
levels, the environment becomes particularly conducive for cyclogenesis. The wave activity is
probably responsible for these large-scale changes. All models and ensemble available are now in
good agreement to forecast a cyclogenesis followed by a significant gradual intensification next
week.
Over the next 5 days, the risk of development of a moderate tropical storm becomes moderate
Saturday then high from Monday in the East of Diego Garcia.

jrchang5

JTWC 27/18Z評級Low。

(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 5.7S
79.9E, APPROXIMATELY 442 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND AN 271605Z MHS METOP-A 89GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A POORLY ORGANIZED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
(LLC) WITH CYCLING DEEP CONVECTION. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT
MODERATE TO STRONG (20-30 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS OFFSET BY
GOOD DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. A RECENT PARTIAL ASCAT PASS DEPICTS A BROAD
AND ELONGATED CIRCULATION EMBEDDED IN THE MONSOON TROUGH. SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-30 CELSIUS) IN THE SURROUNDING WATERS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR FUTURE DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT THE
SYSTEM WILL TRACK SOUTHWEST AND GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT
48-72 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO
15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1010
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

老農民版夜神月

JTWC:Medium

(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 5.7S 79.9E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 7.4S 80.0E, APPROXIMATELY 445
NM EAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND AN 281544Z MHS METOP-A 89GHZ SHOW A BROAD LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH PERSISTENT BUT DISORGANIZED CONVECTION AND
FRAGMENTED BANDING. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS DEPICTS MODERATE TO STRONG
(20-30 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR BEING OFFSET BY STRONG OUTFLOW
ALOFT. A RECENT PARTIAL ASCAT PASS DEPICTS BROAD TROUGHING WITH
STRONGER WINDS TO THE SOUTH. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-30
CELSIUS) IN THE SURROUNDING WATERS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT.
DYNAMIC MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT, INDICATING A SOUTHWESTWARD
TRAJECTORY OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS, BUT VARY IN TIME AND INTENSITY
OF DEVELOPMENT, AND SHOW STRONGER WINDS TO THE SOUTH EVENTUALLY
WRAPPING UP IN THE CIRCULATION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO
MEDIUM.

jrchang5

JTWC於01/09Z發布TCFA。

WTXS21 PGTW 010900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 96S)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 9.9S 77.2E TO 15.5S 72.1E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 010800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 10.2S 76.9E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 7.4S 80.0E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.2S 76.9E, APPROXIMATELY 315
NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A 010531Z GMI 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOW A SLIGHTLY
ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH PERSISTING CONVECTIVE BANDING
PRESENT TO THE SOUTH AND CONVECTION ALSO PERSISTING OVER THE CENTER.
A 010359Z ASCAT PASS SHOWS A SLIGHTLY ELONGATED CIRCULATION WITH
PRIMARILY 15-20 KNOT WINDS NEAR THE CENTER, BUT 30 KNOT WINDS TO THE
SOUTH BEGINNING TO WRAP IN. THE DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED IN
AN AREA OF EXCELLENT POLEWARD DIVERGENCE, LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(10-15 KNOTS), AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-30 KNOTS).
GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO
TRACK TO THE SOUTHWEST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND SHOW
INTENSIFICATION TO WARNING CRITERIA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
020900Z.//
NNNN

霧峰追風者

編號熱帶擾動第10號

WTIO20 FMEE 011219
SECURITE
WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 01/03/2019
AT 1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 001/10 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: FRIDAY 01/03/2019 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 10 1003 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 25 NM RADIUS OF POINT 10.3 S / 75.7 E
(TEN    DECIMAL THREE   DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY FIVE    DECIMAL SEVEN   DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 8 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER IN A 100 NM RADIUS AROUND THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO
200 NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION 20/25KT
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2019/03/02 AT 00 UTC:
11.1 S / 74.5 E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION
24H, VALID 2019/03/02 AT 12 UTC:
12.4 S / 73.2 E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

jrchang5

MFR 01/18Z升格為熱帶低壓。02/00Z最新一報仍判定為熱帶低壓，但有機會在今日命名。

ZCZC 939
WTIO30 FMEE 011826 RRA
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 2/10/20182019
1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10
2.A POSITION 2019/03/01 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 10.7 S / 75.6 E
(TEN    DECIMAL SEVEN   DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY FIVE    DECIMAL SIX   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 7 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.0/2.0/D 0.5/6 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 999 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 30 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 370 SW: 170 NW: 0
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/03/02 06 UTC: 12.1 S / 74.5 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2019/03/02 18 UTC: 13.5 S / 73.6 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2019/03/03 06 UTC: 14.8 S / 73.2 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2019/03/03 18 UTC: 16.0 S / 73.0 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
60H: 2019/03/04 06 UTC: 17.2 S / 72.9 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
72H: 2019/03/04 18 UTC: 18.2 S / 72.6 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2019/03/05 18 UTC: 20.1 S / 71.1 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
120H: 2019/03/06 18 UTC: 22.2 S / 68.9 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=2.0
NNNN

