1109 梅花登陸朝鮮半島持續減弱

TONY · 2011-7-31 12:00

發現CWB的預測圖十分偏北
我認為路徑應該要往南修了
因為梅花速度實在太慢甚至常常出現停滯的現象
如果未來引導氣流仍不明顯則會繼續滯留或龜速前進
等到高壓勢力增強就要轉西了所以預測應該要再往南修.

sunny711 · 2011-7-31 12:00

氣象局居然會給928mb 50m的強度，這種數據已經很久没看過了，上次出現是什麼時候呢?
路徑預測後期西偏角度似乎不大，是否還會再做調整？再觀察看看吧！

mathew12310 · 2011-7-31 12:08

JMA早上數值，不過只有到+84HR

評論:數值明顯調西，到24N附近折西

RSMC GUIDANCE FOR FORECAST
NAME TY 1109 MUIFA (1109)
PSTN 310000UTC 16.8N 132.4E
PRES  930HPA
MXWD  95KT
FORECAST BY GLOBAL MODEL
TIME PSTN    PRES MXWD
               (CHANGE FROM T=0)
T=06 17.3N 132.5E -011HPA +009KT
T=12 17.7N 132.7E -020HPA +022KT
T=18 18.1N 132.8E -029HPA +030KT
T=24 18.6N 132.9E -031HPA +033KT
T=30 19.4N 132.9E -031HPA +033KT
T=36 20.1N 132.8E -033HPA +032KT
T=42 20.7N 132.6E -033HPA +031KT
T=48 21.3N 132.3E -029HPA +032KT
T=54 22.0N 132.0E -033HPA +034KT
T=60 22.5N 131.5E -031HPA +032KT
T=66 23.0N 130.8E -032HPA +031KT
T=72 23.4N 130.3E -034HPA +036KT
T=78 23.8N 129.6E -043HPA +036KT
T=84 23.9N 128.9E -042HPA +037KT=

sheeprex · 2011-7-31 12:15

在此再次提醒會員不要一在發表洗版文.反盼風文

mathew12310 · 2011-7-31 12:18

這是另一個JMA數值

結論:下午JMA應該會再西調

RSMC GUIDANCE FOR FORECAST
NAME TY 1109 MUIFA (1109)
PSTN 310000UTC 16.8N 132.4E
PRES  930HPA
MXWD  95KT
FORECAST BY TYPHOON ENSEMBLE PREDICTION SYSTEM
TIME    PSTN    PRES MXWD
               (CHANGE FROM T=0)
T=006 17.3N 132.5E  000HPA +003KT
T=012 17.8N 132.6E +002HPA +001KT
T=018 18.2N 132.7E +001HPA  000KT
T=024 18.8N 132.8E +004HPA +001KT
T=030 19.5N 132.9E +002HPA +001KT
T=036 20.1N 133.0E +004HPA +001KT
T=042 20.8N 132.8E +002HPA +001KT
T=048 21.5N 132.6E +003HPA +002KT
T=054 22.1N 132.3E  000HPA +001KT
T=060 22.7N 131.8E +001HPA +001KT
T=066 23.1N 131.2E  000HPA +001KT
T=072 23.5N 130.6E  000HPA +002KT
T=078 23.8N 130.0E -003HPA +001KT
T=084 24.0N 129.3E -003HPA +002KT
T=090 24.2N 128.7E -005HPA +003KT
T=096 24.4N 128.1E -005HPA +004KT
T=102 24.6N 127.5E -008HPA +006KT
T=108 24.8N 127.0E -008HPA +006KT
T=114 25.1N 126.6E -008HPA +004KT
T=120 25.4N 126.0E -007HPA +006KT
T=126 25.7N 125.3E -010HPA +008KT
T=132 25.9N 124.7E -008HPA +005KT=