老農民版夜神月

  強烈熱帶氣旋  
編號：13-20182019 ( 22 S )
名稱：Joaninha

  基本資料  
擾動編號日期：2019 年 03 月 14 日 05 時
JTWC升格日期:2019 年 03 月 22 日 08 時
命名日期　　：2019 年 03 月 22 日 17 時
撤編日期　　：2019 年 03 月 00 日 00 時
登陸地點　　：無

  巔峰時期資料  
近中心最大風速：
法國留尼旺氣象局 ( MFR )：100 kt
聯合颱風警報中心 (JTWC)：115 kts ( Cat.4 )
海平面最低氣壓：939 百帕

  過去路徑圖  
無

  擾動編號資料  
93S INVEST 190313 1800 10.3S 70.9E SHEM 15 0


以上資料來自：MFR、JTWC、颱風論壇整理製作

霧峰追風者

JTWC 05Z評級Low

(2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
12.8S 63.2E, APPROXIMATELY 639 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF LA REUNION.
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY AND A 182246Z SSMI 85GHZ DEPICT A
WEAKLY-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH DISORGANIZED
CONVECTION. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS DEPICTS 93S BORDERING AN AREA OF
MODERATE TO STRONG (20-30 KNOT) VERTICAL WINDS SHEAR WITH POLEWARD
OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-30 CELSIUS) IN THE SURROUNDING
WATERS SUPPORT FUTURE DEVELOPMENT. MULTIPLE MODELS INDICATE WEAK,
SLOW DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 48-72 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS LOW.

老農民版夜神月

數值無論主觀模式或系集均看好這個系統在一兩天後的發展
縱使自從編擾後發展的訊號一直存在,但到了近幾日才開始變得穩定
93S也算媳婦熬成婆了

霧峰追風者

Suspect area South-West of the Chagos archipelago :
Within the MT an area of concentrated thunderstorm activity is still located between 10-13°S and
55-70°E. Last ASCAT swaths show a broad trough with probably a more pronounced circulation
near 62E. In the next days, environmental conditions appears conducive for the intensification of
this system (good monsoon feeding and upper divergence first at north than on polarside). only a
westerly constraint increasing from Sunday may limit its potential.
Numerical guidance is becoming to converge toward a consensus. Indeed, last main models runs
suggest a cyclogenesis east of 60E. Later, due to the presence of a ridge at its north-east and the lack
of high geopotentials at south, a southward then southeatsward track is likely. Rodrigues island
appears much more threaten for now than the other islands of the Mascarene Archipelago. On the
fastness of the deepening, there still some inconsistencies, with IFS and its ensemble slower than
the others. This scenario may be too cautious given the recent Arome runs (coupled with IFS) and
the imperfect analysis.
The risk of formation of a moderate tropical storm North of the Mascarenes archipelago
becomes moderate on Thursday and high from Friday.

老農民版夜神月

JTWC1923Z評級Medium

(2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 12.3S 63.6E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.1S 63.1E, APPROXIMATELY 640
NM NORTHEAST OF SAINT-DENIS, LA REUNION. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A 191731Z 89GHZ MHS MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A BROAD LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) ACCOMPANIED BY DISORGANIZED, BUT FLARING,
CONVECTION. A 191731Z ASCAT PASS SHOWS 20-25 KNOT WINDS WRAPPING INTO
THE CIRCULATION CENTER. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS DEPICTS LOW (10-15KTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WITH FAVORABLE POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW.
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-30 CELSIUS) IN THE SURROUNDING WATERS
SUPPORT FUTURE DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE CONTINUED
NEAR-TERM INTENSIFICATION, WITH THE SYSTEM REACHING WARNING CRITERIA
IN 36-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20
TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005
MB. BASED ON INCREASING ORGANIZATION AND SUPPORTIVE ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

老農民版夜神月

數值模式普遍看好今明兩日開始93S將會有所發展

老農民版夜神月

JTWC20/2130Z發布TCFA

WTXS21 PGTW 202130
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12.3S 60.6E TO 15.9S 60.3E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 28 TO 33 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 201800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 12.6S 60.6E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 12.6S 61.2E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.6S 61.2E, APPROXIMATELY 512
NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF MAURITIUS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY, ALONG WITH A 201343Z SSMIS F-18 91GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGE, SHOWS BUILDING DEEP CONVECTION OVER A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION. A 200548Z PARTIAL METOP-B ASCAT PASS SHOWS A SLIGHTLY
ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS TO THE
NORTH AND SOUTH. 93S IS CURRENTLY IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH
GOOD POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNELS, WARM (29 TO 30
CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, AND MODERATE (10 TO 20 KNOT)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 93S
WILL TRACK SOUTHWARD, RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING TO WARNING CRITERIA BETWEEN
TAU 24 AND 48, BEFORE TURNING SOUTHEASTWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 998 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
212130Z.//
NNNN

