老農民版夜神月

  熱帶風暴  
編號：01 E
名稱：Alvin

  基本資料  
擾動編號日期：2019 年 06 月 23 日 22 時
命名日期　　：2019 年 06 月 27 日 23 時
撤編日期　　：2019 年 07 月 00 日 00 時
登陸地點　　：暫無

  巔峰時期資料  
近中心最強風速 ：35 kt
海平面最低氣壓 ：1005 百帕

  過去路徑圖  

  擾動編號資料  
93E INVEST 190623 1200 11.5N 97.0W EPAC 15 1007


  NHC：40%  

1. Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located a few hundred
miles southwest of the Gulf of Tehuantepec are associated with
a tropical wave.  Environmental conditions appear conducive for
gradual development of this system during the next several days,
and a tropical depression is likely to form by the middle of the
week while the system moves west-northwestward away from the coast
of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

以上資料來自：NHC、颱風論壇整理製作

老農民版夜神月

25/0300Z,JTWC發布TCFA.隨後,NHC的48小時形成概率也繼續被提升,目前已至70%

WTPN21 PHNC 250300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 93E)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
190 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13.0N 100.5W TO 16.9N 109.3W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS
IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT
250230Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 13.4N
101.5W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93E) IS LOCATED NEAR 13.4N
101.5W, APPROXIMATELY 225NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO, MEXICO.
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH FORMATIVE BANDING. A 250012Z SSMIS
91GHZ IMAGE SHOWS SHALLOW CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A BROAD
LLC WITH FRAGMENTED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND
GOOD OUTFLOW. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK WITH
STEADY INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
260300Z.//
NNNN

1. Shower activity associated with the broad area of low pressure
located a few hundred miles south of the southern coast of Mexico
has become more concentrated this evening.  Environmental conditions
are expected to be conducive for gradual development of this system
for the next couple of days, and a tropical depression is likely
to form during this time while the system moves west-northwestward
away from the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

jrchang5

NHC、JTWC先後於25/21Z、22Z判定升格為Tropical Depression ONE-E(TD 01E)。

ZCZC MIATCMEP1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP012019
2100 UTC TUE JUN 25 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 105.7W AT 25/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT  13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  25 KT WITH GUSTS TO  35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 105.7W AT 25/2100Z
AT 25/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 105.0W

FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 15.8N 107.7W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 16.2N 110.6W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  30SE   0SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 16.7N 113.2W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 70NE  40SE  20SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 17.4N 115.5W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 70NE  40SE  20SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 18.5N 119.2W
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 29/1800Z 18.8N 122.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 30/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.2N 105.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN


NNNN

WTPN31 PHNC 252200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01E (ONE) WARNING NR 001   
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   251800Z --- NEAR 15.0N 105.0W
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   REPEAT POSIT: 15.0N 105.0W
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   260600Z --- 15.8N 107.7W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 14 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   261800Z --- 16.2N 110.6W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 13 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   270600Z --- 16.7N 113.2W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   271800Z --- 17.4N 115.5W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   281800Z --- 18.5N 119.2W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   291800Z --- 18.8N 122.6W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
    ---
REMARKS:
252200Z POSITION NEAR 15.3N 105.9W.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01E (ONE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1250 NM
SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 251800Z
IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 260400Z, 261000Z, 261600Z AND 262200Z.
//
NNNN

jrchang5

NHC、JTWC先後於26/15Z、16Z判定升格為Tropical Storm，並命名為Alvin。

ZCZC MIATCMEP1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL STORM ALVIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP012019
1500 UTC WED JUN 26 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 109.4W AT 26/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 260 DEGREES AT  12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  35 KT WITH GUSTS TO  45 KT.
34 KT....... 30NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 109.4W AT 26/1500Z
AT 26/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 108.8W

FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 14.7N 111.4W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 15.0N 113.7W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  30SE   0SW  50NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 15.7N 115.8W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  30SE   0SW  50NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 16.4N 117.7W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  20SE   0SW  30NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 17.4N 121.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 30/1200Z 18.0N 124.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 01/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.7N 109.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER LATTO/BRENNAN


