周子堯@FB

  熱帶低壓  
編號：91 W
名稱：無

  基本資料  
擾動編號日期：2019 年 07 月 17 日 16 時
升格熱低日期：2019 年 07 月 17 日 22 時
撤編日期　　：2019 年 07 月 20 日 19 時
登陸地點　　：台灣 高雄市

  巔峰時期資料  
近中心最強風速
日本氣象廳 (JMA) ：15 m/s ( 30 kt )
中國氣象局 (CMA)：15 m/s ( TD )
聯合颱風警報中心 (JTWC)：20 kts ( DB )
海平面最低氣壓：995 百帕

  過去路徑圖  
無

  擾動編號資料  
91W INVEST 190717 0800 17.0N 117.8E WPAC 15 0


以上資料來自：JMA、CMA、JTWC、颱風論壇整理製作

霧峰追風者

  基本資料  
編號　　　　：91 w
擾動編號日期：2019 年 07 月 17 日 14 時
撤編日期　　：2019 年 00 月 00 日 00 時
91W.INVEST.15kts-1006mb-17N-117.8E

周子堯@FB

JTWC13Z評級Medium

(2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
17.2N 117.2E, APPROXIMATELY 275 NM NORTHWEST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES.
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 171042Z 91GHZ
SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A LARGE AREA OF CONVECTION ABOVE A
DEVELOPING LLC. TWO DISTINCT BANDS OF CONVECTION PERSIST TO THE
NORTH AND SOUTH BUT SHOW LITTLE EVIDENCE OF WRAPPING INTO THE LLC.
HIGH (25-40KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR REMAINS A LIMITING FACTOR FOR
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT, WITH STRONG UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW AND WARM
(30-32C) SSTS SUSTAINING CONVECTION. GLOBAL MODELS ARE SPLIT BETWEEN
TWO DISTINCT SOLUTIONS, WITH GFS AND ECMWF MAINTAINING 91W AS AN
INDEPENDENT SYSTEM AND TRACKING TO THE NORTHEAST BEHIND TS 06W.
NAVGEM, UKMO, AND JGSM INSTEAD PREDICT THAT 91W WILL BE ABSORBED
INTO 06W BY TAU 24. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT
15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
995 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS MEDIUM.

asus5635

JMA:TD 996HPA

ben811018

ec系集
丹娜絲更往北移動後，91w也會逐漸北上
目前來看，還是從台灣南方掃過
環境不好，成為颱風的機會降低

天篷大元帥

聯合颱風警報中心：熱帶氣旋形成警報

WTPN21 PGTW 180230
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 91W)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
130 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 18.9N 119.2E TO 22.8N 121.6E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 180000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 19.4N 119.3E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 11
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 17.2N 117.2E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 119.3E APPROXIMATELY
628 NM SOUTHWEST OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, JAPAN. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 172316Z 91GHZ SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE
DEPICT A LARGE AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED 60 NM SOUTHWARD OF A
CONSOLIDATING LLC. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS 91W IS NOW IN AN AREA
OF MODERATE (15-20KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OFFSET BY STRONG POLEWARD
UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW. SSTS ARE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT AT 30-32C.
GLOBAL MODELS SHOW 91W TRACKING NORTHWARD AND TRAILING TS DANAS(06W)
AS AN ELONGATED DISTURBANCE WITH LINEAR CONVECTION. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
190230Z.//
NNNN

(上為聯合颱風警報中心報文原文，下為機器翻譯(僅供參考)，圖為聯合颱風警報中心預報圖)

WTPN21 PGTW 180230
MSGID / GENADMIN / JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI //
SUBJ / TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT（INVEST 91W）//
RMKS /
1.形成一個重要的熱帶氣旋是可能的
從18.9N 119.2E到22.8N 121.6E的線路側面130海裡
在下一個12到24小時之內。可用數據不合理
此時發布的熱帶氣旋警告。
該地區的風力估計為18至23節。METSAT
180000Z的圖像顯示位於循環中心
接近19.4N 119.3E。該系統正在向東北移動11
節。
2.備註：對接區域（投資91W）以前位於
附近17.2N 117.2E，現在位於19.4N附近119.3E近似
日本OKINAWA，KADENA AB西南628海裡。動畫增強
紅外衛星圖像和172316Z 91GHZ SSMIS微波圖像
在A區南部60海里處埋設了一個大面積的深部對流區域
合併有限責任公司。上層水平分析顯示91W現在在一個區域
強中緯度的中等（15-20KT）垂直風切削偏差
上層水平流出。SSTS有利於30-32C的開發。
全球車型展示91W追踪北向和追踪TS DANAS（06W）
作為線性對流的長期擾動。最大值
持續的表面風速估計為18至23節。最低海洋
水平壓力估計接近1005 MB。有潛力的
在下一個24中發展一個重要的熱帶氣旋
小時很高。
3.此警告將被重新啟動，升級為警告或取消
190230Z.//
NNNN

颱風追求

中央氣象局在今8時91W仍然是低氣壓等級

ben811018

低層依然慘烈大概就這樣了吧XD