jrchang5

JTWC升格04W首報，預測將以TS強度襲台。但目前台灣附近環境垂直風切仍然偏大，各大數值預報亦顯示此系統近台時的路徑及強度，仍存有很大的不確定性，應繼續觀察。

WTPN31 PGTW 282100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04W (FOUR) WARNING NR 001   
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   281800Z --- NEAR 14.0N 132.7E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   REPEAT POSIT: 14.0N 132.7E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   290600Z --- 14.7N 131.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   291800Z --- 15.8N 130.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   300600Z --- 17.2N 128.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   301800Z --- 18.5N 127.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   011800Z --- 20.7N 124.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   021800Z --- 23.4N 121.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   031800Z --- 26.8N 119.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
282100Z POSITION NEAR 14.2N 132.5E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04W (FOUR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 373 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF KAYANGEL, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 08
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
281800Z IS 8 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 290300Z, 290900Z, 291500Z AND
292100Z.
//
NNNN

asus5635

18Z的系集預報出爐
GFS似乎不是很看好他的發展



反倒是HWRF對於這個系統有高度期望(?)

jrchang5

JTWC判定29/06Z升格為TS 04W。

WTPN31 PGTW 290900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 04W (FOUR) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 04W (FOUR) WARNING NR 003   
   UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04W
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   290600Z --- NEAR 14.4N 131.7E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 14.4N 131.7E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   291800Z --- 15.5N 130.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   300600Z --- 16.8N 128.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   301800Z --- 18.3N 126.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 13 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   010600Z --- 20.1N 124.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   020600Z --- 21.8N 122.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   030600Z --- 23.6N 119.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   040600Z --- 25.7N 116.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
290900Z POSITION NEAR 14.7N 131.4E.
TROPICAL STORM 04W (FOUR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 417 NM NORTH-
NORTHWEST OF KAYANGEL, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 290600Z
IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 291500Z, 292100Z, 300300Z AND 300900Z.
//
NNNN

老農民版夜神月

目前JTWCT值2.5;SSDT值2.0,CI值2.5.雙雙達標升格TS標準,並在下午0830Z時T與CI值同達2.5.應該是下午JTWC判定升格TS其中一個重要原因

TPPN11 PGTW 291519

A. TROPICAL STORM 04W (NE OF PALAU)

B. 29/1450Z

C. 14.98N

D. 130.97E

E. FIVE/HMWRI8

F. T2.5/2.5/D1.5/24HRS STT: S0.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .50 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT OF 2.5. MET/PT AGREE. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
29/1220Z 14.75N 131.20E MMHS


MARTIN

TXPQ29 KNES 291526
TCSWNP

A. 04W (NONAME)

B. 29/1430Z

C. 15.3N

D. 130.9E

E. THREE/HIMAWARI-8

F. T2.0/2.5/D0.5/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/SWIR/AMSU

H. REMARKS...THIS INTENSITY ESTIMATE WAS DERIVED USING 4 KM IR
DATA. SHEAR PATTERN. CIRCULARY DEFINED CLOUD LINES NEAR LARGE COLD
OVERCAST YIELDS A DT OF 2.0. MET AND PT AGREE. FT IS BASED ON MET DUE
TO UNCERTAINITY IN CENTER LOCATION.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

29/1220Z 15.1N 131.4E AMSU


...KIBLER

20190629 1430 15.3 -130.9 T2.0/2.5 04W NONAME
20190629 0830 14.5 -131.1 T2.5/2.5 04W NONAME
20190629 0230 13.9 -132.1 T2.0/2.0 04W NONAME
20190628 2030 14.2 -132.5 T2.0/2.0 04W NONAME

但最新ASCAT29/1301Z掃出,1506Z製成的風場掃描圖卻稍微不利於04W,EC及GFS的主觀模式亦均不看好04W的未來發展
或許是JMA直到晚上仍持續選擇觀望,連GW或甚至只是個W都沒給的理由之一

老農民版夜神月

破碎且分崩離析的底層

從結構組織上看已稍嫌混亂的風場掃描


SSD最新T值0230Z分析已下降至1.0

TXPQ29 KNES 300306
TCSWNP

A. 04W (NONAME)

B. 30/0230Z

C. 16.1N

D. 128.3E

E. FIVE/HIMAWARI-8

F. T1.0/2.0/W1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...THIS INTENSITY ESTIMATE WAS DERIVED USING 4 KM IR
DATA. SHEARED PATTERN WITH POORLY DEFINED CLOUD LINES AND A CENTER
LESS THAN 75 NM FROM A SMALL AREA OF FLARING CONVECTION YIELDS A DT OF
1.0. MET=1.0 AND PT=1.0. FT IS BASED ON MET DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN
LLCC LOCATION.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...KIM