NNNN

WTPN31 PHNC 261600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 01E (ALVIN) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 01E (ALVIN) WARNING NR 004   
   UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01E
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   261200Z --- NEAR 14.9N 108.8W
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 14.9N 108.8W
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   270000Z --- 14.7N 111.4W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   271200Z --- 15.0N 113.7W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   280000Z --- 15.7N 115.8W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   281200Z --- 16.4N 117.7W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   291200Z --- 17.4N 121.2W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   301200Z --- 18.0N 124.0W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
    ---
REMARKS:
261600Z POSITION NEAR 14.8N 109.7W.
TROPICAL STORM 01E (ALVIN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1160 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 12
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
261200Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 262200Z, 270400Z, 271000Z AND
271600Z.//
NNNN

老農民版夜神月

目前NHC強度已經給到了50KT,已超越了01E剛升格TD時預估的巔峰強度40KT及升格TS時的45KT.而在01E剛形成或形成前的大部分數值強度預測也確實鮮少有到50KT的,算是發展略微超過了預期一點

系統小而圓的雲系,結構和底層,從外觀看是個不賴且耐看的一個小型熱帶風暴

000
WTPZ21 KNHC 271449
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM ALVIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012019
1500 UTC THU JUN 27 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 113.1W AT 27/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 0NE 0SE 0SW 10NW.
34 KT....... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 113.1W AT 27/1500Z
AT 27/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 112.6W

FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 16.9N 114.9W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW.
34 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 18.5N 117.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW.
34 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 19.7N 119.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 20SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 20.5N 120.7W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.8N 113.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER ZELINSKY

WTPN31 PHNC 271600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 01E (ALVIN) WARNING NR 008//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 01E (ALVIN) WARNING NR 008   
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   271200Z --- NEAR 15.6N 112.6W
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 15.6N 112.6W
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   280000Z --- 16.9N 114.9W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 13 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   281200Z --- 18.5N 117.0W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   290000Z --- 19.7N 119.0W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   291200Z --- 20.5N 120.7W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
REMARKS:
271600Z POSITION NEAR 16.0N 113.4W.
TROPICAL STORM 01E (ALVIN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1055 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 271200Z
IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 272200Z, 280400Z, 281000Z AND 281600Z.
//
NNNN

jrchang5

NHC、JTWC先後於28/03Z、04Z判定升格為一級颶風。

ZCZC MIATCMEP1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

HURRICANE ALVIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP012019
0300 UTC FRI JUN 28 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 115.4W AT 28/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT  14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  992 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  65 KT WITH GUSTS TO  80 KT.
64 KT.......  0NE   0SE   0SW  10NW.
50 KT.......  0NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT....... 30NE  20SE  30SW  40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 45NE  30SE  15SW  45NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 115.4W AT 28/0300Z
AT 28/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 114.8W

FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 18.7N 117.1W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT...  0NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT... 30NE  20SE  30SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 20.1N 119.1W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 30NE  20SE  20SW  30NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 20.9N 120.6W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 21.5N 121.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.4N 115.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH


NNNN

WTPN31 PHNC 280400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 01E (ALVIN) WARNING NR 010   
   UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 01E
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   280000Z --- NEAR 17.0N 114.8W
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 17.0N 114.8W
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   281200Z --- 18.7N 117.1W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   290000Z --- 20.1N 119.1W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   291200Z --- 20.9N 120.6W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   300000Z --- 21.5N 121.9W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
    ---
REMARKS:
280400Z POSITION NEAR 17.6N 115.6W.
HURRICANE 01E (ALVIN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 950 NM SOUTH OF SAN
DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 280000Z IS 23 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 281000Z, 281600Z, 282200Z AND 290400Z.//
NNNN

老農民版夜神月

NHC於28/03Z升格01E.Alvin為一級颶風

870
WTPZ21 KNHC 280231
TCMEP1

HURRICANE ALVIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP012019
0300 UTC FRI JUN 28 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 115.4W AT 28/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT  14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  992 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  65 KT WITH GUSTS TO  80 KT.
64 KT.......  0NE   0SE   0SW  10NW.
50 KT.......  0NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT....... 30NE  20SE  30SW  40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 45NE  30SE  15SW  45NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 115.4W AT 28/0300Z
AT 28/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 114.8W

FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 18.7N 117.1W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT...  0NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT... 30NE  20SE  30SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 20.1N 119.1W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 30NE  20SE  20SW  30NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 20.9N 120.6W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 21.5N 121.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.4N 115.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

]