A tropical low was located near 9.7S 94.6E at midday WST, which is about 370 km northwest of the Cocos (Keeling) Islands. It is forecast to slow moving or drift south over the next few days. The system has a Low risk of developing in the short term, increasing to Moderate on Thursday, when there is a chance it is just west of the Cocos (Keeling) Islands. The proximity of the trough and tropical low is likely to see fresh to strong winds and squally showers and thunderstorms with moderate to heavy falls continue at the Cocos (Keeling) Islands.
Likelihood of this system being a tropical cyclone in the Western Region on:
Tuesday: Low
Wednesda: Low
Thursday: Moderate
A tropical low was located approximately near 9.8S 93.7E at 1pm WST, which is about 430 km northwest of the Cocos (Keeling) Islands. It could be slow moving or drift east in the short term, then start moving south on Wednesday or Thursday. There is a chance the system develops, with a Moderate risk for Thursday and Friday. During this time, it could be close to or west of the Cocos (Keeling) Islands.
Likelihood of this system being a tropical cyclone in the Western Region on:
Wednesday: Low
Thursday:Moderate
Friday:Moderate
(2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 9.4S
93.8E, APPROXIMATELY 284 NM NORTHWEST OF COCOS ISLAND. ANIMATED
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS FLARING DEEP CONVECTION
OBSCURING A BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). A 231240Z SSMIS 91GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS POCKETS OF DEEP CONVECTION IN THE VICINITY OF
THE LLC WITH POTENTIAL FORMATIVE BANDING TO THE NORTHEAST. 92S IS
CURRENTLY IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW (5 TO 15 KNOT)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW, AND WARM (31
CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT 92S WILL INITIALLY TRACK EASTWARD BEFORE TURNING
SOUTHWARD WHILE BEGINNING TO UNDERGO BINARY INTERACTION WITH 25S,
POTENTIALLY BEING ABSORBED BY IT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 9.4S 93.8E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.2S 94.2E, APPROXIMATELY 171
NM WEST OF COCOS ISLAND. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY, ALONG WITH A 241128Z SSMIS F-18 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE,
SHOWS A PARTIALLY OBSCURED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH AN AREA
OF DEEP CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH. 92S IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
WITH EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW, WARM (29 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURE, AND IS LYING IN A BELT OF LOW (5 TO 15 KNOT) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (VWS) WITH MUCH HIGHER VWS VALUES TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH.
GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT 92S WILL CONTINUE TO
TRACK SOUTHWARD WITH MARGINAL INTENSIFICATION; HOWEVER, THEY
DISAGREE ON WHETHER 92S WILL DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE BEFORE
POSSIBLY MERGING WITH 25S. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO
MEDIUM.
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 11.2S 94.2E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.8S 93.9E, APPROXIMATELY
177 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF COCOS ISLANDS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 251213Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT
AN ELONGATED AND DISORGANIZED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH
SCATTERED CONVECTION. A RECENT ASCAT PASS REVEALS AN ELONGATED
TROUGHING STRUCTURE WITH 25 KT WINDS WRAPPED MOST OF THE WAY AROUND
IT. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT 92S IS IN AN AREA OF LOW TO
MODERATE (15-20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WITH POLEWARD OUTFLOW
ALOFT BUT PRESSURE FROM NORTHERLY WINDS ALOFT. WHILE SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (28-29 CELSIUS) IN THE SURROUNDING WATERS REMAIN
SUPPORTIVE FOR FUTURE DEVELOPMENT, 92S IS UNDERGOING DIRECT CYCLONE
INTERACTION WITH TC 25S, 6 DEGREES TO THE WEST, WHICH IS CAUSING THE
STRUCTURE OF 92S TO DISINTEGRATE. DYNAMIC MODELS INDICATE A
SOUTHWARD TRAJECTORY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THEN CONSOLIDATING WITH
TC 25S (LORNA) AFTER TAU 36. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS DOWNGRADED
TO LOW.
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 11.2S 94.2E, HAS DISSIPATED AND IS NO LONGER SUSPECT FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
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