霧峰追風者

  基本資料  
編號　　　　：99 W
擾動編號日期：2019 年 04 月 02 日 02 時
撤編日期　　：2019 年 04 月 04 日 20 時
99W.INVEST.15kts-1010mb-3.3N-153.0E

霧峰追風者

JTWC 00Z評級Low

(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 3.3N
153.0E, APPROXIMATELY 244 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CHUUK. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY DEPICTS AN AREA OF BROAD TURNING WITH NO
DISCERNIBLE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. A 012012Z SSMIS 91GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE EMPHASIZES THAT THERE IS DISORGANIZED, FLARING
CONVECTION IN THE VICINITY OF THE SYSTEM. THE ENVIRONMENT IS
MARGINAL FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW, WARM SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-30C), AND STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (30-40
KTS). AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES ON A NORTH TO NORTHWEST TRAJECTORY,
PER GLOBAL MODELS, WIND SHEAR WILL BECOME MORE FAVORABLE AND ENHANCE
DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE
SYSTEM’S MOVEMENT BUT DIFFER ON THE TIMING OF THE SYSTEM’S
DEVELOPMENT INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE VARYING FROM 36 TO 48 HOURS.  
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1010 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW

jrchang5

JTWC 03/06Z取消評級。

(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 4.2N 155.2E, HAS DISSIPATED AND IS NO LONGER SUSPECT FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

老農民版夜神月

這是曾經支持發展的GFS主觀預測及部分系集

但在GFS0206Z預報中主觀預測便不再看好,系集同樣在0218Z後不再看好有任何發展


這是99W現在的整體對流

現在的定位及定強,從定位可見中心附近對流已經相當微弱

WP, 99, 2019040306, , BEST, 0, 4.5N, 151.6E, 15, 1010, DB

自家數值已經數報的不看好及99W本身隨著時間越來越鬆散弱勢
對99W撤評便也不難理解