JTWCT值分析亦已下調至1.5

TPPN11 PGTW 300316

A. TROPICAL STORM 04W (E OF LUZON)

B. 30/0250Z

C. 15.97N

D. 129.20E

E. FIVE/HMWRI8

F. T1.5/2.5/W0.5/24HRS  STT: W0.5/03HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 63A/PBO PRLY ORGNZD LLCC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .25 ON
LOG10 SPIRAL YIELDING A DT OF 1.0. MET AND PT AGREE. DBO
CONSTRAINTS

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
   29/2127Z  15.65N  130.07E  WIND


   VEERKAMP

無論從底層掃描,風場掃描與T值分析來說,今早相較於昨天都是有明顯退步的,至於是否再度重整旗鼓甚至命名,都還有待觀察

ben811018

熱帶低壓０４Ｗ即便有季風水氣支援，
但所處的垂直風切強勁，
能量無法有效集中，
因此，成為颱風的機會大幅降低！

路徑會怎麼走呢？
在太平洋高氣壓導引下，朝西北移動，
明天下午抵達巴士海峽，
週二從台灣南方通過，週三進入福建然後消散。

還會有影響嗎？
０４Ｗ從台灣南方通過進入南海、華南後，
會像一個幫浦，
把西南季風水氣往台灣輸送，
因此無論是否成為颱風，
中、南、東部都有雷陣雨的機會，
其他地區則是以午後雷陣雨為主，
雨勢也會變得較明顯。

特別提醒
週五至週日，
持續受西南風影響，
迎風面的中、南部天氣依然不穩定。

下週天氣不太好，變化快，
多注意小編提醒喔！

天篷大元帥

聯合颱風警報中心：GG
(引文及圖來源：聯合颱風警報中心)

WTPN31 PGTW 301500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04W (FOUR) WARNING NR 008//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04W (FOUR) WARNING NR 008   
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   301200Z --- NEAR 18.4N 126.6E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 23 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   REPEAT POSIT: 18.4N 126.6E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   010000Z --- 19.9N 124.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   011200Z --- 20.9N 122.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
301500Z POSITION NEAR 18.8N 126.1E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04W (FOUR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 395 NM
NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 23
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS A DISORGANIZED SYSTEM WITH A SMALL AREA OF FRAGMENTED
CONVECTION SHEARED SOUTHWESTWARD OF A RAGGED, EXPOSED, AND
ILL-DEFINED CIRCULATION. A 301201Z DIRECT METOP-A ASCAT PASS
INDICATES THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION HAS UNRAVELED INTO A BROAD, WEAK
CIRCULATION. THE SAME ASCAT IMAGERY AND AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM
PGTW AND RJTD INDICATE THE TD HAS WEAKENED TO BELOW JTWC WARNING
CRITERIA AND IS NOT EXPECTED TO RECOVER AS IT TRACKS NORTHWESTWARD IN
THE PHILIPPINE SEA UNDER SUSTAINED HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THIS IS
THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL
HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF
REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 301200Z IS 9 FEET.//
NNNN

老農民版夜神月

JTWC事後修正04W巔峰強度,由原來的40KT略為下調為35KT

WP, 04, 2019062812,   , BEST,   0, 135N, 1333E,  20, 1006, DB, INVEST, S,
WP, 04, 2019062818,   , BEST,   0, 139N, 1327E,  25, 1006, TD,TRANSITIONED, wpB52019 to wp042019,
WP, 04, 2019062900,   , BEST,   0, 141N, 1322E,  30, 1004, TD, FOUR, S,
WP, 04, 2019062906,   , BEST,   0, 145N, 1317E,  35, 1002, TS,  34, NEQ, FOUR, M,
WP, 04, 2019062912,   , BEST,   0, 149N, 1312E,  35,  996, TS,  34, NEQ, FOUR, M,
WP, 04, 2019062918,   , BEST,   0, 153N, 1306E,  35, 1001, TS,  34, NEQ, FOUR, M,
WP, 04, 2019063000,   , BEST,   0, 157N, 1296E,  30, 1000, TD, FOUR, M,
WP, 04, 2019063006,   , BEST,   0, 168N, 1283E,  30, 1002, TD, FOUR, S,
WP, 04, 2019063012,   , BEST,   0, 184N, 1266E,  20, 1004, DB,  34, NEQ, FOUR, S,