ZCZC 999
WTIO30 FMEE 020029
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 3/10/20182019
1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10
2.A POSITION 2019/03/02 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 11.4 S / 75.3 E
(ELEVEN    DECIMAL FOUR   DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY FIVE    DECIMAL THREE   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 7 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/2.5/D 1.5/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 998 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 30 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 460 SW: 220 NW: 0
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/03/02 12 UTC: 12.9 S / 74.1 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2019/03/03 00 UTC: 14.3 S / 73.4 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2019/03/03 12 UTC: 15.6 S / 73.0 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2019/03/04 00 UTC: 16.7 S / 72.7 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
60H: 2019/03/04 12 UTC: 17.8 S / 72.4 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
72H: 2019/03/05 00 UTC: 18.6 S / 72.0 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2019/03/06 00 UTC: 20.6 S / 70.1 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
120H: 2019/03/07 00 UTC: 23.0 S / 67.4 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=2.5
THE VERY COLD CLOUD TOPS THAT WAS OVER THE CENTER BY THE TIME OF THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY HAS COLLAPSED SOMEWHAT AROUND 21Z PROBABLY DUE TO
SOME NORTH-EASTERLY SHEAR. SINCE THAT TIME, SOME VERY COLD TOPS
BANDING FEATURES HAS REDEVELOPED OVER THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND
THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT. SSMI PASS AT 2212Z REVEAL THAT THE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION HAS CONTINUED TO IMPROVE WITH A CLEAR CENTER NOW
DEPICTED ON 37 GHZ IMAGERY. DUE TO THE STILL FLUCTUATING NATURE OF
THE DEEP CONVECTION, THE FINAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 30 KT IN
AGREEMENT WITH THE HIGHEST AVAILABLE SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES.
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING ON THE NORTH-WESTERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL
ANTICYCLONE. THE STEERING FLOW IS THEN EXPECTED TO BEND NORTHWARD AS
THE LOW DEEPEN AND A WEAKNESS DEVELOPS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH. AT LONGER RANGE, THE
SYSTEM MAY MOVE SOUTH-WESTWARD AHEAD OF A NEW SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THIS
SCENARIO REMAINS BASED ON THE CONSENSUS OF THE MAIN RELIABLE MODELS.
THERE IS SOME REASONABLE SPREAD AMONGST THE GUIDANCE WITH VERY GOOD
AGREEMENT BETWEEN LATEST OUTPUTS FROM GFS AND IFS AND UKMO AS AN
OUTLIER TO THE EAST.
REGARDS THE INTENSITY FORECAST, THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO BENEFIT FROM
IMPROVING ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS TODAY. RI INDEX STILL SUGGEST THAT
A 25 KT INCREASE IS POSSIBLE UP TO 18Z TONIGHT. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
REMAINS BELOW THAT RATE AT THIS TIME. AFTER THAT TIME, THE RATE OF
INTENSIFICATION IS SLOW DOWN MAINLY DUE TO MID LEVEL SUBTROPICAL DRY
AIR INGESTION WRAPPING FROM THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN CIRCULATION.
SOME SIGNIFICANT OCEANIC CONTAIN MAY OFFSET THIS NEGATIVE
THERMODYNAMICS EFFECTS.
FROM MONDAY AND BEYOND, THE EXPECTED ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITION HAS
CHANGED SOMEWHAT WITH THE 12Z AND EARLY MODELS FROM 18Z CYCLES. THERE
IS LESS NORTHERLY SHEAR EXPECTED INVOLVING LESS INFLUENCE FROM THE
DRY MID LEVEL AIR LOCATED JUST NORTH OF THE SYSTEM. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST HAS BEEN UPGRADED BUT OVERALL THERE IS LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
THE FORECAST BY THAT TIME AS THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS MAY CHANGE
AGAIN WITH THE NEXT CYCLE ...=
NNNN

jrchang5

MFR判定02/06Z升格為中度熱帶風暴，並命名為Haleh。

Bulletin du 02 mars à 10H04 locales Réunion:
TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE HALEH.
Vents maximaux (moyennés sur 10 minutes) estimés sur mer: 65 km/h.
Rafales maximales estimées sur mer: 95 km/h.
Pression estimée au centre: 997 hPa.
Position le 02 mars à 10 heures locales Réunion: 12.2 Sud / 75.2 Est.
Distance des côtes réunionnaises: 2285 km au secteur: EST-NORD-EST
Distance de Mayotte: 3260 km au secteur: EST
Déplacement: SUD, à 15 km/h.
Ce bulletin est à présent terminé.
Consulter le Bulletin d'Activité Cyclonique (voir menu de droite)
pour obtenir les prévisions sur ce système.

WTIO31 FMEE 020614
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN INDIEN)
0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 4/10/20182019
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 10 (HALEH)
2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 02/03/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 12.2 S / 75.2 E
(DOUZE DEGRES DEUX SUD ET SOIXANTE QUINZE DEGRES DEUX EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD 8 KT
3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 2.5/2.5/S 0.0/0 H
4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 997 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 35 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): NON RENSEIGNE
6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 90 SE: 460 SO: 220 NO: 90
34 KT NE: SE: 220 SO: 190 NO:
7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1006 HPA / 600 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE
1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 02/03/2019 18 UTC: 13.4 S / 73.9 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE TROPICALE
MODEREE
24H: 03/03/2019 06 UTC: 14.7 S / 73.2 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE TEMPETE
TROPICALE
36H: 03/03/2019 18 UTC: 16.2 S / 72.9 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE TEMPETE
TROPICALE
48H: 04/03/2019 06 UTC: 17.3 S / 72.4 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE TEMPETE
TROPICALE
60H: 04/03/2019 18 UTC: 18.4 S / 71.7 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, CYCLONE TROPICAL
72H: 05/03/2019 06 UTC: 19.3 S / 71.1 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, CYCLONE TROPICAL
2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 06/03/2019 06 UTC: 20.9 S / 70.1 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, CYCLONE TROPICAL
120H: 07/03/2019 06 UTC: 23.6 S / 69.1 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, CYCLONE TROPICAL
2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=2.5+

JTWC於同一時間亦升格為Tropical Cyclone 17S。

17S HALEH
As of 06:00 UTC Mar 02, 2019:

Location: 12.1°S 75.1°E
Maximum Winds: 40 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 996 mb