红豆棒冰冰

  基本資料  
編號　　　　：93 A ARB 01(02A)
擾動編號日期：2019 年 06 月 07 日 17 時
撤編日期　　：2019 年 06 月 00 日 00 時
93A INVEST 190607 0600 10.9N 73.5E IO 15 1005

天篷大元帥

聯合颱風警報中心尚未評級，許多電腦模型預測已有發展反應，圖片網址：https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/

红豆棒冰冰

JTWC于09/2230Z发布TCFA

WTIO21 PGTW 092230
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 10.8N 71.3E TO 15.9N 69.5E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 091800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 11.2N 71.1E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 05
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93A) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 10.5N 72.2E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.2N 71.1E, APPROXIMATELY 313
NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF COCHIN, INDIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS PERSISTENT CONVECTION LOCATED TO THE WEST OF
THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) CONTINUES TO IMPROVE IN
STRUCTURE. A 091556Z MHS 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS THAT THE
BANDING STRUCTURE CONTINUES TO IMPROVE AND CONFIRMS THE DEEP
CONVECTION LOCATED TO THE WEST OF THE LLCC. INVEST 93A IS CURRENTLY
IN AN AREA OF FAVORABLE TO NEUTRAL (15 TO 20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS) AND HAS IMPROVING UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW CHANNELS. SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT (28-30C).
GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 93A WILL TRACK
GENERALLY NORTHWARD, ENTER A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, AND
INTENSIFY TO 35 KNOTS WITHIN 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
102230Z.
//
NNNN

---

红豆棒冰冰

JTWC稍早前升格02A，首报上望60kts

WTIO31 PGTW 101500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (TWO) WARNING NR 001//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (TWO) WARNING NR 001   
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   101200Z --- NEAR 13.4N 70.8E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 345 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 13.4N 70.8E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   110000Z --- 14.6N 70.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   111200Z --- 15.9N 70.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   120000Z --- 17.3N 70.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   121200Z --- 18.7N 70.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   131200Z --- 20.7N 69.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   141200Z --- 22.1N 69.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   151200Z --- 23.2N 69.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
101500Z POSITION NEAR 13.7N 70.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 02A (TWO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 350 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF MUMBAI, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS A CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH THE CENTRAL
CONVECTION SLIGHTLY OFFSET NORTHWESTWARD OF AND PARTIALLY EXPOSING
THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE
LLC IN THE MSI LOOP WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
BASED ON THE DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T2.5/35KTS FROM PGTW AND KNES. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA OF MODERATE (15-20
KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) THAT IS OFFSET BY THE STORM MOTION
BEING IN-PHASE WITH UPPER LEVEL WIND FLOW AND BY EXCELLENT POLEWARD
OUTFLOW. ADDITIONALLY, SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE ARABIAN SEA
ARE VERY CONDUCIVE AT 30 CELSIUS. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TRACKING GENERALLY NORTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ANCHORED OVER INDIA, MAKING LANDFALL NEAR JAMNAGAR
AROUND TAU 96 AND TRACK INLAND. THE VWS IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND
ALLOW A MODEST INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK OF 60 KNOTS BY TAU 48.
AFTERWARD, LAND INTERACTION WILL MOSTLY ERODE THE SYSTEM, LEADING TO
DISSIPATION BY TAU 120. THE AVAILABLE NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN OVERALL
GOOD AGREEMENT UP TO TAU 48. AFTERWARD, THE MODELS SPREAD OUT TO OVER
350 NM WITH NAVGEM AS THE DISTINCT WEST OUTLIER, EFFECTIVELY KEEPING
THE CYCLONE OVER WATER THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST. GIVEN THE FORMATIVE
NATURE OF THE CYCLONE AND THE SIGNIFICANT SPREAD IN THE LONG TERM,
THERE IS OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 101200Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
102100Z, 110300Z, 110900Z AND 111500Z.
2. THIS CANCELS AND SUPERSEDES REF A (WTIO21 PGTW 092230).//
NNNN

jrchang5

IMD 10/18Z升格為Cyclonic Storm，並命名為Vayu。