霧峰追風者

MFR 12Z編號熱帶擾動13號，上望熱帶氣旋。

WTIO31 FMEE 211218
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN INDIEN)
0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 1/13/20182019
1.A ZONE PERTURBEE 13
2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 21/03/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 13.2 S / 60.9 E
(TREIZE DEGRES DEUX SUD ET SOIXANTE DEGRES NEUF EST)
DEPLACEMENT: QUASI-STATIONNAIRE.
3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 1.5/1.5/S 0.0/0 H
4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 1002 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 20 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 130 KM
6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
NON RENSEIGNE
7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1007 HPA / 600 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: MOYENNE
1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 22/03/2019 00 UTC: 13.6 S / 61.0 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION TROPICALE
24H: 22/03/2019 12 UTC: 14.4 S / 61.4 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE TROPICALE
MODEREE
36H: 23/03/2019 00 UTC: 15.4 S / 61.3 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE TEMPETE
TROPICALE
48H: 23/03/2019 12 UTC: 16.5 S / 61.2 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE TEMPETE
TROPICALE
60H: 24/03/2019 00 UTC: 17.4 S / 61.2 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE TEMPETE
TROPICALE
72H: 24/03/2019 12 UTC: 18.2 S / 61.4 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE TROPICAL
2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 25/03/2019 12 UTC: 20.0 S / 63.3 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, CYCLONE TROPICAL
120H: 26/03/2019 12 UTC: 22.4 S / 65.8 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, CYCLONE TROPICAL
2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=1.5
SUIVIE DEPUIS PLUSIEURS JOURS DANS LES BULLETINS AWIO21 FMEE, LA ZONE
DEPRESSIONNAIRE SE SITUANT AU NORD-NORD-EST DE SAINT BRANDON PRESENTE
DE PLUS EN PLUS DE SIGNE D'ORGANISATION. A PARTIR DE CE RESEAU DE 12UTC,
CETTE ZONE EST MAINTENANT SUIVIE PAR LE CMRS DE LA REUNION EN TANT QUE
ZONE PERTURBEE (ZP) 13-20182019.
AU COURS DE DERNIERES 6 HEURES, LA CONVECTION RESTE FLUCTUANTE MAIS
S'ORGANISE DE PLUS EN PLUS AUTOUR D'UN CENTRE QUI SEMBLE MIEUX SE
DESSINER. UNE CONFIGURATION EN BANDE INCURVEE EST DECELABLE
DEFINISSANT UNE ANALYSE DE DVORAK A 1.5. CETTE ANALYSE CORROBORE LES
VALEURS DE 20/25KT OBTENUES PAR LA PASSE ASCAT DE 0415UTC.
AVEC UNE CIRCULATION VERTICALE PEU ETENDUE, LA ZP EST SOUMISE A UN FLUX
ENCORE MAL DEFINI AU COURS DES PROCHAINES 12H. PAR LA SUITE, C'EST LE
FLUX TRANS-EQUATORIAL DE NORD-OUEST, IMPOSE PAR UNE DORSALE PROCHE
EQUATORIALE SE SITUANT AU NORD-EST DU SYSTEME QUI VA INDUIRE LA
TRAJECTOIRE AU SYSTEME. UNE COMPOSANTE GLOBALEMENT SUD SERA PRISE
VENDREDI ET SAMEDI, AVANT QU'UNE ORIENTATION PLUS SUD-EST NE SE METTE
EN PLACE A PARTIR DE DIMANCHE EN JOURNEE. SUR CETTE TRAJECTOIRE, LE
METEORE EST PREVU PASSE ENTRE MAURICE ET RODRIGUES EN FIN DE JOURNEE
DE LUNDI PROCHAIN, A PROXIMITE IMMEDIATE DE RODRIGUES AU STADE DE
CYCLONE TROPICAL. LA PRESENTE PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE DU CMRS PREND
EN COMPTE CETTE COMPOSANTE GLOBALEMENT SUD EN CORRIGEANT LE
DECALAGE DE POSITION A L'ANALYSE DE LA PLUPART DES MODELES NUMERIQUES.
SE SITUANT SUR DES EAUX AU CONTENU ENERGETIQUE SUFFISANT ET SOUS UN
ENVIRONNEMENT DE FAIBLE CISAILLEMENT, LE METEORE VA POUVOIR
S'INTENSIFIER AFIN DE CONSOLIDER SA CIRCULATION ENCORE FAIBLE AU COURS
DES PROCHAINES HEURES. AIDE PAR UNE ALIMENTATION COTE EQUATORIALE BIEN
DEFINIE ET CONSTANTE, L'INTENSIFICATION SERA REGULIERE AU COURS DES 4
PROCHAINS JOURS. PUIS SUR CETTE TRAJECTOIRE, LE SYSTEME VA SUBIR UN
CISAILLEMENT GRANDISSANT A PARTIR DE LUNDI CE QUI MARQUERA LE DEBUT DE
SON AFFAIBLISSEMENT.