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jrchang5|2019-3-17 09:18
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本帖最後由 jrchang5 於 2019-3-17 09:58 編輯
BoM判定17/00Z仍為熱帶低壓並編號20U，在約克角半島以東緩慢向西南西移動，有機會在18日升格命名，並將於19日以澳式C2強度在該半島東岸登陸。
IDQ20018
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - EASTERN REGION
Issued by BRISBANE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0145 UTC 17/03/2019
Name: Tropical Low
Identifier: 20U
Data At: 0000 UTC
Latitude: 10.5S
Longitude: 146.9E
Location Accuracy: within 30 nm [55 km]
Movement Towards: south southwest [206 deg]
Speed of Movement: 2 knots [4 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 25 knots [45 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 45 knots [85 km/h]
Central Pressure: 1000 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 40 nm [75 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds:
Dvorak Intensity Code: T2.0/2.0/W0.5/24HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1008 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 300 nm [555 km]
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+06: 17/0600: 10.8S 146.7E: 040 [080]: 030 [055]: 1000
+12: 17/1200: 11.1S 146.5E: 055 [100]: 030 [055]: 1000
+18: 17/1800: 11.5S 146.1E: 065 [125]: 030 [055]: 1001
+24: 18/0000: 11.7S 145.5E: 080 [145]: 030 [055]: 1001
+36: 18/1200: 11.7S 144.9E: 100 [180]: 035 [065]: 997
+48: 19/0000: 12.2S 144.2E: 120 [220]: 045 [085]: 992
+60: 19/1200: 12.3S 143.2E: 140 [255]: 050 [095]: 989
+72: 20/0000: 12.5S 142.2E: 180 [335]: 030 [055]: 1001
+96: 21/0000: 12.7S 141.6E: 200 [370]: 030 [055]: 1000
+120: 22/0000: 13.5S 141.0E: 200 [370]: 045 [085]: 991
REMARKS:
A Tropical Low is located to the south of the PNG mainland. Centre location is
fair based on VIS and microwave animation. This has been confirmed by the latest
ASCAT pass. A small deep convective blob near centre gives a DT=1.5 with deeper
convection located in a band further to the northwest. Current Intensity is
based on MET=2.0=PT.
The ASCAT pass shows a decent low level cross equatorial flow feeding into the
low with gales located near centre in the NE quadrant. The low is located in a
low vertical wind shear zone under an upper high with good upper level outflow
to the west and south, aided by an upper cut-off low moving eastwards in the far
south. Sea surface temperatures in the northwest Coral Sea are around 30
degrees.
The low is showing reasonably good organisation but missing deep convection near
centre at present. However, the favourable environment will lead to the low
developing into a tropical cyclone in the next 24 hours. Further intensification
to category 2 is possible.
The low is likely to be steered by the weak mid-level ridge located to its east
in the short term and then by a stronger ridge building over Australia as the
cut-off low in the far south moves away. Overall, a west-southwest movement
would be favoured throughout its life-time. On this path, the cyclone would
cross the Cape York Peninsula coast and weaken due to land effects during early
week.
Given the favourable conditions persisting in the longer term, there is a good
chance that the cyclone may redevelop once it moves into the southern Gulf of
Carpentaria by mid to late week.
Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 17/0730 UTC by Brisbane
TCWC.
IDQ20023
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Queensland
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre
Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this warning.
PRIORITY
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 1
Issued at 10:37 am EST on Sunday 17 March 2019
Headline:
High chance of tropical cyclone formation in the northwest Coral Sea on Monday
Areas Affected:
Warning Zone
None.
Watch Zone
Torres Strait Islands to Cape Flattery.
Cancelled Zone
None.
Details of Tropical Low at 10:00 am AEST:
Intensity: Tropical Low, sustained winds near the centre of 45 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 85 kilometres per hour.
Location: within 55 kilometres of 10.5 degrees South 146.9 degrees East, estimated to be 465 kilometres east northeast of Lockhart River and 730 kilometres north of Cairns.
Movement: slow moving.
The tropical low is expected to continue tracking in a general westwards direction towards the far north Queensland coast over the next couple of days. At this stage, the system is rated a high chance of forming into a tropical cyclone on Monday and is forecast to reach category 2 intensity prior to moving onto the far north Queensland coast late on Tuesday or during Wednesday.
Hazards:
GALES, with gusts in excess of 90 km/h, may develop between the Torres Strait Islands and Cape Flattery on Tuesday. DESTRUCTIVE WINDS, with gusts in excess of 125 km/h, may occur about a small stretch of the far north Queensland coast if the system reaches category 2 intensity prior to moving onto the coast late on Tuesday or during Wednesday.
As the cyclone crosses the coast late on Tuesday or during Wednesday, ABNORMALLY HIGH TIDES are expected about the far north Queensland coast. Large waves are likely along the beachfront.
HEAVY RAINFALL, which may lead to flash flooding, is forecast to develop across far north Queensland over the next few days.
Recommended Action:
People between the Torres Strait Islands and Cape Flattery should consider what action they will need to take if the cyclone threat increases.
- Information is available from your local government
- For cyclone preparedness and safety advice, visit Queensland's Disaster Management Services website (www.disaster.qld.gov.au)
- For emergency assistance call the Queensland State Emergency Service (SES) on 132 500 (for assistance with storm damage, rising flood water, fallen trees on buildings or roof damage).
Next Advice:
The next advice will be issued by 5:00 pm AEST Sunday 17 March.
This warning is also available through TV and Radio Broadcasts; the Bureau's website at www.bom.gov.au or call 1300 659 212. The Bureau and the State Emergency Service would appreciate this warning being broadcast regularly. IDQ20008
SECURITE
HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE BRISBANE
AT 0110UTC 17 MARCH 2019
GALE WARNING FOR NORTH EASTERN AREA
SITUATION
At 0000 UTC a Tropical Low was centred within 30 nautical miles of
latitude ten decimal five south (10.5S)
longitude one hundred and forty six decimal nine east (146.9E)
Recent movement : slow moving
Maximum winds : 25 knots
Central pressure: 1000 hPa
AREA AFFECTED
Within 40 nautical miles in NE quadrant
FORECAST
Maximum winds to 25 knots near the centre increasing to 30 knots by 0000 UTC 18
March.
Winds above 34 knots within 40 nautical miles in NE quadrant with rough to very
rough seas and moderate swell.
REMARKS
All ships in the area please send weather reports every three hours. Regular
weather observing ships use normal channels. Other ships please use either
email to marwxqld@bom.gov.au or fax to +61732200221 or satellite using SAC1241
through Land Earth Station Burum 312 [or 212 as appropriate] via Perth.
Next warning will be issued by 0700 UTC 17 March 2019.
WEATHER BRISBANE
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